While Wall Street celebrates Columbus Day, China is still giving the Bull the charge, supported by the good response to the pandemic and the relaunch of tourism in the recent Golden Week. However, the guard remains high: today tests will be carried out on all 9 million inhabitants of Qingdao after the discovery of two cases last week. The news of Xi Jing Ping's forthcoming visit to Shenzhen, the city where Deng Xiao Ping launched the model of the new China, contributed to boosting the Stock Exchange. Thanks to the rally of the Shanghai stock exchange (+2,4% in the last session and +17% since the beginning of the year, double that of Wall Street), the Asia Pacific indices rose this morning to their highest levels since the beginning of 2018. The Hang Seng index Hong Kong is up 1,7%.
YUAN STILL AT HIGH HIGHS, TOKYO SLOWS DOWN
The Xinhua news agency reports that the trip will be an opportunity to announce the birth in southern China of a "pilot economic zone with socialist and Chinese characteristics", a high-tech pole which should also extend to the entire bay where Hong Kong and Macao are located. Xinhua reports that in Shenzen, a metropolis of 13 million people where the main Chinese high-tech companies such as Tencent and Huawei are based, what could become the next currency of all China, the digital yuan, will be tested.
Thanks to foreign purchases of Chinese bonds, the yuan retreated from its highs of around 6,7 against the dollar (+7% compared to May), due to sales by the central bank. On Saturday, the People's Bank of China lifted some restrictions on foreign exchange operations that made it very expensive to bet on the devaluation of the yuan. The Sydney Stock Exchange is at parity, that of Japan slightly down, that of South Korea up by 0,5%. The India Stock Exchange starts the week with another gain: behind it there are nine consecutive positive sessions.
OIL DOWN, EUROPEAN EXCHANGES RISE
An upward opening is also looming for European lists, today orphaned by the push of US buyers. WTI-type oil is down 1% to $40,2 a barrel. Prices have been down since Friday, due to the restart of mining activities in the Gulf of Mexico, which were halted in recent days due to the arrival of a hurricane. The supply is increasing, also following the arrival of crude oil from Libya. Libya National Oil yesterday announced the return to activity of the Sharara field: within ten days, the field should reach 300.000 barrels per day when fully operational.
THE IMF SUMMIT AT THE START, THE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
Despite the Stock Exchange on vacation, New York today confirms itself as the world capital of the economy thanks to the start of the autumn meetings of the International Monetary Fund, which will close on Saturday with the meeting of the World Bank. Today Christine Lagarde will discuss the challenges of the post-Covid economy with Alfred Kammer of the IMF. Tomorrow the IMF's outlook will be released, presented by a panel that includes, in addition to President Georghieva, Lawrence Fink of Black Rock, Mark Carney, former number one of the Bank of England, and Vera Daves de Sousa, Angolan finance minister.
THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN STARTS AGAIN, IT'S ABOUT STIMULI
Donald Trump's comeback attempt is also taking place today, lagging behind challenger Joe Biden. The president will resume meetings with voters today, against the advice of doctors. The president is in "excellent shape, ready to fight," he said himself, speaking in the third person in a telephone interview with Fox News. The President is scheduled to attend a rally in Florida today.
Trump could propose the new economic aid package, after the 2.200 trillion Democrats' program was initially stopped. The return to negotiations should be certified by a 1.800 billion presidential proposal, to then be examined by the speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.
TOMORROW THE QUARTERLY REPORT OF THE US BANKS
Tomorrow the quarterly campaign kicks off on Wall Street: during the week it's the big banks' turn. JP Morgan, CitiGroup and BlackRock release their quarterly results on Tuesday. Wednesday is the turn of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, Thursday of Morgan Stanley. According to the consensus, average profits should record a decline of around 12%.
HERE COMES THE 5G OF APPLE. EXXON COMES OFF THE THRONE
No less expected on Wednesday is the debut of Apple's latest iPhone, which marks the debut of Apple in 5G.
Since Friday, Exxon is no longer the most capitalized western oil company: Chevron with 142,5 billion precedes it by a whisker (141,3). But to put everything in agreement is NextEra, a company active in solar and wind power with 145 billion.
During the week, the name of the winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics will also be announced.
RECOVERY FUND AND BREXIT, TWO KNOTS FOR THE EU
The consumer price indices will be the main protagonists of the European week, with the new inflation readings for the Eurozone, the USA, Italy, France and the United Kingdom. Also to watch is the Zew German Investor Confidence Index, due out on Tuesday, and Eurozone August Industrial Production (Wednesday).
The heads of state and government will meet on Thursday and Friday for a new European Council after the one at the beginning of October dedicated mainly to Turkey. Barring the outbreak of Covid-19, there will be two more delicate dossiers: the negotiations with the United Kingdom on a free trade agreement to regulate post-Brexit relations and the negotiations on the EU 2021-27 budget package on which the timing of the Recovery Fund.
On Brexit, the positions remain distant. French President Emmanuel Macron, already supported by other European leaders, has announced that he will ask for a tough tightening of the rules for any trade treaty with Great Britain
EMPLOYMENT ALARM: 10 MILLION JOBS LOST IN EUROPE
Meanwhile, social tensions are growing in the EU: there are in Europe, due to Covid, ten million fewer workers among the unemployed, inactive and absent not due to layoffs, sickness or holidays. According to Eurostat calculations, the layoffs rose from 2,4 to 19,3 million between the first and second quarters of this year.
In Italy, attention will mainly be paid to Nadef, which arrives in the Senate on Wednesday.
On the business front, waiting for the positions that the president of Confindustria Bonomi will assume, present on Monday at the Assolombarda assembly and at the weekend at the conference of Young Entrepreneurs.
The Istat data on August industry turnover and orders and on September inflation are arriving.
AS ROMA'S INCREASE IS TODAY IN THE PIAZZA AFFARI
In Piazza Affari, pending the transfer of ownership to Euronext, the calendar foresees the start of the troubled capital increase of As Roma.
The Sabaf dividend will be assigned. The BTP is under scrutiny after Friday's record run: the 0,665-year bond broke all records at 120% in the final session, while the spread was set at XNUMX points.
