THE WSJ: BTP AUCTION, A DECISIVE TEST FOR EUROPE.
Italy and Spain face bond scrutiny. This is the opening story of The Wall Journal online dedicated to the auction of government bonds for 8,5 billion in Italy and 3,5 billion for Spain. In reality, Murdoch's own newspaper debunks the climate of alleged alarm: the latest Treasury auctions went satisfactorily, 57 percent of government bond issues remain in the hands of Italian families and institutions. “The Italian economy does not give rise to particular concerns – reads a note from Rbc Capital markets referred to in the article – unless market rates explode”. But the context, i.e. the stability of the peripheral countries of the euro area, remains at high risk. Yesterday's “Sunday Times” reported the concerns of Irish transport minister Leo Varadkar: it is very unlikely that Ireland will be able to resume, as envisaged in the programme, offering bonds on the market as early as 2012, as scheduled. Negative start to the week for the Nikkei (-0.19%) while both Hong Kong and Shanghai close in positive territory (+0,49% and 0,51%). Today the US and UK stock exchanges are closed for the Bank Holiday.
LOANS FOR GREECE: CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SEVERE AND BINI SMAGHI, IN THE SMELL OF UNEMPLOYMENT, IS GETTING TO DO
Gunboat diplomacy was inaugurated in 1850 by a Royal Navy mission to Piraeus. The cannons of her Majesty, on that occasion, explained with the strong manners to the Greeks that debts are paid. The current orientation of the "troika" (ministers of the euro area, the ECB and the IMF), which is grappling with the Greece dossier, is not very different. Unprecedented and severe conditions will be imposed to disburse new loans in the order of 30-35 billion, necessary to avoid the collapse of the Greek economy. An international task force, in particular, will monitor the progress of privatizations and the results of the tax reform. A sort of limitation of national sovereignty that complicates an already very tense political situation after last Friday the opposition refused to share the plan of the Papandreou government. Meanwhile, time is running out: by 12 June it is necessary to give the IMF a credible answer on the recovery plans for the Greek economy, to prevent the fund from withdrawing its already promised support. To complicate things, then, there is the strong dissent between the heads of state and the ECB. The latter strongly disagrees with those who preach the need to proceed with debt restructuring. An attitude that originates from the fact that the ECB, much more than the member states, has borne the brunt of the financing to Greece. In the event of a reduction in the value of Hellenic bonds, the balance sheet of the ECB itself would be seriously compromised. And a recapitalization of the bank by governments would be necessary, to the detriment of its independence. And so the ECB reacts with a big blow: if the governments choose this path, they should know that the bank will no longer be able to accept Greek bonds as collateral to guarantee its withdrawals from the Frankfurt bank. By then, however, Athens would be virtually outside the euro area. The Italian member of the institute's directorate, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, takes care of giving voice to the position of the ECB, in the columns of the Financial Times, who, when asked by the interviewer regarding his imminent exit from the Frankfurt summit, limits himself to a dry "I'm not talking about this". But Bini Smaghi, with the activism of these days, is keen to let it be known that for the after Draghi in via Nazionale, there is also his candidacy. Moreover, he quite corresponds to the identikit of the central banker traced by Guido Rossi in the Sole 24 Ore: "a person who is esteemed internationally and who therefore can communicate on an equal footing with his foreign colleagues and who also knows the credit system and the financial markets, as well as the economic problems of businesses and citizens".
UNICREDIT: CASH CHANGE, LIGRESTI HEADS HEAD
It seems inevitable that the modification of the characteristics of the cashes, which Unicredit is about to launch today on the basis of the suggestions of the Bank of Italy, must necessarily pass through the special meeting of bondholders. But it won't be a crowded assembly: among the shareholders who at the beginning of 2009 ran to the bank's rescue by subscribing cashes for 3 billion, in addition to the Foundations (excluding Verona) also the Central Bank of Libya whose shares are frozen for the notes sanctions against Gaddafi and Salvatore Ligresti's Fonsai, in the meantime saved by Unicredit with a massive intervention "to protect credit". In short, to make the best of a bad situation, ie a drastic reduction in the yield of cashes, there will in practice be only the Foundations. On the contrary, the Libyans will be missing due to force majeure. The representatives of Fonsai, on the other hand, will flaunt indifference: what Unicredit saves by linking the cash yield to the dividend instead of the current formula (Euribor rate plus 450 bp), it will somehow have to give to companies hungry for "cash" rather than cashes. On the other hand, the relationship between the bank and the Sicilian builder's group goes back a long way. Just think back to those dramatic days, between Saturday 4 and Sunday 5 October 2008, when the Unicredit board met twice to launch "a series of interventions that will significantly strengthen the capital base". Among these measures, the most important was precisely the recourse for 3 billion to the cashes that Fonsai, in truth, subscribed to in modest quantities. But a few days later, on 15 October, Premafin Finanziaria stipulated an equity swap contract on 2,8% of Fonsai with Unicredit which has since been extended several times. The favor that Fausto Marchionni did to Unicredit, in short, had an immediate counterpart. This time, however, the meeting of bondholders on the cashes will cross paths with the capital increase of Fonsai, in which Unicredit will take a 6,6 percent stake, an obligatory move to save the debtor and, consequently, protect its credit . An operation that does not convince all shareholders: Unicredit, in the interest of its shareholders, should have asked the debtor to return and, in the event of default, even go to default and, if necessary, to the subsequent transfer to an interested buyer (Groupama, for example). On the contrary, a sort of "soft" support was preferred, which envisages the direct intervention of Piergiorgio Peluso, a bank manager "lent" to the Ligresti group, to try to straighten the group's accounts. Hoping that the man from the banks is not swallowed up by the builder's galaxy.
PRADA, THE GOAL IS ELEVEN BILLION
First the Venice preview, where Patrizio Bertelli and Miuccia Prada will present their stupendous contemporary art collection to the public next Friday, then another more demanding preview: the Hong Kong Stock Exchange IPO on Monday 6 June. Prada lands in a crowded market which, for this year, intends to welcome 54 freshmen despite the fact that the financial situation shows signs of slowing down, both in the former colony and in the Chinese motherland. But the expectation for the Italian brand is such that Mizuho Financials, one of the advisors of the operation, claims that Prada can be placed at a value of around 11 billion euros. Samsonite's goal is more modest which, from the IPO scheduled for June 16 in Hong Kong, promises to raise 1,5 billion dollars.
ON THE STOCK TODAY. CRUCIAL HOURS FOR METROWEB
Easy to predict that the directors will be distracted. The A2A board of directors, dedicated to the negotiations for the sale of a stake in Metroweb (23,5%), will be held simultaneously with the counting after the hard-fought electoral campaign in Milan. It is unlikely that a definitive choice can be reached in such a delicate moment for the city. But the fact is that four expressions of interest have been received, to be exact from: Intesa/F2i, which would have exclusive rights to the deal; Axa Private (behind which the shadow of Mps and Caltagirone can be glimpsed); Antin Infrastructure and the consortium between Wind and Vodafone.
