The new increase in oil, which has risen above 110 dollars a barrel, is an eloquent indication that the Stock Exchanges do not see an improvement in the Ukrainian tragedy in the short term. Meanwhile, the list of companies that have excluded relations with Russia is getting longer, from Apple to Google to Visa and MasterCard credit cards. US President Biden (“Putin doesn't know what will come his way,” he said in Union speech) announced the closure of the airspace to Russian flights while Maersk and MSC have interrupted maritime traffic with Russia. The markets thus adapt to the climate of war finance:
After the heavy retreat of the stock markets yesterday in Europe, this morning the Tokyo Nikkei index is down by 1,7% in the final session. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong and the CSI 1 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists are down, but less than 300%.
Yesterday the S&P500 closed down 1,5%, a drop that brought it to the lows of the session. The Nasdaq was down 1,6%.
Defense stocks soar with gains of more than 3%
The Australian Stock Exchange is still advancing
The war economy has its opportunities. Sydney rose this morning for the fourth day in a row +0,3%, the expression of a stock market linked to raw materials. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported tonight that the Australian economy grew by 4,2% year on year in the fourth quarter.
Taipei's Taiex index is just below par. Seoul's Kospi gains 0,4%. Mumbai BSE Sensex -1,3%.
The Bund returns to negative values
The situation on the bond markets is different. The race for T-Bonds continues: the 1,74-year Treasury Note rises to XNUMX% yield. Jerome Powell speaks to the United States Congress today.
Yesterday, German Bund futures gained nearly 2%, a daily change not seen since the 2011 sovereign debt crisis. The yield fell to -0,08%, from +0,12% the day before.
Raw materials gallop. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, up 4% yesterday, today gains 1% to 120 points, the highest since 2014.
The euro, down 0,8% yesterday, consolidates its positions at 1,111, the lowest since March 2020.
Before opening, futures are flat in both Europe and the US.
According to American media, intelligence is trying to clarify an increasingly crucial question for the White House: that of Vladimir Putin's mental health
Lagarde: taxis and Qe don't touch
At the end of the face to face with the German chancellor Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB, tweeted: “Scholz and I had a good meeting. The ECB is implementing the sanctions decided by the EU. We will do what is necessary within our mandate to ensure financial and price stability. This will limit the implications of Russia's horrific war against Ukraine for the European economy."
An explicit signal on rates and on QE that falls at a time when the markets are adapting extremely rapidly to a world with very modest growth rates, marked by the results of a war that is becoming ever more devastating and destructive. Eurozone money markets have thus moved to price less than 20 basis points of rate hikes by December, against 40 basis points before the Russian invasion last Thursday.
The Btp runs more than the bund: spread at 146
Risk aversion rises, in parallel the expectation of a tightening by the ECB is abruptly reduced:
This is how government bond purchases are running: the yield on the ten-year Bund is back in negative territory, but the race for BTPs is even stronger. The yield on the Italian ten-year bond falls by 38 points to 1,42%, to its lowest since June 2020 against 1,76% yesterday.
The spread slips to 146 points from the 160 of the previous closure.
Given the rally of the BTP, writes Ifr, speculations are back according to which the Treasury could be tempted to place a new 15-year syndicate, an operation that the market has been waiting for a few weeks, despite the very fragile context.
Capital flees the stock exchanges in search of safe havens. Milan. below 4,14%, it is the worst.
In 2021 GDP +6,6%, inflation in February +5,7%
Istat has certified a final growth of the Italian GDP of 6,6% in 2021, against a drop in public debt from 155,3% to 150,4% of GDP. According to preliminary estimates, inflation in February was 0,9% month-on-month and 5,7% year-on-year, a record high since 1995.
Other European markets are also under fire: Paris loses 3,94%; Frankfurt -3,85%; Madrid -3,48%; Amsterdam -2,23%; London -1,71%.
The Moscow Stock Exchange is closed for the second day in a row. The ruble is trying to stabilize, just below the historic lows, yesterday +3% against the dollar.
