Better than expected. The Chinese economy slows down but not too much: GDP +7,9% in the second quarter, slowing down compared to 18,3% in the first three months. But if we compare with 2019, leaving aside the year of the pandemic and the lockdown, the increase is 5,5%, accelerating from +5% in the first three months of the year. The data on consumption for June (+12,1%) also beat the estimates, as did industrial production (+8,3%), affected less than expected by the persistent difficulties in transporting goods. In short, the Dragon seems to have the situation under control. And US Big Business also thinks so: over the last year, despite pressures and bans, investments in Chinese securities have grown by 800 billion dollars, among which 75 billion in bonds stand out. Meanwhile, later Powell's words, Wall Street is resigned to the prospect of a slowdown in growth: the Fed chairman reaffirmed his full support for the market but warned that the time to start the discussion on the withdrawal of monetary stimuli is imminent. Long-term bonds, but above all the yield curve, are anticipating some kind of adjustment or loss of power in the medium term. The 1,33-year Treasury Note rose to 10%. The 110-year-two-year spread, at the level of government bonds, is down to XNUMX basis points.
GOLDMAN SACHS RECOMMENDS YOGA
The remedy? This is suggested by Goldman Sachs which yesterday awarded the new Lululemon yoga pants +1,7% as the "best idea". In short, for Taurus it's time to relax a little after the race:
HONG KONG AND KOREA ADVANCE
Asian stock exchanges are in good shape after the Beijing announcements. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists gains 0,4%, the Hang Seng of Hong Kong 1,3% and the Kospi of Seoul 0,5%. In the rest of the Asia-Pacific area, the stock markets of Malaysia and Indonesia rose, while Singapore fell.
APPLE +2,4% INCREASES PURCHASES FROM SUPPLIERS
- The US markets were less brilliant: Dow and S&P 500 closed with a slight gain (+0,12/0,13%), Nasdaq down 0,22%.
- The indices were supported by the performance of Apple +2,4%: according to Bloomberg, Apple asked suppliers to increase deliveries of 20%.
- The quarterly banking campaign continues quietly: Bank of America loses ground -2,5%: government support has allowed people to take out fewer loans. On the other hand, Wells Fargo was up +4%.
PEACE TO OPEC +, OIL PRICES DOWN
- The most important price changes were seen in the energy sector, down by almost 3%.
- A similar drop was seen in WTI oil this morning, down 0,8% to $72,5.
- The forthcoming green light from OPEC + to the requests for confidential treatment arriving from the United Arab Emirates weighed on the prices: Saudi Arabia has decided to grant a derogation from the limits on production envisaged by the latest draft of the agreement.
THE EU: BANNED SALES OF PETROL CARS FROM 2035
The indications coming from the president of the Fed do not shake the European stock exchanges from the apathy that accompanies the reawakening of fears from Covid-19 (-1% European industrial production in May). Jerome Powell managed to reassure the markets but also to send the signal that the US central bank is ready to intervene if, as is happening, inflation picks up. And so the markets, after an upward trend, returned to the ranks with changes in the telephone area code, also held back by the recovery of the euro, again over 1,18 against the US currency. The fall in bond yields and that of oil on the wave of peace between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates completes a picture of apparent calm in which, however, a new challenge has arisen: eliminating energy consumption from fossil sources by 2030 and prohibit the sale of cars internal combustion engines (gasoline, diesel and gas) by 2035.
MILAN +0,15% AMONG THE BEST. INFLATION BENDS LONDON
- Piazza Affari, with a modest increase of 0,15% to 25.194 points, is among the best in Europe.
- Frankfurt and Paris are practically colorless, Amsterdam +0,28% is appreciated, Madrid -0,43% remains in decline.
- Outside the euro zone, the London session was negative, -0,46%, penalized by a stronger pound after the UK inflation figure in June, +0,5%, +2,5% per annum, above above the Bank of England's target and at its highest since August 2018.
TOURISM SUFFERS AGAIN: TUI -7,2%
- Under the blows of the Delta variant, hope for a rapid recovery of tourist flows vanishes. Tui, the world's largest travel company, dropped 7,2% following the cancellation of many reservations for the month of August. Lufthansa archives a drop of 1,76%, after announcing that passengers are currently 40% of those they were before the start of the Covid era and that the company aims to reach 60-70% by the end of the year .
- On the contrary, again in Frankfurt, Hugo Boss advances +4,6% after having revised the 2021 revenue bar upwards.
- Paris moved little on the day of the National Holiday. Arcelor Mittal +3,45% and Vallourec +3,43% both promoted by Jefferies.
BTP YIELDS AT THE MINIMUM. THE LONG RUN
Bond market picks up on the wave of Jerome Powell's reassurances. Even in Europe dovish tones prevail: even Isabel Schnabel, a German member of the board, said that Frankfurt wants to see a rise in core inflation before tightening its current ultra-accommodative approach.
In closing, the spread between 10-year BTP and Bund rates stood at 102 points, unchanged since the start and end of Tuesday.
The 0,71-year reference rate is 0,73% – on a three-month low – from 0,71% at the opening and XNUMX% at the last closing.
Long stocks are more strongly favored by the markets.
There has been a boom in requests for i BTP at 7 and 15 years in the Treasury auction dedicated to specialists characterized by sustained demand also for the three-year bond. This was announced by the Bank of Italy. In detail, the BTP 15/0/2024, with a nominal zero coupon, offered in the second tranche for an amount of 1,35 billion, received requests from specialists for a countervalue of 2,42 billion. Strong market interest, then, for the Btp 15/7/2028, offered in the sixth tranche, for 550 million. Requests totaled over 2,19 billion from specialists.
Demand significantly higher than the Treasury's offer also for the 15-year BTP (maturity 1/3/2037). The Ministry of the Economy offered the security (second tranche) for a value of 350 million but the requests received exceeded 1,57 billion. The settlement date for the three issues is July 15.
STM SUPERSTAR TAILORED BY APPLE
Yesterday in Piazza Affari (in Paris) the star of St Microelectronics +2,48%. The rumors arriving from the US on Apple's request to suppliers to increase the production of components for the next iPhone 13 which Apple intends to launch in 90 million pieces have pushed up the prices of the semiconductor manufacturer. La Mela is one of the main customers of the Italian-French group. Equita Sim confirmed hold recommendation and target price of 36 euro on the stock.
OILS IN EVIDENCE. MONCLER SHINES
Important purchases then on oil stocks, after OPEC+ has reached a compromise with the United Arab Emirates which allows for an increase in their production: Saipem increases by 1,75%, Tenaris +1,71% (Jefferies raised its target at 9,50 euros) Eni + 0,38%.
In the luxury sector, Moncler's hot season continues, +1,18%, while Cucinelli closes with a slight decrease -0,29%, despite the jump in revenues in the first half and the increase in the sales forecast for 2021 for the second time this year.
POSTE ALLIES WITH INTESA IN EURIZON CAPITAL
Fractional decrease for Poste -0,36% which signed a agreement with Intesa Sanpaolo +0,64% to acquire 40% of Eurizon Capital Real Asset Sgr (Ecra), specialized in investments to support the real economy.
Among the banks, the big ones do well: Unicredit +0,80%. On the other hand, the former Popolari suffer: Bper -0,44%, worse Banca Bpm -1,54%.
