Waiting for the news on the new anti Covid-19 vaccines - which, in the wake of Pfizer and the German BioNTech, should arrive this week from Moderna and other competitors - the markets have reopened their doors under the banner of the impetuous recovery of the Orient. Not just from China.
Japan takes off: +2% the Nikkei, which updates the record for 29 years. The Korean Kospi hits a new high since the beginning of 2018, followed by the Sydney Stock Exchange, which has been at its top for eight months. New records also in Singapore and Thailand.
Shanghai and Shenzhen's CSI 300 rose 0,8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0,5% and Mumbai's Sensex 0,4%.
To justify the march of the Bull are the data arriving from the economies.
JAPAN IS GROWING BACK. CIA: +12,5% CAR SALES
This morning Japan announced the return to growth after four quarters of negative GDP: +5% between July and September, at an annualized rate of 21%.
China did even better. Industrial production exceeded growth expectations, registering +6,9% in October (compared to the previous year). Slightly below expectations of 4,9%, retail sales grew by 4,3%, one percentage point more than in September. Car sales are booming (+12,5%). In the meantime, the Dragon's economy is once again agitating the commodity markets.
In October, oil refining rose by 2,6%, reaching an all-time high of 14,1 million barrels per day, from 13,96 in September.
OIL AND COPPER RISE AGAIN
Also for this reason, oil is rising again: +1,3% for Wti, at 40.6 dollars a barrel. The interministerial committee of OPEC enlarged to include Russia will meet tomorrow in virtual mode: at the end of the summit, the non-binding recommendation will be formulated, in view of the official summit of 30 November-1,2st December. It seems very probable that there will be a postponement of the expected increases in production. Meanwhile, Libya has arrived at pumping XNUMX million barrels a day.
At the Shanghai metals futures market, copper rose 3,5% to 53.800 yuan a ton, the highest since mid-2018. Aluminum is at a three-year high.
Wall Street points to another record, the future of the S&P 500 index, which rose 1,4% on Friday, gained 0,7%. In the last session of last week, the sectors most linked to the economic cycle were highlighted: the Russell 1000 index, where these companies are well represented, rose by 2%.
The dollar is declining slightly against the major currencies of the world.
THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT TRADE BLOCK HAS BEEN BORN
The rush of Asia also has strategic motivations. It was a historic weekend for the economies of the East: 15 Asian countries signed a trade agreement which, for Japan, South Korea and China alone, could be worth an increase in GDP of 200 billion dollars a year. But the political value is far greater: Asia detaches itself from US politics (not just Trump's) and claims its technological primacy, net of Washington's or, even less, Europe's choices, giving life to the Rcep (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), the largest trading bloc on the planet, with the explicit aim of leading the global recovery after the pandemic.
In addition, the vaccine effect continues. Czech operators are trying to price the revolutionary novelty: the vaccine will have a significant impact already in the summer, but it will only be possible to return to normal life next winter. This was stated in an interview by the BBC by Professor Ugur Sahin, co-founder of BioNTech, the German biopharmaceutical company that is developing the potential vaccine together with the American Pfizer.
BREXIT AND Türkiye: TWO SPINS FOR LAGARDE
The most symbolic appointment also under the banner of Asia: Thomas Bach, the president of the International Olympic Committee, is today in Tokyo to evaluate the possibility of holding the Olympic Games in 2021, an impossible mission seen by the United States and Europe, but within reach of the Asian continent: in the US yesterday there were 740 deaths per million inhabitants. In China 3, in Japan (where, moreover, the infected, 1.722 on Saturday, are growing again) 15.
The Asian recovery brings out even more the problems of the West, grappling with the problematic transition to power in the White House but also with the nodes of Europe, where two hotbeds of crisis are flaring up.
On Thursday, the Central Bank of Turkey will have to try to stem the crisis of the lira, which is recovering after the resignation of the governor, among other things Erdogan's son-in-law. The markets are convinced that a devaluation in the order of several percentage points is necessary.
The Brexit chapter is even hotter: over the weekend the rift between Dominic Cummings, the strategist of the UK's divorce from the EU, and the government of Boris Johnson took place. The premier, having lost his most important ally with the defeat of Donald Trump, will have to deal with Joe Biden, the US president of Irish origin who has already taken sides against London. Thursday the EU council will be dedicated to the Brexit issue. If there is no agreement on the post-Brexit deal by Thursday, the Commission should trigger contingency plans for a "hard" exit of the United Kingdom from the internal market and from the customs union. The euro-sterling cross was little moved this morning.
During the week, the president of the ECB Christine Lagarde will speak three times (the first today). It could be an opportunity to anticipate part of the economic aid package to be launched within the year.
FT: THE VACCINE WILL BE GOOD FOR THE SPREAD
Il Financial Times underlined this morning that, pending the ECB's intervention, the spread between the BTP and the Bund, which fell below 120 points during the week (to its lowest since April 2018), seems destined to decrease also due to the effect of the anti-Covid vaccine . However, the interview with the President of the European Parliament, David Sassoli, yesterday at Republic. The idea of debt relief and pairing it with sustainability is "gasoline," an EU official said. Besides the fact that according to the treaty it is illegal, some investors may start to question the sustainability of Italy's debt.
BTPs at 0,66%. Prime Minister Conte, Economy Minister Gualtieri and the heads of delegation of the majority met for close the maneuver, which should be sent to the Chambers at the beginning of the week. Among the measures in place: 400 million for the purchase of anti-coronavirus vaccines and drugs for the treatment of Covid patients, 537 million to hire specialist doctors, 335 million for the increase in nurses, 70 million for rapid swabs from refer to general practitioners. Five billion for the Cig Covid, measures such as the Garante Italia loan and the Fund for SMEs, non-repayable contributions and tax relief for those who invest in the South or hire young people under 35 are extended for companies. Today the draft of the maneuver will be discussed in the Council of Ministers.
LAEL BRAINARD TO THE TREASURY GUIDE
While awaiting the arrival of Joe Biden's staff at the White House, the markets are looking at the most important US macro data of the week, i.e. the trend in consumption, slowing down after the aid package for two trillion dollars of the last summer. The accounts of the large-scale distribution giants, from Wal Mart to Target and Home Depot, should be followed in this light. Wall Street's spotlight is also on Boeing: this week the federal agency could give the green light to 737 Maxi flights.
After the electoral halt, the markets take for granted a new injection of liquidity. Also for this reason, expectations are rising for the new US Treasury minister, in all likelihood a woman. The favorite is Lael Brainard, 58, very blonde and youthful, arriving from the Fed. The outsider is none other than Janet Yellen, the former chairman of the Fed.
The listing of Nexi on Piazza Affari should be followed: the company has reached an agreement with the Danish Nets for the integration of the two groups. A European giant of digital payments with 2,9 billion in revenues will be born from the union.
Vodafone's accounts will be published in London.
