In the second quarter Italian GDP grew by 0,2% compared to the January-March period and by 0,5% on an annual basis. This was announced this morning by Istat in its latest preliminary estimates, specifying that the variation acquired for 2015 is equal to 0,4%. The result for the April-June period is in line with most analysts' expectations. This is the second consecutive increase, after +0,3% in the first quarter, and determines Italy's exit from the technical recession.
From the point of view of the Government, the +0,2% in the economic situation was the minimum figure to confirm a year-end growth prospect of 0,7%, which would make it possible to continue the tax cut with the next Stability law with a mix partly articulated in cuts but also with a partial growth of the deficit. The Executive's plan envisages relief for 25 billion euros in 2016, but so far the covers found amount to 15 billion. The 2016 GDP estimate could rise from +1,4 to +1,6%, but for this to happen it was essential to obtain at least +0,2% in the second quarter.
The GDP result in the second quarter is “as expected” affirms the spokesman for Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan. The MEF underlines that the "government's financial planning is based on reliable estimates". “After 13 consecutive quarters of downward trend, we have 2 quarters of growth” underlines the minister's staff again, commenting on the GDP figure released this morning by Istat. "The country - says the MEF - can and must do better: structural reforms and economic policy will favor acceleration". The president of Confindustria Giorgio Squinzi was decidedly critical: «It's what we expected. Unfortunately it is the confirmation that there is no real restart", interviewed by the online newspaper Affaritaliani.It.
“The cyclical variation – writes the Institute of Statistics – is the synthesis of a decrease in added value in the agricultural sector, an increase in services, and a zero variation in industry as a whole (industry in the strict sense and buildings). On the demand side, there is a positive contribution from the national component (gross of inventories) and a negative contribution from the net foreign component”.
Again in the second quarter - Istat recalls - the GDP increased in cyclical terms by 0,6% in the United States and 0,7% in the UK. In trend terms, there was an increase of 2,3% and 2,6% respectively. However, disappointing data for France and Germany.
