Better-than-expected data on US GDP and private sector jobs (ADP estimates) boost Wall Street and European markets, awaiting Ben Bernanke's press conference this evening. The decision on rates and indications on the future of US stimulus policy are awaited, with traders trying to figure out whether the famous tapering will begin as early as 2013. The strength of today's macro data could open the door to an already in 2013.
In the second quarter, the US gross domestic product, in the preliminary estimate, grew by 1,7% against the expectations of analysts who had predicted growth of 0,9%. Consumer spending rose 1,8%, while business investment jumped 9%. More than 10% the earnings related to the construction activity. It should be noted that the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economic analysis department of the American Commerce Department, has changed the method by which gross domestic product is calculated, introducing "intangible elements" such as investments in research and development and copyright. According to calculations this should add 3% to the economy, for a total value equal to the GDP of Belgium. As for the labor market, 200 jobs were created in the American private sector in July, more than the 183.000 expected by analysts. We are now awaiting the official data on the entire labor market, including the public sector, scheduled for Friday.
In the morning, some better-than-expected labor market data were also released in Europe. Istat reported that unemployment stopped at 12,1% in June, slightly down on May by 0,1 percentage points, even if it remains on the increase on an annual basis with an increase of 1,2 points. However, the youth unemployment rate did not stop, rising by around 0,8% on May and by 4,6% on an annual basis. In Germany the number of unemployed continues to fall: in July the total number of jobless decreased by 7.000 units to 2,93 million, against expectations for an unchanged figure. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6,8%, close to the minimum values for two years now.
Wall Street at the end of Europe travels up: Dow Jones +0,53% and Nasdaq +0,41%. Facebook is highlighted, which at the start trades above the IPO price for the first time. The euro-dollar exchange rate remained unchanged (+0,09%) while Wti oil rose (+1,21%) to 104,33 dollars a barrel. Gold fell 1,25% to $1.308 an ounce.
The European squares recovered the losses of the morning and closed positive overall: Paris +0,15%, London +0,76%, Frankfurt stops at +0,06. In red instead Milan -0,37%, weighed down by the collapse of Telecom Italia (-6,27%) which, waiting for tomorrow's accounts, pays for market fears for a capital increase (denied by the company). From the half-year accounts, analysts expect revenues to drop by 7% and drop by more than one billion under the weight of new write-downs. At the bottom of the Ftse Mib also Bper (-4,83%), Diasorin (-3,09%), Prysmian (-3,05%) and Mediaset (-1,91%) awaiting the sentence of the Court of Cassation.
In evidence on the Ftse Mib Fiat Industrial (+2,83%), A2A (+2,19%) and Autogrill (+1,59%) which react positively to the good quarterly results. Fiat Industrial closed the second quarter with a net profit up 30,7%, to 340 million euros; A2A recorded an increase in net profit to 133 million (+6,4% compared to the same period of 2012), and with debt that fell by 298 million compared to the beginning of the year, to 4.074 million. Tod's rose by 1,32%, Generali by 0,89% pending the half-yearly accounts which will be released tomorrow before the markets open. Brembo +0,37%: the group closes the first half with a net profit of 43,2 million euros, up by 21,5%.
Rcs -1,98% on the day of the meeting of the members of the Syndicate Agreement and after the half-year accounts showed a loss down to 125,4 million from 427 in the same period of 2012. The BoD also decided "to continue in the negotiations” for the sale of the property in via San Marco.
