Woe to defying the central banks, goes a stock market saying well known to the navigators of the price lists. The confirmation came yesterday, when a new session seemed to loom, the fifth in a row, under the banner of further declines in bond yields, both in Europe and in the USA under the pressure of some negative macro data: decline in new construction sites and consumer confidence index both in the USA and in Germany, the market most sensitive to the risk of recession. In short, the script seemed already written: dollar and falling rates, banks in difficulty. It is the Brexit effect that complicates the picture.
Was it like this? “Not even in a dream – replies Giuseppe Sersale of Anthilia – US equities took off with momentum, treasury rates maintained their upward trend, and the dollar recovered”. The reasons? “It was one of those sessions in which finding reasons for the movements is difficult even ex post”, confesses the strategist.
THE US CENTRAL BANK READY TO SHOPPING
An explanation, perhaps, must be sought in the East: speaking yesterday in Hong Kong Eric Rosengren, the president of the Boston Fed (and voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee) argued that, even in the absence of a recession, the US central bank could restart to buy bonds to effectively anticipate a possible worsening of the cycle.
The message produced immediate results. The gap between the three-month bond and the ten-year bond rose to –1 (from minus 5), reducing the risk of recession. And the shares have regained momentum, both in Europe and in the USA. Has the great fear passed? Soon to say, it will be necessary to wait at least for the development of the negotiations between the US and China which resumes tomorrow and you understand what the Russian roulette underway can reserve for the British Parliament. But the dovish attitude of central banks comforts the markets.
THE JUDGE STOPS THE APPLE RALLY
Yesterday Wall Street closed in positive ground: Dow Jones +0,55%, S&P 500 +0,72%, Nasdaq +0,71%.
The increase in the technological list was much higher in the afternoon, thanks to purchases on Apple, after the presentation of the new Apple services. But the stock, which closed down by 1% sacrificing a robust rise, was showered by the court's decision which banned, at Qualcomm's request, the sale of iPhones equipped with Intel chips.
Carnival was also down sharply (-8,7%): the cruise colossus revised its forecasts for the summer downwards.
The final increase was favored by the performance of financials +1%, after difficult days.
Even more important is the performance of oil +1,5%, supported by the decline in US stocks and production cuts by OPEC.
The dollar is recovering after Treasury yields moved away from 15-month lows, and the euro has stabilized after timid signs of optimism in the eurozone.
PARIS LEADS EUROPE (THANKS TO XI PURCHASES)
Even the Stock Exchanges of the Old Continent have recovered positions after four sessions marked by uncertainty. The reaction of the Bunds, the epicenter of the tensions in the bond markets that have so frightened operators in recent days, obsessed with the risk of recession, has given the markets a new tone. Conversely, the Queen's Gilts suffer, victims of the unseasonable fog that envelops UK finance.
Piazza Affari +0,38 at 21.135 points, on a positive day despite the weakness of the banks.
Frankfurt (+0,64%) and Paris (+0,89%) are more tonic, supported by the rally of Airbus after the signing of contracts with China. Flat Madrid +0,01%.
LONDON: THE TORIES FOLLOW THE MAY
London's Ftse 100 +0,3%. The pound appreciates at 1,322 against the dollar (+0,15%). Jacon Rees-Mogg, the leader in Parliament of Brexit supporters, spoke out this morning in favor of the separation proposal presented by Theresa May's government: this agreement is better than staying in the European Union. UK parliaments will today vote on a range of options, including a "no-deal Brexit" and a new referendum, before trying to steer the government.
This morning the Japanese stock market was down at the end of the session, while China's stock markets rose, despite the drop in profits of large industrial companies recorded in the first two months of the year.
Tokyo's Nikkei index loses 0,4%. Nissan, in this list, loses 4%. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong (+0,7%), the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists +1% were positive. Seoul on parity. Mumbai +0,4%.
GOOD CTZ AUCTION, TODAY IT'S THE BOT'S TURN
Positive session yesterday for the Italian bond market, refreshed after the start of the Treasury auctions.
Securities for a total of 2,92 billion euros were placed: in detail 2 billion Ctz in November 2020 (the maximum offered) and 920 million Btpei in May 2028.
In closing, the yield differential between Italy and Germany on the ten-year stretch narrows to 249 basis points from 252 at the start of the session (and an intraday high of 255) and from 253 yesterday.
The 2,473-year rate stands at 2,49% after closing at XNUMX% in the previous session.
Today will be the turn of the Bot auction and Thursday of the Btp one. As regards the Bot auction, the Treasury will offer six-billion euro six-monthly bonds.
However, the highlight will be the following day's auction with 5 and 10-year BTPs, together with the CCTeu. With regard to BTPs, the debut of the new 5-year bond maturing in July 2024 stands out. For the new five-year bond, the Treasury has envisaged the issuance of a large quantity: from a minimum of 3,25 billion to a maximum of 3,75 billion.
The Treasury also announced that it will offer a new Ctz and new 5- and 7-year BTPs in the second quarter.
SAIPEM, MONCLER AND SOUL SHINE
Oil, luxury and asset management enlivened yesterday's session in Piazza Affari. Under the impetus of Goldman Sachs, which raised the recommendation on the stock to "Buy" from "Neutral" with a target price of 6 euros (from the previous 3,6 euros), Saipem rose (+1,85%). Tenaris was down (-0,6%), demoted by the US broker from neutral to sell, target price from 15,8 to 13 euros.
Moncler advances (+1,7%): Morgan Stanley has raised its target price to 37 euros from 35,5 euros. Down jackets lead the way in favor of Chinese consumers. Ferragamo +1,3%.
Anima (+2,8%) has taken care of handling managed savings. The company is looking for growth opportunities, through mergers and acquisitions, in Italy and also abroad. The managing director Marco Carreri says it in an interview with Sole24Ore. Carreri speaks of an alliance with Mediobanca, up 1,4%, which "wouldn't be crazy".
ENEL STILL ON THE RUN. SPOTLIGHT ON HERA
The spring of utilities continues. Enel grinds new records (+1,46% to 5,7 euros), on which Goldman Sachs raised the target price from 6,2 to 6,35 euros, confirming the buy recommendation. Hera also stood out (+1,85%).
Among renewables, great performance by Erg (+6,28%) driven by the opinion of Banca Akros after the purchase of wind power assets in France. The same upward change for Falck Renewables.
Weak bankers. Only Ubi Banca resisted above parity, posting +0,17% at the end of the session.
On the other hand, Intesa (-0,26%), Unicredit (-1,39%) and Banco Bpm (-1,29%) closed in the red.
MOLMED RETURNS TO THE HIGHEST, GOOD INCREASE OF FRIEND
Molmed (+5,51%) returns to its highest level since September 2018, reached a few days ago, after the authorization in Italy of the clinical trial of CAR-T CD44v6, a drug against leukemia.
D'Amico (+3,7%) has signed an agreement for the sale and lease back of a ship (MT High Voyager) which allows the company to generate cash for an amount of 9,6 million dollars.