Sale Bayer, the pipeline with Russia towards insolvency
In contrast Bayer (+2%), which closes 2021 with a profit of 1 billion euros, from the red of 10,5 billion in 2020 which was weighed down by the write-downs for the settlement to resolve tens of thousands of lawsuits in the US on the Roundup, Monsanto's herbicide accused of causing cancer. The group's turnover increased by 8,9% to 44 billion euros.
Financial stocks (Eng -11%) in the travel and leisure sector are in great difficulty after the disappointing results of the gambling group Flutte.
Shell in London limits damages to 1,06%. The British major will abandon all of the group's operations in Russia, including a major liquefied natural gas plant.
The news from Reuters weighs on the continental energy sector that the company Nord Stream 2, based in Switzerland and which manages the gas pipeline of the same name which connects Russia to Germany bypassing Ukraine, is considering filing for insolvency.
Maersk and MSC cut routes with Russia
The world's leading shipping company, Maersk, has announced it will suspend cargo shipments to and from Russia. So did Msc.
The Markit manufacturing PMI showed a slight slowdown in growth in the euro zone in February, although activity remains at high levels. But supply chains, already hit hard by the pandemic, are facing further disruption as airspace closures inevitably affect the transport of goods across the skies as well.
In Milan, Eni, Terna and Leonardo are saved
In Piazza Affari, only three blue chips avoid a heavy drop: Eni +3%, supported by the sharp rise in oil, together with Saras +4,3%; Terna +1,8%, at the center of national energy supply plans; Finally, Leonardo's march continues (+1,5%), closing another day of earnings for Defense stocks. However, the rise of Fincantieri stops (-5,30%).
Among industrialists, Prysmian contains losses -0,9% after the publication of the results. The group closed 2021 with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 308 million euros, up 73% compared to the 178 million of the previous year.
Telecom Italia collapses, write-downs for 4 billion
Telecom Italia withdraws 9% on the eve of the Board meeting on the accounts and on the new plan: the operators are now convinced that KKR has renounced the takeover bid, if anything falling back on its involvement in the network spin-off plan and subsequent integration with Open Fiber. But the main reason for the decline lies in the massive cleanup ahead: 4 billion in writedowns. due to an impairment on assets and a provision of 540 million relating to the agreements with Dazn, the accounts will turn red forcing Tim to cancel the coupon for ordinary shares.
The Stellantis plan does not enchant the Stock Exchange
Stellantis -6,83% on the day of the presentation of strategic plan to 2030. Carlos Tavares has announced that he aims to double turnover by 2030, bringing it to 300 billion euros, from 152 billion in 2021 and to reduce CO50 emissions by 2% by that date. But the CEO, generous with industrial projections and financial promises (operating margin in double-digit annual growth, rising dividends and buybacks) was stingy with details on the next Italian choices. And so the share was absorbed by the heavy losses of the sector, conditioned by the slowdown of the German groups (Volkswagen -7%) on which the embargo against Russia weighs and by the negative trend of sales in the sector in February (-22%) on which the announcement effect of the incentives that have not yet arrived weighs.
New stop for Pirelli, Sogefi rejected by Intesa
Things are no better for Pirelli (-6,9%), one of the stocks most targeted since the beginning of the crisis. Bad fall in the automotive sector also for Sogefi (-8,36%): the negative market prospects prompted Intesa Sanpaolo to reduce its opinion on the share from add to hold, with the target price going from 1,6 to 1,24 EUR.
Luxury suffers: Moncler -9,1%, Brunello Cucinelli -6,5%. Lastly, the banking sector did not recover. This time, however, the black jersey is not up to Unicredit (-7%), preceded in the race to the bottom by Intesa San Paolo (-7,7%) and Mediobanca (-7,6%).
Heavy Tinexta (-10%) after 2021 results, in line with expectations on revenues and Ebitda and slightly worse for net financial debt, and the plan to 2024. Banca Akros reduced the recommendation to 'reduce' from 'neutral '. Assiteca shoots up (+40%), aligning itself with the price at which the British insurance brokerage group Howden Group Holdings announced the purchase of 87% and the subsequent takeover bid.
