All stopped, as expected. The Fed, after reiterating that "strong" data continues to arrive from the economy, did not touch rates, but renewed the signals of a final upward adjustment, the fourth of 2018, at its December meeting. In the meantime, the yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is at its highest level since 2011, at 3,22%.
Wall Street, committed to digesting the new political balance (although expected) after the elections, was thus stingy with surprises: Dow Jones +0,04%, S&P 500 -0,25%, Nasdaq down by half a point. In evidence Walt Disney +3% after the accounts published in closed markets.
The oil market was much more lively, falling sharply due to the increased supply of producers who were betting on the effects of the embargo on Iran, which failed due to the generous exemptions granted by Washington and the tensions in Asia, grappling with the first effects of Donald Trump's tariffs.
Brent yesterday lost 2% to 70,6 dollars a barrel, this morning it is flat at the same price, at its lowest level since April. The WTI slipped to around $60. It is possible that on Sunday, in the information meeting of the OPEC countries, plus Russia, the foundations will be laid for a production cut, to be implemented in the following weeks.
Here is the picture of the price lists already aimed at the weekend.
WEAK CHINA AND JAPAN
China's stock markets are down. The drop in Hong Kong -1,9% in particular was heavy. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists is 1%.
The Commission for the regulation of banks and insurance has stated that a third of the loans granted by the credit system must be destined to companies not controlled by the state. A sign of the financial difficulties of the private sector.
The Chinese currency, the renmimbi, depreciates to 6,95 against the dollar.
End of the week in gray also for Japan. The difficulties in offloading the increase in steel and aluminum onto the sales lists emerge from the automotive quarterly reports. The Nikkei index loses 0,9%.
DRAGONS: THE RECOVERY CONTINUES, THE COURSE DOESN'T CHANGE
Once the effect of the US vote is over, Europe is once again focusing on its problems. Mario Draghi, speaking in Dublin, played down the risk of a slowdown in the economy. "Some data relating to specific sectors and the results of some polls have turned out to be weaker than expected - he said - but the latest confirming information suggests that the widespread expansion of the euro area should continue". Thus, expectations of an easing of monetary policy remain disappointed even if Draghi himself underlines that "our choices are not set in stone" or, if necessary, we change.
MILAN BRAKS AFTER THE ESTIMATES OF BRUSSELS
The climate, increasingly tense, of the confrontation between Rome and Brussels does not change. The new economic forecasts of the EU Commission on growth have rejected the numbers of the Italian budget.
Thus Milan was the rear light of the Eurozone: -0,57%, at 19.429. Frankfurt (-0,45%) and Paris (-0,13%) are also in negative territory. Madrid (+0,10%). Livelier London (+0,33%).
According to Brussels, the Italian deficit/GDP in 2019 will rise to 2,9% (against the 2,4% expected by the executive) if "the measures programmed" by the Budget law are applied, such as basic income, the Fornero reform and public investments which “will significantly increase spending”. In 2020 the fateful ceiling of 3% will be breached, reaching 3,1%.
TRIA CRITICISES TECHNICAL DEFAILLANCES IN BRUSSELS
The forecasts of Brussels, underlined the Commissioner for Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici, "are more cautious" than the Italian ones with regard to consumption and investments and estimate the costs of servicing the debt to be higher. The dialogue continues "but there is no need to talk about compromise"
Minister Giovanni Tria replied: the “clear contrast on the figures derives from an inattentive and partial analysis of the budget law and the trend of the Italian public finances, despite the information and clarifications provided by Italy. We are sorry to note this technical failure by the Commission".
SPREAD TO 294, BTP 5,5 BILLION ARRIVAL
In this context, the weakness of the debt market continues but the BTPs, after the decline following the publication of the European estimates, have recovered some positions. The spread continues to move just below the 300-point barrier at 294 (against 290 on the previous day). The 3,396-year yield closed at 3,421 (against a maximum of XNUMX%.
Meanwhile, the Treasury continues its endless collection. The mid-month auction of medium and long-term securities will be held on Tuesday 13 November: 4 and 5,5 billion euro on offer between 3-year (2-2,5 billion), 7-year (1,25- 1,75 billion) current benchmark Btp at 3, 7 and 20 years (750-1,250 million.
UNICREDIT, TURKEY WEIGHTS
Multi-faceted day for the credit sector focused on examining the accounts. The sector index lost 1,67%, weighed down by Unicredit, down 3,81% on the heels of the results for the first nine months. The institute ended the third quarter with revenues of 4,814 billion euros, beating the consensus of analysts at 4,771 billion. In the first nine months of the year, profit rose to 3 billion euro (+4,7% year on year. Third quarter revenues are above expectations, but not profit (875 million), on which they Government bonds, the devaluation of Yapi and provisions for lawsuits weighed in. Cet 1 falls to 12,11%. Profits were taken on Intesa (-1,27%), losses on Ubi copies (-1,99%) .
BANCA BPM, THE REDEMPTION ARRIVES. MAXI-FINE FOR UBS
Instead, Banco Bpm shines (+2,98%), the best stock on the list thanks to the results but above all to the trend of reduction of NPLs: the institute aims to sell bad loans for an amount exceeding 3,5 billion euros and up to a maximum of 8,6 billion.
The trial of Ubs continues in Paris, accused of helping French citizens to evade taxes. After a seven-year investigation and the failure of negotiations to reach a plea deal that did not go through, the prosecutor's office asked for a fine of 3,7 billion euros.
ACCOUNTS OK FOR MANAGEMENT, GENERALI'S PROFIT UP
Accounts in order for management. The market rewarded the results of Poste Italiane (+2,09%) which closed the first 9 months with a net profit of 1,056 billion euro, up by 45,9%.
Azimuth also did well (+1,92%). In addition to the accounts, the board also approved a ten-year strategic plan whose objectives include raising 4 billion through the launch of 18 new funds in the key segments of alternative asset management.
The results of Finecobank (+2,6%) and Banca Generali (+0,9%) were also rewarded.
Little move Generali. Waiting for the 2019-2022 plan which will be presented on November 21st. The company closed the nine months of 2018 with a net profit of 1,855 billion (+26%), in line with the consensus, also thanks to the disposals.
TELECOM DEVALUES GOODWILL
Telecom Italia shares were in great turmoil (+1,35%) on the day of the board meeting. Yesterday morning the company reached an agreement with Open Fiber to arrive at network sharing. The agreement, which should have remained confidential, triggered purchases on the Stock Exchange (maximum +3,4%). The board of directors approved the write-down of goodwill by two billion and communicated that the objective of bringing the ratio between adjusted net debt and operating margin to 2,7 times will not be achieved.
Mediaset -3,64% also held back by the crash in Frankfurt of the German broadcaster Prosieben Sat, one of the possible partners of the biscione collaboration agreements, which came to lose more than 17% after the cut of the payout ratio to 50% from 80-90 %, a provision of up to €400 million and a reduction in revenue estimates for the year.
TOD'S AND MAIRE TECNIMONT COLLAPSE
Out of the main basket, Tod's sinks to -10,88% after the publication of the accounts under the ax of analysts, disappointed by the lack of results of the corporate restructuring. JP Morgan cut the target price to 50 euros from 58.
Maire Tecnimont also fell sharply (-7,75% to 3,57 euro) after reaching the new low since May 2017 at 3,4940.
