Friday's US employment data, which was good but not excellent, removed the risk of inflation favoring a positive opening of the Asian markets. The Nikkei index rises in Tokyo (+1%), to the highest of the month; the Korean Kospi is also on positive ground +0,7%: the shortage of semiconductors, especially for cars, will last at least until the middle of next year, suggest the latest research. S&P has upgraded Australia's credit rating to triple A.
CHINESE IMPORTS UP 51%, LESS IPO IN HONG KONG
However, the Chinese price lists mark time. The macroeconomic data released tonight are positive but not excellent. Exports denominated in dollars rose by 28% year on year in May, less than expected: the logistical difficulties of the large ports weighed on them. Imports, driven by rising prices, rose in value by 51%, the strongest increase since March 2010. The Wall Street Journal, the distrust on the part of the Beijing authorities towards start-ups in the technology sector: in May alone, 105 start-ups were accused of violating privacy legislation. And so the number of IPOs in Hong Kong is reduced: since the beginning of the year there have been only seven Hang Seng IPOs, the lowest since 2009.
THE US TREASURY: HIGHER RATES? A LITTLE BAD
The positive outcome of the G7 meeting in London, marked by the historic agreement on taxation, has spread a certain optimism among insiders. Returning from London, Janet Yellen gave an interview to Bloomberg: “I'm not at all worried about having some inflation even in the first part of 2022,” she said, adding that right now the important thing is to move forward with the $4.000 trillion spending plan. "Even if market interest rates were a little higher, that's no bad thing, actually, good: right now, they're a plus for the government".
Futures on European markets and on the S&P did not move much this morning. The euro dollar is stable at 1,218. Ten-year Treasury notes at 1,57%.
HOLD OIL, BEGIN NEGOTIATIONS WITH IRAN
WTI-grade oil trades at USD69,4 a barrel, down 0,5%. Brent at $71,5. The delegates involved in the negotiations on Iran's nuclear power are meeting again today in Vienna. It is possible that no major announcements will arrive in the coming days, because on Friday there are elections for the new president of the Republic and, at the same time, the renewal of Parliament and the Islamic councils of the city will be voted on.
SOY AT THE TOP: +70% PUSHED BY BIODIESEL
Meanwhile, the race for raw materials continues. Among these, there is one at its peak since 2008: soybeans. The benchmark soybean oil future is up 70% year-to-date. It is not only the demand from the food industry that is driving up the price: its use as a biofuel is growing at a gallop, one of the effects of the White House's green turnaround.
TAX ON THE BIG: NEXT ROUND IN CORNWALL
For now, the futures of Big US securities affected by the fiscal project approved by the G7 of finance ministers are not reacting, which could also be the expected game changer in the game to make the web giants pay taxes. But the process has just begun. This will be discussed over the weekend at the first G7 in Cornwall. The understanding provides for the introduction of the principle of a global tax rate of at least 15% for large global companies. Big companies will pay taxes where they do business by levying taxes on 20% of profits above the 10% profit threshold.
The new rule does not seem to displease Facebook. The vice president of international affairs, Nick Clegg, wrote on Twitter in laudatory terms: "A step in the right direction", which makes the fiscal context more uniform and less unpredictable.
THURSDAY THE ECB: NO TAPERING IS PLANNED
The ECB directorate will be held on Thursday, the most eagerly awaited monetary policy meeting of the week. Observers agree that Christine Lagarde will be careful not to bring up the question of tapering, i.e. a reduction in purchases, despite inflation having risen from 1,6 to 2%, for the first time in years on the levels of the Frankfurt bank's target. Indeed, according to Barclays, the purchases of securities will also continue in the third quarter of the year at the pace of the last three months: the Bloomberg consensus is for 20 billion of debt purchased per week, until September.
US CONSUMER PRICES: EXPECTED +4,7%
Also on Thursday, the most awaited macro figure will arrive: the trend in American consumer prices. Economists expect US inflation to rise from 4,2% in April to 4,7%. The data on the labor market, lower than expected (559 thousand employed against a forecast of 674 thousand) partially eased the tension on interest rates.
FITCH CONFIRMS BBB- FOR ITALY
Fitch's verdict on Italy arrived on Friday evening. The agency confirmed the BBB- rating with a stable outlook. Fitch expects GDP to grow by 2021% in 4,8 for Italy, supported by a "strong recovery in the second half of the year". For 2022, GDP is estimated at +4,3%.
On the internal front, attention today turns to the Budget Commission of the Chamber with the hearings on the Sostegni bis decree: the Bank of Italy is on the agenda and, in the evening, the Minister of Economy and Finance, Daniele Franco. The examination of the provision will then begin in the Commission and the deadline for the presentation of the amendments is scheduled for 16 pm on Thursday 10 June.
WALL STREET, NEW ARM Wrestling ON GAME STOP
On Wall Street, "meme stocks", i.e. the stocks favored by day traders as opposed to bearish hedge funds, still hold sway. After AMC, which concluded its capital increase, the spotlights return to Game Stop, already the protagonist of a record rise and fall in February. In view of next Wednesday's budget meeting, the stock (+1.200% since January) is back on track despite short selling: the company's leader has been called Ryan Cohen, 33, the man who knew how to sell Chewy to the PetSmart site for 3,35 billion dollars, a myth in the history of e-commerce.
The annual WWWDC conference dedicated to Apple developers also begins tonight. There is anticipation for Tim Cook's announcements on the characteristics of the new MacBook and the new Apple processors.
MERKEL REJECTS THE RIGHT IN SAXONA
It was an intense weekend plus an electoral plan. In Saxony-Anhalt the Cdu is surprisingly in command with over 36% of the votes, while the Afd, a far-right party, stops at 22%. A victory that could act as a driving force in view of the national elections in September where the leader of the Christian Democrats Armin Laschet will try to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor.
The center-left party that rules Mexico has lost control of the lower house in the elections, according to the first exit polls.
In Peru, the results of the presidential elections indicate a narrow advantage for the candidate of the left, Pedro Castillo, over the conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori.
