Panic selling has already vanished. The markets, taking for granted the most bitter scenario for Ukrainian democracy, are looking to the future which certainly won't be easy, after a new Iron Curtain reappears in the East. Piazza Affari, meanwhile, recovered positions following Thursday's Nasdaq recovery. The Milan Stock Exchange, like the other European Stock Exchanges, it advances in positive territory +1,9%, recovering part of the collapses of the eve. TO Wall Streetmeanwhile, the wait for the inflation figure to be released in the afternoon has already replaced the war emergency: futures -1,3% signal a negative start to the session.
The EuroStoxx 50 index is up 1,5%.
Salt also the Dax of Frankfurt +1%, while the contraction of Germany's GDP is confirmed - 0,3% in the last quarter of 2021, Year on year the GDP rose by 1,8%,
Salt too Paris +1,4%. This morning's data from France brings inflation to the fore. EU harmonized consumer prices rose by 4,1% in February, much more than the +3,3% in January. The consensus was expecting +3,7%.
The bag of Moscow is on the rise by 10%, from -38% yesterday. Ruble +2%.
Stock market up, energy stocks dominate in Milan
The reaction of the market is entrusted to Piazza Affari to utilities, in view of strong interventions on energy, from gas to renewables, as underlined bybriefing in Parliament by Mario Draghi.
Heading the list of increases are only energy-related stocks.
In the first place there is Prismian +4,7% which will undoubtedly play a key role for electric transmission in new investments. They follow with increases around 4,5% Enel, Italgas and Terna, obvious protagonists of the Italian run-up to a future of less electricity dependence, after so many suicidal postponements.
Between the biggest discounts Pirelli stands out -2,25%, followed by Mediobanca -2% (real war brings down the appeal for the clash on Generali's seats). Ferrari moved little -0,4% which probably discounts the difficulties of the Russian oligarchs, its good customers.
Still on the rise Leonardo +1% after the agreement in Europe for the construction of a new military drone, Euromale. Some components will be produced in the Grottaglie plant in Puglia.
Snl advances +2,83% which made it known in a report that Apple is worth a fifth of its revenues, down from 24% in 2020.
Curb the price of oil at 100 dollars, così come il natural gas at $104 per megawatt hour (-22% from Thursday's peak).
The spread drops, BTPs and CCTs are placed
The Treasury placed 8,25 billion between Btp and Cct. 4 billion five-year bonds were assigned at a yield of 1,07%, 58 basis points higher than that of the January auction. Placed 3 billion 10-year BTPs (+ 43 basis points) and 1,25 billion six-year CCTs.
The spread drops to 160 points.
The stock market rises, the cynicism of the markets
The rebound in stocks while desperate Ukrainian resistance still rages can leave a bad taste in the mouth. But such cynicism has more than one explanation:
- The investment firm CFRA has analyzed the US market reaction on the occasion of 24 geopolitical events that took place after the Second World War; the S&P 500 index lost an average of 5,5% from its previous peak to its trough following these events. In short, the panic selling dictated by geopolitical crises tends to be short-lived and then leave room for a wave of new investments.
- The rebound can be the result of closing bearish positions very pushed, perhaps waiting to reopen them later on lower bases. Purchases of physical positions serve to unwind derivatives trades.
- Even more important is the belief that central banks, especially the ECB, will have to slow possible monetary tightening, also postponing the closure of the Qe. “Interest rates – comments Alessandro Fugnoli – will rise more or less as announced, but they will bite less because inflation will be higher than it would have been without the geopolitical complications. In practice, therefore, the Central Banks will not radically change the normalization program but will turn a blind eye and a half to inflation"
