Greece returns to frighten the markets. Meanwhile, new disturbing signals are arriving from China: inflation in November fell to 1,4%, confirming that the economy is slowing down very rapidly. Here are the two bogeymen who suddenly appeared on the horizon of the Stock Exchanges, disturbing an apparently calm atmosphere.
Shanghai, -0,4% this morning, seems to have absorbed the beating of the eve for now. Yesterday afternoon, in fact, the list fell by 5,4% following the decision by the authorities to no longer accept corporate bonds with a rating lower than "double A" as collateral, canceling auctions of around 500 billion yuan from the market ( just over $80 billion)
The drop in Tokyo -1,6% was heavier: as always, the tensions on the markets caused an inflow of capital against the yen, which recovered against the dollar. Wall Street was also down (but not too much): the Dow Jones index fell by 0,29%, S&P -0,12%. But the Nasdaq advanced .54%. New sharp drop in oil prices: Brent (-1,3%) is below 66 dollars, crude oil (-1,4%) at 63 dollars.
But the spotlights (and fears) of the markets are once again focused on the eurozone.
BLACK TUESDAY FOR THE OLD CONTINENT: MILAN -2,8%
The Black Tuesday balance sheet is heavy: the Paris Stock Exchange fell by 2,5%, Frankfurt -2,2%, Madrid -3,18%%. In Milan, the FtseMib index closed down by 2,8%. The sell-off in the afternoon was triggered by the collapse of the Athens Stock Exchange: -13%, the worst fall since 1987. For bank stocks, the losses range from 13 to 20%. Greece's 8,06-year government bond yield rose to 7,14% from 2,02%, dragging up periphery bond yields. The yield on the 133-year BTP rose to 0,688%. The gap with the German Bunds, the safe haven security par excellence, thus widens to 12 points, falling to a yield of 0,420, a new all-time low. French Oat rates are also down. The 0,335-month Bot auction is being held today in this context. On the eve of the gray market, the yield rose to XNUMX% from XNUMX% in November.
SAMARAS PLAYS THE JOCKER BEFORE FACE THE TROJKA
The sales were triggered by the government's decision, after unsuccessful talks with the troika, to play in advance, starting the votes in Parliament next week to elect the new President of the Republic (the one in office expires in March). Prime Minister Antonis Samaras wants to be able to count on a solid majority before starting the new recovery plan to be agreed with Brussels.
But if the qualified majority necessary in the third ballot is not reached (possible, if not probable scenario), early elections will be inevitable: the polls show the anti-European party Tsipras as the favourite. The uncertainty will last until December 29, the date of the third and decisive vote by Parliament.
The victory of the anti-Brussels left could blow up the already shaky castle of the Fiscal Compact. Starting from Spain, crossed by Catalan independence pushes and by the possible affirmation of Podemos!, another movement determined to review the agreements within the EU.
PRAET (ECB): THE DECLINE IN OIL IS THE WEAPON OF DRAGONS
Peter Praet, chief economist and member of the board of the ECB, took care of partially calming the waters. Speaking in Washington, Praet stressed that the central bank cannot afford the luxury of ignoring the collapse in oil prices. In short, the drop in crude oil is Mario Draghi's first ally: if prices continue to fall, Frankfurt will have to extend its purchase program to the government bond market, a "strong sign of the will to maintain an accommodating stance for a long time ”. Tomorrow the ECB will assign the second tranche of Tltro loans to the banks that have requested it.
BANKS, THE MOST AFFECTED SECTOR
The banking company paid the highest price for the sudden Greek crisis: -3,6% the drop in the European Eurostoxx index. Milan was no exception: Unicredit lost 3,8%, Ubi Banca -4,4%, Intesa -2%. The losses of Banco Popolare (-4,7%) and Banca Popolare di Milano (-4,2%) were heavier. Carige, on the other hand, remained unchanged awaiting the verdict of the ECB.
ONLY MEDIASET FLY. TELECOM: OI' IS CLOSER
Only Mediaset escaped the deluge: the Alfa stock recorded a rise of 2,8% thanks to surprisingly positive data on advertising revenues. During a meeting with advertising clients today, the Publitalia concessionaire communicated an anticipation of the closing figures: Mediaset's total revenue for November marks a growth of over 7% compared to that achieved in November 2013.
Telecom Italia was negative (-1,43%). Yesterday the agreement between Oì and Altice was announced for the sale of Portugal Telecom (7,4 billion): thus eliminating one of the obstacles to a possible agreement between the Brazilian manager and Tim Brazil. Icbpi confirmed the neutral recommendation and the target price of 1,03 euro.
OIL, THE MAJORS CUT INVESTMENTS: GIU' SAIPEM AND TENARIS
Another difficult day for oil stocks, overwhelmed by the decline in crude oil. Eni -2% to 14,66 euros after hitting a low of 14,36. Jefferies cut Eni's target price to 13,80 euros from 15,50 euros, Hold recommendation confirmed. In the US broker's report, the target prices of almost all the large European and American companies in the oil sector are cut. The fall in oil prices prompted ConocoPhillips to cut its 2015 budget by 20%. The decision weighs on Tenaris -0,72%, also subject to a Reduction of the price target by Natixis and on Saipem -1,92%. The decline of Saras was heavy (-4,42%). Utilities are also down: Enel loses 4,4%, Enel Green Power -4,7%, Snam -5,4% continues its downward trend.
FINMECCANICA -5%: OFFERS FOR ANSALDO BEFORE CHRISTMAS
The decline has not spared the industrialists. Fiat Chrysler, -4,1%, closed at 10,52 euros. Finmeccanica (-5%) leaves part of the gains of the last few weeks on the ground. According to the latest rumors, the holding has invited the Japanese group Hitachi and the Chinese consortium led by Insigma to present binding offers for the transport division (Ansaldo Sts and Breda) in the week before Christmas. Prismian -3%.
Luxury is also under pressure: weak Moncler -1,2% and Yoox -5,06%, which was affected by the disappointing sales of the British Asos.
