EUROS AND BTPS ON THE CAROUSEL AT THE LUNA PARK IN ATHENS. SAIPEM SHOCKS -13,6%, ONLY TELECOM ITALIA HOLDS
Heavy day for price lists under the perfect storm of multiple negative factors. In Milan, the Ftse Mib index lost 1,15%. The decrease in Paris and Frankfurt was just under one percentage point. The agreement on Greece has not yet arrived and, despite the reassurances of the contenders, the risk of an accident leading to default is now palpable.
Meanwhile, the market has taken note of yet another winning prophecy from Mario Draghi: "Let's get ready for a phase of high volatility" had said the president of the ECB yesterday and the facts proved him right. The dollar exchange rate was under pressure throughout the day. The euro exceeded the 1,13 bar for a good part of the session and then partially lost the ground gained.
The trend changed after the publication of the new IMF forecasts on the US economy: GDP will not rise more than 2015% in 2,5 (against the previous estimate of 3,1%). The Washington bank issues a warning to the Fed: the rate hike this year risks being premature.
The fluctuations in fixed income were even more sensational: the 1-year Bund crossed the 0,83% threshold and then fell back to 2,25%, with anomalous excursions for monetary lists. The yield on ten-year BTPs rose to 2,13% and then fell, towards the end of the day, to 3% (-XNUMX basis points).
Why is there so much volatility? Draghi, among the causes of the phenomenon (which doesn't disturb him that much) listed the recovery of inflation and economies. But he also mentioned technical reasons, perhaps predominant. In these days the speculation that he had opened debt positions in euros by exploiting zero interest rates (the cause before the bubble accelerated by the purchases of Bunds favored by the scarcity of raw materials) is disassembling carry trade operations. Therefore, it closes debts with banks by paying euros (hence the demand for currency), selling government bonds and buying other assets. Which, at least in principle, the president of the ECB does not dislike.
On the corporate front, the shipwreck of Saipem: -13,58%. Dealreporter wrote that the company is considering a capital increase of 2-2,5 billion euros. Saipem has released a note in which it states that for some time "evaluation of various refinancing options in support of its industrial strategy has been underway, also with a view to direct recourse to the market".
The other oil companies are lagging behind: Eni -1,9% Tenaris -3,7%. On the eve of OPEC summit tomorrow Brent loses 2,7% and slips to 62 dollars a barrel. Utilities are also down: Snam -1%. Terna -1%. Enel -2,4%. The best blue chip is Telecom Italy +1% boost from Inwit placement details.
Among the industrialists, Prysmian -1,3%: the cable company has appointed Goldman Sachs to explore possible investment opportunities in the sector. Industrial Driver's License -1% Fiat Chrysler -0,6%. Between banks Unicredit -0,4% ed Understanding -0,7%.
