In 2014, the Italian gross domestic product will grow by 0,6%, in real terms. This was established by Istat, within the Outlook for the Italian economy in 2014-2016 released today. In the document, the statistical institute forecasts an increase in GDP of 1% in 2015 and 1,4% in 2016, lower estimates than those released by the Government according to which GDP will grow respectively by 0,8%, 1,3 .1,6% and XNUMX%.
Again according to Istat, the unemployment rate is destined to grow in 2014, to a record 12,7% from 12,2% in 2013. According to forecasts by the statistical institute, unemployment will drop both in 2015 (to 12,4%) than in 2016 (at 12%).
Purchasing power improves again for the first time since 2007. On the other hand, Italian household consumption is recovering. After falling by 2,6% in 2013, household spending will rise by 0,2% this year, to grow by 0,5% in 2015 and 1% in 2016.
Consumption is driven by "an increase in nominal disposable income, partly fueled by tax measures in favor of employee compensation". The purchasing power of households will improve again for the first time since 2007. The 80 euro extra in paychecks for some income brackets decided by the Government also contribute to the moderate recovery in consumption. According to Istat, their effect, albeit minimal, will be positive.
Furthermore, investments are showing a strong recovery, which, again according to Istat, are destined to grow by 1,9% in 2014. A recovery destined to consolidate in 2015 (+3,5%) and in 2016 (+3,8 .XNUMX%).
Finally, according to the statistical institute, inflation will experience a moderate recovery in the coming months, even if it remains below 1%: "On average this year, inflation would be less than a percentage point, with an increase of resident household expenditure deflator equal to 0,7% (down by 6 tenths of a percentage point compared to 2013)”. Inflation should reach 2015% in 1,3 and 2016% in 1,6.
