On the eve of the Jackson Hole meetings, the first move on rates comes from South Korea. The central bank decided tonight to raise the cost of money by a quarter of a point to 0,75%. The reasons? The increase in household debt and the boom in the real estate market have convinced bankers to send a slight invitation to prudence, such as not to jeopardize the growth of GDP (+4%) and investments, from self-driving cars to new chips in which Samsung will bet 260 billion dollars in the next few years.
THE CLOSE DOESN'T STOP THE KOSPI
The Korean index, the Kospi, reacted with a modest decrease, 0,7%, to the ministrative, thus confirming that the Stock Exchanges are willing to slow down after a hot summer. Indeed, if the Fed does not act by September, the suspicion will take shape that, thanks to the Delta variant, central banks are much less optimistic than it appears.
AUSTERITY IN BEIJING. THE ALCOHOL DOES NOT INCREASE
- China's stock markets drop after a three-day rise, while Hong Kong's (-1,3%) is penalized by the disappointing quarterly data published by two high-tech companies: Kuaishou Technology and AAC Technologies, losing more than 10%. The former provides streaming services and the latter produces electronic components.
- In the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists, down by 1,2%, the producers of spirits and spirits are down: the sector press reported that one of the big names in the sector, Moutai, will not raise the prices of his drinks in view of the autumn holidays which see peaks in consumption. The effects of the calls for moderation from the supervisory authorities are being felt.
- With the Msci Global index close to its peak, Asian stocks are down 12% on their February prices.
- Tokyo's Nikkei is on par and Mumbai's BSE Sensex slightly up.
STILL RECORD ON US MARKETS, BUSINESS ON CHIPS
- Wall Street futures are slightly lower after the new highs of the S&P 500 (+0,22%) and the Nasdaq (+0,15%). Leading the movement were transport, tourism, movement and entertainment companies. The Dow Jones also rises +0,11%.
- Western Digital +7,8% is in talks to buy the Japanese chip maker Kioxia, a deal worth 20 billion dollars.
- The yield of the 1,33-year Treasury Note, following the sales boom that arrived in a few hours in the afternoon, recorded one of the most important changes in recent weeks, during the night there was an adjustment and some purchases. This morning it is trading at XNUMX%.
- Euro/dollar at 1,176, slightly down after 4 sessions of appreciation.
- WTI oil retreating to 67,8 dollars a barrel, -0,7%.
THE ECB: ECONOMY OK, BUT QE IS NOT TOUCHED
“Regardless of when the end of the PEPP comes, this will not be the end of the ECB's intervention in terms of quantitative easing”. The chief economist of the ECB, the Irishman Philip Lane, who has always been a faithful Draghi boy, gave the ECB's position in an interview with Reuters before today's speech by Jerome Powell. In short, the Frankfurt route does not change. The Delta variant, Lane explains, is likely to have only a limited impact on the eurozone economy, which remains on course for robust growth this year and next. Central bank vice president Luis De Guindos echoed this from Madrid. Indeed, the former Spanish finance minister anticipated, the ECB could and could revise upwards the macroeconomic forecasts for the euro area again in September, after the recent data of solid activity in the third quarter. Confidence injections collected only in part by the markets awaiting the Fed's word: will Powell anticipate the autumn strategy or will he just kick the can, waiting for the mid-September data?
FLAT BUSINESS PLACE, THE IFO PUSHES FRANKFURT DOWN
- Piazza Affari, almost flat, however remained above 26 points: +0,12% to 26.060 pints.
- Above parity Paris +0,15% and London 0,22%.
- The latest data on the German Ifo cooled Frankfurt, the only one to close in the red (-0,31%).
- According to the survey by the Ifo institute, the figure fell to 99,4 points from 100,7. The IFO index for August, based on the expectations of the 9000 German companies taking part in the survey, fell to 97,5 from 101 in July, the consensus was at 100. The president of the research institute, Clemens Fuest points out that to condition the expectations of manufacturing companies are fears about supplies of intermediate products, as well as concerns about the progress of the pandemic.
- German investors were also depressed by an opinion poll published on Tuesday on the upcoming federal elections in Germany, which showed that, a month after the vote, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) had surpassed Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives for the first time in 15 years.
