Will the Bull survive the tragic bullfight in Barcelona? Today the European lists will have to deal with the 844 Catalans injured on October 81st, the 128st anniversary of Francisco Franco's inauguration in government, including 1,1773 hospitalized (two in serious condition). The independence leader, Carlos Puigdemont, has announced that this week there will be the announcement of independence. There will be a general strike tomorrow. The euro suffers but not too much: 0,3 this morning against the dollar (-XNUMX%).
TOKYO: TANKAN AT THE HIGHEST SINCE 2007. KOREA: EXPORT +35%
The tension in the heart of the EU, for now completely absent from the scene, overshadows the golden moment of the global economy, confirmed this morning by the sensational data of the Tankan, the rising sun's health index based on account one hundred thousand companies. The overall index marks a figure, +15, which has not been seen since 1991. The business trend is at its highest since 2007, thanks to the machinery boom trend, +22, facilitated by a weaker yen (-0,4, XNUMX% this morning against the dollar).
On the Stock Exchange, however, the Nikkei index marks only +0,2%, under pressure from Nissan (-5,4%): the automaker has suspended deliveries to Japan to remedy the defects revealed by the latest inspections by the authorities.
On the contrary, Sidney (+1,1%) and the other open lists: Seoul celebrates the record trend of exports (+35% thanks to steel and chips), the Chinese markets are on holiday for the whole week to celebrate the anniversary of the birth of the Communist Party. Yesterday, before the break, the PMI del Drago were released. The official figure was positive (index rising to 52,4 against 51,7 previously), but the Caixin index, concentrated on SMEs, fell back to 50. The Indian Stock Exchange is also on holiday today.
A slow start also for the oil market, which closed a roaring quarter (+20%). Brent traded this morning at 56,73 dollars a barrel (against 57,14), US crude at 51,65 dollars. Exploration activity has restarted in North America and after 7 weeks of decline there has been an increase in active drilling rigs.
BUSINESS PLACE STARTS AGAIN FROM +18% FROM JANUARY
The last stock market quarter of 2017 starts with an excellent performance behind it. In September, the best month of the year, Piazza Affari achieved a rise of 4%. In the last three months the increase was 7%, in the nine months it was 18%. The Eurostoxx 600 index +5% also achieved the best result of the year. For the US markets it was the sixth consecutive semester up (record since '97). A rally largely linked to the low level of the cost of money, now running out in the US.
CENTRAL BANKS, FAVORITE FALCO WARSH FOR FED
September's labor market data will be important, if not decisive. The forecast speaks of a sharp slowdown (100.000 hires against 158 in August) also due to hurricanes. Not a few speeches by the governors of the Fed. Robert Kaplan, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker and Bill Dudley from New York will speak. A speech by Janet Yellen is also scheduled, this time at the Saint Louis Banking Conference. But the market is already focused on the aftermath: the favorite for the succession is Kenneth Warsh, a Republican, in favor of a more severe policy on rates. Above all, however, Donald Trump's moves on the tax reform front count.
PMI DATA TODAY, MOODY'S UPDATES ITALY RATING ON FRIDAY
A day full of macro data both in Asia and in the USA (ISM index, construction trend). In Europe, the PMI data of the most important economies, including Italy, will be announced this morning. In Europe, the march towards the ECB meeting on 26 October, in which the fate of QE will be decided, should be noted. In the meantime, the spotlight on the minutes of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB last 7 September will come on during the week, when the central bank targeted the strengthening of the euro. Today Mario Draghi will speak in London.
In Italy, the hearings on the update note to the Def will be held tomorrow before the Budget commissions of the Chamber and the Senate. We start with Istat; followed by the Bank of Italy, the Court of Auditors and the Parliamentary Budget Office, while at the end of the morning it was the turn of the Minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan. The green light for the Chamber should arrive on Wednesday 4. Moody's will update Italy's rating on Friday.
FROM TODAY THE ASSIGNMENT OF THE NOBELS
The awarding of the Nobel prizes begins this week. We start today with medicine, followed tomorrow by physics and Wednesday by chemistry. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday. For the prize for Economics it will be necessary to wait for next week, as well as for Literature.
TELECOM, GOLDEN POWER AT THE START
Week full of appointments for the companies of Piazza Affari. In the spotlight Telecom Italia. Already today the golden power could enter the agenda of the council of ministers. The fine for failure to notify regarding the acquisition of shares of Vivendi in Tim is under discussion. The Minister of Economic Development, Carlo Calenda, reiterated: "I am in favor of welcoming international investors, but whoever comes must know that there are rules to be respected and must know that, if these rules are not respected, the government will react".
TODAY DATA ON THE CAR. SANTANDER CHOOSES BENETTON
Watch out for Fiat Chrysler. Data on car registrations in Italy and the USA will be released during the day. Today in Rovereto Sergio Marchionne will receive an honorary degree in Mechatronic Engineering.
Atlantia scored an important pinto on Friday in the race to conquer Abertis. The consortium headed by the Benetton group on Friday enlisted the Banco de Santander, the most influential and powerful Spanish financial institution.
GIMA LANDS ON THE STAR, WEDNESDAY PIRELLI ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE
Today the shares of Gima TT land on the Star, the freshman of the Vacchi group placed among institutional investors at the maximum price of the fork with a capitalization of 1,1 billion.
Wednesday 4 will see the return to the Stock Exchange of Pirelli, the most important IPO of the year after the placement of securities for 6,3 billion euros, in the low end of the price range.
The corporate agenda today includes the quarterly reports of Mondo TV and Trevi.
