Good news from Istat. After the (positive) data on youth unemployment, which fell to its lowest since December 2011, even the GDP estimates of the first quarter of 2018 seem to suggest a further improvement in the Italian economy. The results released in the morning also seem to please investors in Piazza Affari, which is currently up by almost 1%, well above the 24 mark.
In detail, in the first three months of the current year, the Italian gross domestic product, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, increased by 0,3% compared to the previous quarter and by 1,4% in trend terms ( from the previous +1,6%). The data, underlines the National Institute of Statistics, marks "a result similar to that of the immediately preceding quarter" and confirms "the slowdown compared to the more marked dynamics recorded in the first part of 2017". Beats, even if only slightly, the forecasts of the analysts, who feared a growth rate of less than 0,3% for this first quarter of the year. We also recall that, for the first three months of 2018, Bank of Italy had estimated an increase in GDP of 0,2%.
In parallel, Eurostat released the estimates relating to GDP of the Eurozone, which rose by 0,4% in the same period, slightly down on the previous quarter (revised to 0,7% from 0,6%).
The growth recorded in the first quarter therefore certifies the continuation of the expansion phase of the Italian economy, which has now lasted for 15 quarters. “The level of GDP – explains Istat – is still 0,9% lower than the previous peak in the second quarter of 2011 but 4,4% higher than at the beginning of the recovery phase”.
To push the Italian GDP the increase in the added value of the agriculture, forestry and fishing and services sectors contributed in a particular way, while the added value of the industry showed an almost zero change. On the demand side, a positive contribution came from the national component (gross of inventories) while a negative contribution came from the net foreign component. The variation acquired for 2018 is equal to +0,8%.
On the labor front, Istat communicates that in March the unemployment rate overall remained stable at 11,0%, on the lowest levels since September 2012, but still 5% higher than pre-crisis values.
The real surprise comes from youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) fell to 31,7% (-0,9% compared to February), reaching the lowest level since December 2011.
Returning to the general data, the estimate of people looking for employment recorded a 0,7% increase on a monthly basis (+19 thousand).
- inactive between 15 and 64 years of age, ie those who do not have a job and are not looking for one, instead decreased by 0,8% (-104 thousand). The inactivity rate drops to 34,3% (-0,3 percentage points compared to February).
Il absolute number of unemployed, on the other hand, fell by 4,0%, down by 118 thousand units, to 2 million and 865 thousand. The number of employed, on the other hand, grew by 0,3% compared to February (+62 thousand units), with the employment rate rose to 58,3% (+0,2% over the month).
Employment growth affects all age groups with the exception of 35-49 year olds, underlines the Institute of Statistics, with a greater increase for young people aged 25-34 (+0,9 percentage points). The growth is entirely due to the male component while for women, after the increase in the previous months, there is a decrease.
Istat estimates “one recovery of the independents, which partially recover the decrease observed in the first two months of the year and, to a lesser extent, of fixed-term employees, while substantially remaining stable permanents".
As for the data of first quarter 2018, employed people grew by 0,1% compared to the previous quarter (+21 thousand). The increase affects men and all age groups with the exception of 35-49 year olds. Fixed-term employees increased (+66 thousand), while permanent employees decreased slightly (-8 thousand) and self-employed to a more consistent extent (-37 thousand). The growth in employed persons in the quarter is accompanied by a slight increase in the unemployed (+0,1%) and a decrease in the inactive (-0,3, -34 thousand).
On an annual basis, the increase in employed persons continues (+0,8%, +190 thousand). The growth affects men and women and concerns only fixed-term workers (+323 thousand), while the permanent ones (-51 thousand) and the self-employed (-81 thousand) decrease. Above all, the over-391s employed increased (+15 thousand) and, to a lesser extent, the 34-46 year olds (+35 thousand) while the 49-246 year olds decreased (-4,0 thousand). Over the course of a year, both the unemployed (-118%, -1,1 thousand) and the inactive (-150%, -XNUMX thousand) decreased.
