THE BTP/BUND SPREAD REMAINS BELOW 500. THE BULL WARMS UP MPS, THE BEAR FREEZES UNICREDIT
The European stock exchanges deflated from their highs after the declarations of Chinese Prime Minister Wen according to which the first quarter of 2012 will be difficult for the Chinese economy. Milan now gains 0,5%, Ftse/Mib at 15.540, Frankfurt rises by 1,11%, also thanks to the leap of Deutz +6% driven by rumors of Chinese interests. The Parisian CAC is down due to the sales pressure on the banks. Tokyo and Shanghai still closed, today begins the stock exchange year of Wall Street. Let's start with some sensitive macro data: manufacturing production and construction spending for the month of November. Meanwhile, the most positive note comes from the front of government bonds. The spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds which falls below 500 basis points (to 497), the ten-year yield is equal to 6,786% (5 years: 5,769% and 2 years: 4,354%).
Oil barrel above the $100 threshold on Asian markets: February WTI delivery climbs nearly $2 a barrel to $100,68 from Friday's $98,83. The same Brent contract recovers a dollar and a half to 108,75. Concerns over the situation in the Middle East pushed gold to $1.587,60 an ounce, up 1,4%.
Everlasting in the spotlight the Ligresti group, while Mediobanca accelerates the pressure to find a solution that secures it as soon as possible Premafin and Fonsai. Today, awaiting the summit between the representatives of Premafin and Unipol, a candidate for a marriage of interest with Fondiaria, the securities concerned are in fibrillation. Fonsai accelerates (+5%) while it was postponed due to excessive downtrend to then return to the volatility auction with a theoretical increase of 33 percent. Unipol gains 1,7 per cent.
Also prominent is the Mount Paschi (+3%), engaged in a race against time. In fact, by January 20, the new general manager Fabrizio Viola (who will take office officially only on the 12th) will have to present a business plan that allows the capital increase imposed by the EBA to be reduced to a minimum. The plan is based on the sale of non-core assets and securitizations which allow for the strengthening of the capital by 1,7-1,8 billion. To avoid a recapitalization operation and bring the Core tier 1 to 9%, Mps is willing to play, writes La Stampa, even the freshes card. In less than a month, at the beginning of February, the assembly will have to approve the conversion of 950 million of fresh convertible bonds. The goal is to avoid the 3,2 billion capital increase indicated by the EBA. The response from the stock was positive, which in the first hours of trading in Piazza Affari is the best of the Ftse-Mib. Unicredit -1,5% warms up the engines in view of the capital increase. Tomorrow the board of directors will be held and will examine the details of the capital increase that rumors give starting on January 9 or, at the latest, on the 16th. Indiscretions on the discount on the Terp of the new securities are multiplying: between 35% and 45% %.
Fiat in decline in the aftermath of weak December registrations data in Italy and France. The stock of the Lingotto group dropped by about 0,3% at 3,7 euros per share. The data, less brilliant than expected, on the sales of commercial vehicles in Brazil also weigh. Equita analysts, who confirm a buy recommendation on Fiat, expect a cut in the trading profit guidance for 2012 (between 4,6-5,4 billion euro according to the business plan) in the wake of the weakness of the Old continent. “But with a range – specifies the broker – higher than the current consensus estimate of around 3,1 billion”.
