Even with some seasonal ailments, Taurus, for now, is standing up to obstacles. But the increase in raw materials and the parallel race in yields, especially of T-bonds, advise the markets to be cautious. This is suggested by the alarm of John Williams, president of the New York Fed, who yesterday evening warned of the "catastrophic consequences" of a failed agreement in Washington on the public debt ceiling. Barring an agreement by mid-October, the US Treasury will not be able to meet the administration's demands, a risk that is already sending 1,5-year yields flying above 30% and 2-year yields above XNUMX%. For heaven's sake, in the end an agreement will be found, even if the divisions between and within the parties are very deep.
CHINESE FACTORIES ARE STOPPING. 2% OF GDP AT RISK
It is less easy to get to grips with energy problems, both in the West, where natural gas prices continue to rise, and in China, which is forced to shut down factories in the North, where iPhones are assembled, due to the risk of blackouts. Like in Jilin, a city of 13 million inhabitants, where yesterday we dined by candlelight. The boom in demand weighs heavily, but also the decision to suspend the use of coal due to pollution. According to Goldman Sachs, 44% of Chinese industry is affected by the lack of electricity, a node that will lead to a 2% cut in GDP in the last quarter. So there's no shortage of problems. But they will be overcome, warns BlackRock, which continues to bet on the Dragon: yesterday it raised the weight of China in its portfolios to overweight.
THE CENTRAL BANK SHUT DOWN THE EVERGRANDE CRISIS
The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is up by 0,4%. The Hang Seng index gains 1,5%, with all real estate stocks rallying. The People's Bank of China has released a statement in which it says it intends to commit itself to rebalancing the property market and defending the rights of home buyers. Evergrande shares rise by 8%.
Elsewhere in Asia Pacific, Tokyo's Nikkei lost 0,3%, Seoul's Kospi 1% and Sydney's S&P ASX 200 1,5%.
RAW MATERIALS AT HIGHEST SINCE 2016, BRENT OVER 80
The rush of raw materials continues. The Bloomberg Commodity index, up this morning for the fifth consecutive day, is at 101,7, the highest since 2016. Levels never seen in recent years, even for oil. Brent crude surpasses $80 a barrel for the first time in three years, while WTI crude is up 0,8% to $76 a barrel.
RESIGNATION TO THE FED FOR SUSPICIOUS PURCHASES
Wall Street futures are mixed, with Nasdaq down, Dow Jones up. During the night, the Republicans blocked a bill intended to finance the activity of the White House.
For the first time in the century-old history of the FD, two presidents, Eric Rosengren of Boston and Robert Kaplan of Dallas, had to resign for buying shares during their tenure.
The 1,50-year Treasury Note yielded 0,31%. The two-year rate is at its highest level in the last eighteen months, at XNUMX%, also due to the disappointing auction of bonds on this maturity.
LAGARDE: EU INFLATION WILL RISE, RATES WILL NOT
“If temporary shortages of materials and equipment limit production more persistently than currently anticipated, they could spread more strongly along the price chain,” concedes Christine Lagarde. But even if this happens (and it is not certain), the ECB will not bring the rate hike forward to 2023. "Absolutely not" replied the president of the European Central Bank in the hearing before the European Parliament, also defending the purchases of Pepp securities, in the crosshairs of the hawks. “There are no doubts that the Pepp worked – he said – it is unequivocal that the ECB's Covid anti-crisis purchase plan has been effective: according to the institution's technicians, it has increased economic growth by 1,8 points and 1,2 ,2020 points inflation in the period 2021-XNUMX″.
BTP AND BUND AT HIGHEST SINCE JULY
The confirmation that inflation could turn out to be higher than estimates came at the same time as the upward indications on the yields of US T-bonds: the 2-year bond jumped more than 1,17% at the start, while the euro/dollar cross fell below XNUMX.
