The financial week begins on a positive note, boosted by stronger-than-expected growth in the US economy. The Chinese stock markets rebound after the heavy declines of the last few days (-5,6% in five sessions). The Csi index of Shanghai rises by 0,3%, Hong Kong +0,5%.
The data on industrial production released over the weekend (+13,9% in March) give hope that government stimuli are finally having an effect. Confirmation should arrive tomorrow with the PMI data. The Korean Kospi also recovered (+0,7%). In the red only Sydney (-0,6%), weighed down by the drop in oil prices. In fact, oil fell below 72 dollars after Donald Trump's dry warning to Opec. Anadarko decided over the weekend to start negotiations for the sale to Occidental, which offered 38 billion dollars for the Texan shale oil giant.
TOKYO STOP FOR THE NEW EMPEROR
However, it will be an anomalous week for the financial markets. Not so much for the May Day festivities (spotlights on Paris due to the presence of gilets jaunes at the trade union march), but above all because Japan, from Wednesday and for ten days, will stop to celebrate the beginning of the Reiwa era, i.e. Prince Naruhito's ascension to the throne after Emperor Akihito's resignation. For the first time, the global markets will have to do without the capital of Tokyo, a great reservoir of liquidity. And there are those who fear problems for the banks, despite the precautions taken by the system.
FED, RATES DON'T TOUCH
Not the whole world will be celebrating: Wednesday evening Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will announce the decisions of the US central bank after the board meeting in a press conference. The markets expect confirmation of the current rates, ie in the range between 2,25% and 2,50%, especially after the GDP data in the first quarter, which flew to +3,2%, beating all forecasts. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and the US trade representative, Robert Lightizer, will fly to Beijing to resume negotiations on tariffs. Donald Trump expects the deal to be concluded by May.
SPAIN AWARDS SANCHEZ, BUT THE MAJORITY IS NOT THERE
The Eurozone faces the confidence index test today. The Spanish elections confirmed, as expected, the excellent performance of the socialists, who, however, for a handful of seats, will not be able to launch the government together with Ciudadamos' allies, unless they reach an agreement with the Catalan separatists. In the meantime, data on GDP, among the liveliest in the Eurozone, will be released during the week. The same, alas, cannot be said for Italy, even if it is forecast that, by a meager 0,1%, the Bel Paese will avoid a technical recession. Little satisfaction, just like for Standard & Poor's narrowly escaped downgrading of the rating: it is only a brief postponement until after the vote, when the infringement procedure by the EU Commission could be triggered.
TOMORROW THE NEW TEN-YEAR BTP MAKES its DEBUT
In this climate, the Treasury will complete its month-end auctions tomorrow. In particular, the new 3-year BTP, coupon 5%, offered for three billion euros will make its debut. A 2,5-year bond for XNUMX billion and a Ccteu will also be offered.
In terms of central banks, the meeting of the Bank of England should be noted, at the same time as the resumption of parliamentary activity in the United Kingdom, still desperately seeking a solution to the Brexit conundrum.
Numerous economic statistics of the week. In the Eurozone, the unemployment figure stands out, which according to forecasts should remain unchanged at 7,8%, the lowest level since the 2008 crisis. A result that could favor the hawks who oppose the renewal of the ECB's Tltro loans under too favorable conditions.
The most important statistic concerns the US labor market. 180.000 new jobs are expected, while unemployment should remain at 3,8%. Also to watch are data on auto sales, house prices and manufacturing activity.
In China, data from manufacturing activity indices will be released, much awaited after the latest slowdown.
Pay attention to the inflation data in Turkey: a sharp increase could force the Central Bank to tighten Erdogan's dislike.
BEYOND FCA: RICH COUPON FOR BANCA IFIS
The corporate calendar is also very intense. In Piazza Affari, the appointment on Friday stands out with the accounts of Fiat Chrysler at the end of the first quarter, which arrive after a 2018 archived with results that the group has defined as "record" and marked by a change at the top caused by the untimely death of Sergio Marchionne. “It was an extraordinary year with record performance – commented the CEO, Mike Manley, in the conference call with analysts on the 2018 accounts – and 2019 will be a milestone because we will return to distributing a dividend. It hasn't happened in a decade."
The list of corporate appointments for the week is long. Today Banca Profilo, Saes Getters and Banca Ifis will detach the coupon, which will pay a dividend equal to 6,5% of the stock market price.
Cir and Cofide will examine the accounts for the first quarter. Along the list of assemblies, including Bologna Airport, Avio, Brunello Cucinelli, Biesse, Maire Tecnimont and Tamburi.
BOEING, SHOWDOWN AT THE ASSEMBLY
In the United States, the key meeting of the week will be that of Boeing: activist funds and institutional investors will put top management on trial for errors and omissions related to the 737 Max accidents.
Wall Street is looking more closely, however, at the first quarter accounts of Apple and Alphabet. Analysts assume a further decline in iPhone sales (-17%) while a sharp increase in profits of the parent company of Google is expected, driven by the excellent quarter of YouTube, Google Play and activities on the Cloud.
RAIN OF RESULTS BEHIND APPLE AND ALPHABET
However, there will be numerous corporate communications both in the USA and in Europe. Among others, the quarterly accounts of: ConocoPhillips, BP, Lloyds Banking Group, Bank of Scotland, Royal Dutch Shell, Sainsbury's, GlaxoSmithKline, General Motors, Volkswagen, Advanced Micro Devices, Samsung, General Electric, McDonald's, Merck, Mondelez, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Qualcomm, CBS, HSBC, Mastercard and Adidas. to
