Dear Knight, I'm sorry, but it can't be done. Almost simultaneously with the release of his biography, the ECB freezes Leonardo Del Vecchio's projects in Mediobanca: Delfin, the stronghold of the empire of mister eyewear, at present will not be able to rise from the current 19,9% to 25% of the institution in Piazzetta Cuccia. To get the go-ahead, reports Mf to whom we owe the scoop, Del Vecchio would have to transform Delfin into the parent bank. But such a transformation would have repercussions for the rest of the empire: a bank holding company cannot permanently control the number one in the world of eyewear, which is also deeply involved in the digital revolution in the sector.
The ECB stops Del Vecchio: what can happen now
It can therefore be foreseen that Del Vecchio, despite being one who does not give up easily, will give up on the initial plan, i.e. aim for growth in the share capital of Mediobanca and Generali with the aim of "defending their Italian spirit and helping them to grow and become leader". While waiting to identify another strategy that won't be able to rely too much on Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone. The veto raised against Delfin, in fact, is even more true against the Roman property developer, now plunged into trench warfare in Generali, outside the control room of the company of which he was vice president for a long time after having invested three billion euros on the flip.
At this point, it is unlikely that Caltagirone, with an abundant 5% stake in Mediobanca, wants or can increase the pressure on Alberto Nagel and thus obtain a change of the guard. Nagel, since yesterday, is undoubtedly stronger, supported by most of the historical partners of Piazzetta Cuccia. Without forgetting the risk of incurring the risk of concertation and the related obligation to launch a takeover bid. In short, the fort in Piazzetta Cuccia now seems impregnable.
The ECB stops Del Vecchio: Benetton pontiere?
Piazza Affari has already taken note of the new situation: the Mediobanca share, having extinguished the speculative appeal, falls by 2,5%, the worst share on the list. Also Generali -1%, the other battlefield, which still bears the signs of the clash that divided the majority, supported by all institutional investors, against the Del Vecchio-Caltagirone couple, loses blows. But the ECB's decision actually makes it more complicated to aim for a war with stamped papers to oust Philippe Donnet, supported by Mediobanca from the position of number one of the company, who will announce the quarterly accounts tomorrow.
In short, the war seems to be drawing to a close. But now we need to build peace and thus avoid a stalemate that threatens to slow down the development of one of the few Italian financial centers with an international reach. The role of bridge between the duelists could be played by the Benettons who in the General meeting voted alongside Caltagirone (on the basis of the questionable principle that the choices of the "owners" should be rewarded over those of the boards) but had already anticipated that they wanted act as mediators between the warring parties. Perhaps to design a future for Leone less tied to Mediobanca which could aim for the role of king maker of asset management by acquiring Banca Generali and Mediolanum from the friend Doris family.
READ MORE Will Mediobanca go to showdown after Generali? Trieste's lesson: you don't mess with the market
And now the banking risk is starting again for Unicredit
It is not the only possible scenario, to tell the truth. Also because, as already mentioned, Del Vecchio is not a man who gives up. The patron of eyewear has always had an eye for Unicredit, the bank which, thanks to Lucio Rondelli, understood that the former Martinitt had something extra, so much so that it accompanied him, the first Italian, to the Wall Street list. Del Vecchio, a large shareholder of the bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti, played a decisive role in the choice of Andrea Orcel, the "Cristiano Ronaldo of bankers" who for now is having difficulty identifying the main road to make the institute grow. The latest attempt, a possible merger with Commerzbank, failed due to the outbreak of war in Ukraine, also fatal for the almost mature takeover bid on Banco Bpm. Not to mention the failed negotiations with the Treasury for Monte dei Paschi.
Del Vecchio, blocked by Frankfurt's veto, is aware that Orcel has the necessary banking license. And he could play the Unicredit card for a merger with Piazzetta Cuccia capable of fielding a player of international dimensions. In short, risk is far from over. Also because stalemate harms everyone.