Bond market yields under pressure. The yields of the BTPs, in line with the Bunds, have risen to their highest levels in three months, around 0,79%. German stocks trade at -0,23%. The spread was slightly moved, stable around 102 points.
MILAN +0,63%, FRANKFURT POSITIVE
Piazza Affari closed the session with an increase of 0,63%, at 26.132. Frankfurt, observed on a special basis after the vote, lengthened at the start but ultimately limited gains to 0,28%. In the rest of Europe, the brightest is Madrid (+1,45%), while Paris (+0,19%) and London (+0,16%) are moderately up.
ZOOPLUS +4,25%. RAISE WAR OVER PET FOOD
The battle for control of Zooplus is heating up even more (+4,25%) after the Swedish Eqt (owned by Nestlé) re-launched on the offer of the US fund Hellman for the online pet food retailer.
Oil companies show great dust: in Paris TotalEnergies rises by a generous 3%, in London Shell +4,82%.
BANKS AND OIL PUSH BUSINESS PLACE
Also in Milan, confidence in the restart of the post-covid economy increases the propensity for risk and favors the rise of the sectors most sensitive to the cycle to the detriment of the defensive ones: energy, banks and insurance companies stand out, while pharmaceuticals and tech lose ground.
UNICREDIT +5,1%. IN OCTOBER THE AGREEMENT ON MPS
The credit sector runs. Unicredit leads the race (+5,10%), best blue chip and at new highs of the year. The economy ministry believes that an agreement with Unicredit on the privatization of Banca Mps (+1,10%) is within reach and could be announced in October, according to what four sources close to the dossier told Reuters.
Intesa Sanpaolo +2%. Bper is also advancing (+3,84%), followed by Bam (+2,88%). Carige goes against the trend (-0,71%).
GENERALS, SPLIT COUNCIL. OF THE OLD BUY
In cash Generali (+1,6%), the highest since 2010 in the wake of the purchases of Leonardo Del Vecchio's Delfin. The agreement with Caltagirone and the Crt Foundation rose to 12,56%. Yesterday, after a long and lively council from Leone, which lasted for five hours, the start of the procedure for the presentation of a board list for the renewal of the board was approved by a large majority (9 in favor and 4 against). it will expire in the spring, entrusting the task to the president Gabriele Galateri di Genola.
LEONARDO SUPERSTAR, FOLLOWS TENARIS
Leonardo (+4,2%) made a big splash and, in combination with CNH Industrial, presented a proposal for the Armored Infantry Combat System program to the Ministry of Defence.
Sparks on oil: Tenaris +3,37%, Eni +2,32%, Saipem +1,68%. Profits taken on Diasorin (-3,7%) and Amplifon (-3%).
MONCLER-2%. RUFFINI: RUSSIANS AND AMERICANS RETURN
Moncler -2%. CEO Remo Ruffini said he has no intention of selling shares, reiterating that he is not looking for new purchase targets after the recent Stone Island deal. Ruffini then explained that there are good signs of recovery in Europe, where American and Russian tourists returned in higher numbers than expected in the summer. The performance of the US and Chinese markets was also good.
INVESTINDUSTRIAL TRADES LA DORIA (-12%)
La Doria collapses (-12%). The shareholders gathered in a syndicate agreement which holds a stake equal to 63% of the group are in talks with the private equity firm Investindustrial to sell their shares at 16,5 euros per share. This is what we read in a note from the company that produces preserved legumes, peeled tomatoes and tomato pulp, fruit juices and drinks, controlled by the Ferraioli family. Investindustrial has been given exclusive until October 20 to complete due diligence and negotiations.
WEBSOLUTE (+31%) AND VETRYA (+19%) FLY AT AIM
Websolute flies over Aim (+31%), a new historic record. Integrae has strengthened the Buy judgment on the digital company by raising the target price to 5 euros, from the previous 2,5. In one month the increase exceeded 50%.
Vetrya also takes off (+19,75%) after the agreement with Open Fiber to bring ultra-fast connectivity to individuals and companies.
