The storm that practically paralyzed rail traffic between London and Glasgow serves as a prologue to the climate summit that will occupy the front pages of the planet's media for ten days. It starts with the commitment agreed in Rome to limit the increase in global temperature to 1,5 degrees thanks to the rather pharisaic intention of allowing investments in coal only at home, but prohibiting foreign ones. All of this on the day when statistics warn that coal has become the second source of energy ahead of nuclear power in the USA, while in China, the great absentee G-20 Roman, the prices of the raw material, irreplaceable for now, are falling under pressure from the central bank.
TO G-20 PACT OF STEEL BETWEEN EU AND USA
The financial markets, on the eve of the meetings of the central banks of the USA and the United Kingdom, do not seem to pay too much attention to the great global summits, even if in Rome there was talk, for the first time, of the problems of logistics and an important agreement between the EU and the US on steel and aluminum: the EU will be authorized to import certain quantities of metals without tariffs from the United States.
JAPAN BETS ON NEW STIMULI
The first trumpet call of the week comes from Tokyo. The Nikkei is running (+2,2%) after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's party won the elections again and surprisingly kept the majority of seats in Parliament: the result should make it easier for the new government to launch of new economic stimulus measures.
ELECTRIC CAR BOOM IN CHINA, TECH SUFFERS
The stock markets of South Korea, India and Australia also rose, but the Chinese Stock Exchanges lagged. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists is on parity. Tonight's data on economic activity in China only partially eased fears of a slowdown triggered last night by the official PMI index, which showed the drop in manufacturing activity to 49,2, below the line between growth and stagnation. However, the Caixin index on the expectations of Chinese companies most devoted to exports rose this morning to its highest level since June, to 50,6 points, better than expected.
Meanwhile, XPeng, the manufacturer of luxury electric cars, is flying after registrations tripled in October compared to a year earlier, despite the shortage of chips.
Hong Kong is down, penalized by the drop in its leading high-tech names. Alibaba is down 2,5%.
US AND EU FUTURES UP
Wall Street futures are up slightly. For the S&P500 index and for the Nasdaq, October was the best month in almost two years. The Nasdaq closed October at +7,2%, the S&P 500 at +6,5%. The Dow Jones is also doing well: +5,8%.
The season of the quarterly has arrived at the end of the first half: for the moment only one company out of five has missed the expectations of the consensus.
The 1,56-year Treasury Note trades at 0,3%. Commodities are quiet with WTI oil down 83,3% to $XNUMX.
FED DECIDES TO TAPERING RATES UP IN LONDON AND SYDNEY
All the spotlights are on Washington, where the most eagerly awaited board of the Federal Reserve begins tomorrow. It is almost a given that President Jerome Powell will announce the tapering Wednesday evening after the meeting is complete. However, it is a question of understanding the methods of intervention: most expect a cut of 15 billion dollars of purchases per month (10 in Treasuries, 5 in Mbs) on the current 120 billion. the downsizing will be completed in June/July 2022 and a rate hike in the immediately following period is not excluded.
Another key event will be the numbers of the labor market, which is struggling to recover from the declines recorded during the pandemic. The forecast is 400 new jobs created (against 194 at the end of September). Unemployment should remain stable at 4,8%, while wage growth could slow down. The Ism manufacturing index on business activity is also arriving today.
BUFFET COUNTS, MC DONALD'S VEGAN HAMBURGER
Alibaba, Moderna and Air Bnb (Thursday) and that of Berkshire Hathaway (Friday) stand out among the most eagerly awaited quarterly reports on Wall Street during the week. Long awaited in the USA for the launch of McPlant, the McDonald's vegan hamburger launched in collaboration with Beyond Meat, the producer of vegetable meat.
Thursday, however, will be the turn of the Bank of England. Here too, indications of an interest rate hike have accumulated in recent weeks. Two other central banks will meet during the week: the Royal Bank of Norway, which has already raised rates, and the Bank of Australia, which will have to decide whether to adjust to the rising prices of market rates or whether to intervene on the yield curve which it is flattening.
TOMORROW THE PMI INDEXES AND THE MANEUVER IN THE SENATE
As for Eurozone data, tomorrow will be the turn of the manufacturing PMI, Wednesday the unemployment rate, Thursday production prices and finally Friday retail sales.
After the green light from the Council of Ministers, the Maneuver arrives tomorrow in the Senate for parliamentary examination, with some issues that are still very hot, from the selective extension of the Superbonus, against which the 5 Star Movement is fighting, to pension measures, judged too timid by the unions, who are preparing to take to the streets for this.
Also on Tuesday, the Finance Commissions of the Chamber and the Senate held the hearing of the director general of the Treasury Department of the Ministry of the Economy, Alessandro Rivera, on recent developments in the Monte dei Paschi di Siena affair.
TODAY THE RYANAIR ACCOUNTS, TOMORROW UNDERSTANDING
An intense week on the corporate front also in Europe: we start today with Ryanair, then Wednesday it will be the turn of BMW, Intesa and Lufthansa, Thursday with Enel, Leonardo, Mps, Toyota, Moderna, Airbnb, Uber, CNH, Snam, Wizz Air and Euronext. Finally, on Friday it will be the turn of Banco Bpm, Iag, Juventus, Buzzi and Bper.
BTP AT THE MASSII SINCE JULY, HURRY ON THE TELECOM FRONT
Piazza Affari closed the month of October with an increase of 4,6%. The 1,16-year BTP rate has risen to 2020%, a level of yield not seen since July 126. The spread with the Bund widens to 23,7 basis points, the highest since January. The tensions affect the Spanish Bonos in the same way: it's not just an Italian problem. In Piazza Affari, despite the semi-festive nature of the day, the spotlight could turn on Telecom Italia, after the company's main shareholder, the French Vivendi, with 11% of the capital, described the results for the third quarter as "disappointing" presented by the management led by Luigi Gubitosi. Five directors asked the chairman Salvatore Rossi to convene an extraordinary board to review the group's strategies, take stock of the reorganization and also discuss governance. According to Bloomberg, Rossi would have convened the board meeting for next Thursday 0,3 November. Telecom stock settled on Friday at 7 euro, the lowest level ever reached, which corresponds to a capitalization of less than XNUMX billion euro.
