14 pm, 20 pm in Italy. Silence, Powell speaks. Nothing seems further from the Kabul apocalypse than the Jackson Hole resort hall from which the Fed governor, surrounded by colts, bears and trout-rich rivers, will address the markets, eager to finally learn more about how tapering works , or the slow retreat from market intervention. Yet, for the White House after the tragic embarrassment in Afghanistan, the economy is the best, if not the only, card to play to beat the Republicans in the mid-term elections.
THREE BANKERS AND BLACKROCK FOR THE END OF TAPERING
For this reason, Jerome Powell will have to find the right balance between the ever more numerous hawks (even BlackRock is asking for a stop to liquidity) and the risks that could lead to a change of course. . In the last few hours, three members of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee have spoken out in favor of an immediate start to the program to reduce bond purchases. But in 2013, the Fed's hike announcement plunged emerging markets, today something like this can happen again in Brazil, Turkey and other markets not supported by commodities. The Stock Exchanges are waiting, apparently without particular tensions: the forecast is that Powell, who is playing for confirmation, will be able to find a square by confirming the forthcoming start of soft version tapering.
FOR THE FAR EAST THE BEST WEEK SINCE FEBRUARY
Asia Pacific stocks moved up and down in a modest range: we are at the end of the best week since February, a result favored by the rebound of the big names in Chinese tech. The MSCI Asia Pacific index, which excludes Japan, has gained 3,2% since last Friday. The weekly balance of the Hang Seng Tech Index is +9%. The performance of another list with a large presence of high technology, that of Taipei, was also very positive: Taiex +5%. This morning the index of Shanghai and Shenzhen is up 0,3%.
THE RICH CHINESE FIND THEMSELVES "GENEROUS"
Xi's squeeze on the wealthy is having its first effect: Seven Chinese billionaires have donated $5 billion to public relief agencies, 20% more than in the whole of 2020. China's central bank said tonight it would participate to the development of remote areas of the country with various measures of a financial nature, among these, the reduction of reserves for the banks that provide loans to companies present in these disadvantaged areas.
USA PRICE LISTS IN RED, COSMETICS ARE BACK
American markets are cautious. The eve of Jackson Hole was dominated by speeches by James Bullard and Robert Kaplan, two Fed members who are calling for a rapid course correction, also given the positive economic data. After the flurry of records, the stock markets fell: Dow Jones -0,54%, S&P -0,58%, Nasdaq - 0,64%. Salesforce on the rise +2,7%, favored by the increasing use of hybrid formulas for home/office use. Coty leap +14,1%: the recovery of offices coincides with the return to the consumption of cosmetics. The future of the S&P500 is at parity.
MEDIOCRE AUCTION FOR THE T BOND AT SEVEN YEARS
The 1,34-year Treasury Note traded at 62%, little moved after an auction of 1,176 billion dollars of seven-year bonds that Jefferies economists have defined as mediocre. Euro-dollar exchange rate slightly moved at 1.800. Gold at $1,4 an ounce. WTI Oil lost 1% yesterday, is up XNUMX% this morning.
ECB SILENCES THE HAWKS OF GERMANY AND BELGIUM
The indices of Piazza Affari and the other main European stock exchanges were all negative yesterdayi awaiting the Jackson Hole meeting and more details on the Fed's "tapering". While awaiting the Fed's moves, the minutes of the last ECB meeting have been published, from which it emerges that, after a long and tense debate, directorate members agreed to keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period, even in the face of a more pronounced rise in inflation. “Some members – read the minutes referring to Belgium and Germany – maintained their reservations, since the final wording did not sufficiently address their concerns”. The next meeting of the ECB, to be held on 9 September, will have to decide whether to maintain a high volume of bond purchases or let them gradually decrease, given the decline in yields and the weakening of the euro recorded from July onwards.
BUSINESS PLACE WORSES IN THE FINAL -0,76%
Piazza Affari worsens in the final -0,76% to 25.861 points. In June, the turnover of Italian industry increased by 3,1%, +28,4 on an annual level. The other Stock Exchanges are in red: Frankfurt -0,45%, Paris -0,16%, Madrid -0,88%, London -0,33%. Consumer confidence falls in Germany due to an increasingly difficult pandemic, Sentiment among German exporters loses momentum. “Expectations in the manufacturing sector collapsed to 16,6 points in August – claims the Ifo institute – down from 23,1 points in July. Export expectations in the electrical and electronics sector have fallen sharply”.
DWS (DB) IN THE SIGHT OF THE SEC
The case of Dws, a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank, also made itself felt on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. According to what was first reported by the 'Wall Street Journal', the SEC and also the US federal prosecutors are investigating DWS's use of sustainable investment criteria in the assets it manages.
AXEL SPRINGER BUYS POLITICIAN FOR $1 BILLION
Axel Springer, owned by KKR, has announced that it will acquire Politico, the US group that owns the web page of the same name that provides political news, as part of the digital information services network that the German publishing group intends to build. Value of the transaction: 1 billion dollars.
VIVENDI +4,2%: UNIVERSAL PROMISES A SPRINT DEBUT
The macroeconomic signals coming from France are mixed: confidence in the commerce sector is falling, that of businesses is rising. Vivendi advanced by 4,2% on the wave of expectations for the listing of Universal which promised a dividend immediately after landing on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange on September 21st.
BTP, YIELDS UP TO 0,68%
The yield of BTPs has been traveling at its highest for over a month in anticipation of the Jackson Hole appointment. The ten-year benchmark travels around 0,68%. The yield differential between Italy and Germany is 108 points. The Treasury has assigned the maximum amount of 3,75 billion between Btp-short and indexed 2026.
UTILITY STILL UNDER FIRE
The target practice on regulated utilities continues, seen in declining profitability with the new tariffs. The worst performance is that of Terna -1,84%, followed by Italgas -1,51% and Snam -1,42%. Little move Atlantia -0,19% after the news that Abertis sold its entire stake in the concessionaire of the A65, Autoroute de Gascogne. Cnh and Enel also lost ground, both -1,06%. Banks in red: Bpm -1,29%, Bper -1,31%, Intesa Sanpaolo -1,09% and Unicredit -1,02%. On positive ground Buzzi Unicem +1,35& and the oil companies: Tenaris +0,93%, Saipem +0,3%. Plus sign only for four other blue chips: , Azimut +0,81%, Interpump +0,26%, Diasorin +0,19% and Telecom +0,11%.
BUT AVIO +3% RETURNS TO ORBIT
Avio extends in a declining stock market that has so far snubbed the Italian jewel of space: only +7%, compared to +38% of the Ftse Star, the reference index. During the night between 16/17 August the nineteenth flight of Vega took place successfully, the vector developed and built by Avio, which perfectly put the new generation French satellite Pléiades Neo 4 into orbit. The next Vega flight is scheduled fourth quarter 2021, while the maiden flight of the Vega C in 2022.
