The recovery in the Eurozone continues "at a sustained pace" with a "significant improvement in growth prospects". However, "a large degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary", in the face of inflation that remains moderate and has yet to show "convincing signs of a continued upward trend". This is the summary of the message that comes from the ECB's monthly bulletin.
In the euro area, it says, "the expansion of activity continues to be solid and generalized in the various countries and sectors". This is what the ECB indicates in the economic bulletin. “The growth of GDP in real terms is supported by the growth of private consumption and investments, as well as by exports, which benefit from the generalized recovery at a global level”, confirming a robust expansionary dynamic. Even the international economy continues to expand at a sustained pace, and the recovery is showing signs of synchronization at a global level”.
The bulletin therefore confirms the macroeconomic projections for the euro area formulated in December by Eurosystem experts, who 'expect annual growth in GDP in real terms of 2,4% in 2017, 2,3% in 2018, 1,9% in 2019 and 1,7% in 2020'. Lastly, as regards inflation, the December macroeconomic projections formulated for the euro area by Eurosystem experts are reaffirmed, 'which indicate an annual rate of inflation measured on the IAPC of 1,5% in 2017, 1,4% in 2018, 1,5% in 2019 and 1,7% in 2020”.
Overall, the economic bulletin states, "the most recent data signal a continuing expansionary trend in the fourth quarter of 2017 and for the beginning of the year, with growth that should continue to remain solid in 2018".
The employment scenario is positive. According to official data, "employment is currently at a level of 1,2% higher than the pre-crisis peak recorded in the first quarter of 2008". Furthermore, the bulletin continues, "long-term unemployment also continued to decline, although remaining well above the pre-crisis level". In conclusion, as far as employment is concerned, according to the ECB, “the information obtained from the surveys signal persistent improvements in the conditions of the labor market in the coming period. At the same time, there are growing signs of labor shortages in some countries and sectors.”