ITHE DAX EXPANDS, A BITCOIN DERIVATIVE IS LAUNCHED
- On September 3, the Dax index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange will rise from 30 to 40 listed companies, in the most important restructuring in its history. Instead, the Eurex derivatives exchange will launch Bitcoin Etf furure, the first crypto derivative that allows Europe to take positions and hedge on Bitcoin through exchange traded notes.
- The stocks of the travel sector are in evidence everywhere (+1,4% at European level).
UNIVERSAL TOWARDS THE STOCK EXCHANGE PROMISES EBITDA +25%
- Vivendi is moving +0,48%. Universal Music, of which the Bolloré-based company will retain 10%, yesterday anticipated its objectives in anticipation of the listing in Amsterdam on 21 September next. An ebitda growth of 25% is expected. In 2020, the expensive record company had 192 artists under contract, with a turnover of 7,43 billion euros.
- Consumer apparel sector on the move after Deutsche Bank report; Inditex (Zara) and H&M are down, both -1% after a rating sell. Adidas and Puma are up 1,5% after the buyout.
BTP YIELD JUMP, SPREAD TO 108
Sparks on fixed income after the optimistic indications coming from the ECB. The yield on the ten-year BTP jumped by about 10 basis points in just over half a day, with a yield close to 0,67%, a level not seen for a month.
The spread with the Bund widened to 107,6 from around 104 at Tuesday's close.
Today the auction of short Btp and Btpei is scheduled. Up to 2,75 billion of the third tranche of the Btp Short January 2024 and up to 1 billion Btpei over 5 years will be offered. In the auction at the end of July, the Short had been placed for 3,75 billion at -0,29%, with a bid-to-cover of 1,37.
THE RECOVERY OF FLIGHTS PUSHES AUTOGRILL +4,59%
In great evidence Autogrill, +4,59% on the wave of the recovery of travel, especially of air traffic as anticipated by the managing director of RyanAir and on the day of take-off of the new ITA. Lufthansa plans to reopen routes to the United States from late summer and to Asia from 2022. Equita sees domestic traffic recovering well, with passengers at 80% of pre-pandemic levels. The analysts therefore confirmed the buy rating and the target price of 7,4 euros.
BANKS GOOD, CALTAGIRONE AT 4,9% IN MEDIOBANCA
For the rest, a price list divided in half: the banking sector is doing well, utilities are still declining.
Among credit titles, Banco Bpm +3,49% stands out, followed by Unicredit +3,14% and Bper +2,09%. Intesa Sanpaolo +0,42%.
Focus on Mediobanca +0,79%: according to what emerges from Consob communications, Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone holds a position of 4,953%. The new position incorporates a 3,003% with voting rights that the builder had communicated last July to which is added an option equal to 1,950%.
REGULATED UTILITIES IN RED, TERNA -3,85%
The heaviest losses concern regulated utilities: Terna -3,85%; Snam -3,36%; Italgas -2,32% after downgrades by RBC which cites weak forecasts on future returns.
Oil stocks remain positive on average, with crude oil currently showing little movement. Saipem +1,39%, despite the cut of the target price to 2,5 from 2,7 euros by Barclays.
MONEY IS NEEDED, JUVENTUS ACCELERATES ON THE INCREASE
Juventus' setback - 0,78% after the news that the Juventus board of directors approved the proposed paid capital increase of up to 400 million euro should be noted. The shareholders' meeting for approval is scheduled for October 29, but the majority shareholder Exor -0,14%, which holds a 63,8% stake is ready to put 255 million euros on the plate but also to make a payment towards a future capital increase of 75 million, "in order to strengthen the equity and financial structure of the company pending the execution of the capital increase". An eloquent sign of the state of the club's coffers.
CHINESE PATENT FOR PHARMANUTRIA
In the spotlight Pharmanutria +4,89% which obtained the patent for the formulations based on cetylated fatty acids (CFA) in China.
On Aim money on Ala +0,51% to 9,95 euro: Intesa Sanpaolo and Equita have started hedging the stock of the logistics operator for Aerospace & Defense with a buy rating and a target price of 14,5 and 12 respectively EUR.
