"I confirm that the government pays close attention to the activity of such important institutes, looking both at the Italian identity and at the capacity of these institutes to have a profitable international business", Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said yesterday regarding a integration between Intesa (-0,9%) and Generali (+1,7% after a maximum of +5%), "two things that are absolutely not in contrast".
A few hours later, a note from Intesa denied that today the bank's board of directors could launch a takeover bid on the company, already anticipated (17 euros) by the Sole 24 Ore. Just a postponement? A step back? Or the antechamber of another project destined to involve other subjects, see the German Munich Re which talks about major acquisitions in the pipeline? And what response is Mediobanca preparing (+1,5%)? Yellow, however it goes, today will live today a sequel, perhaps decisive, in the board of directors of the bank led by Carlo Messina.
Furthermore, it is difficult to imagine a more "dark" scenario for the financial crisis of our country, richer in open dossiers (MPS and Veneto banks, but not only) than in solutions. To complete the picture, a high-risk political and public finance situation, ideal for an ambush on our securities. The turning point, hopefully, could come as early as Monday with the start of the mega-increase of Unicredit, the operation best prepared by an often confused system.
First Australia, then Mexico and Iran again. Donald Trump's anti-globalisation crusade does not stop. But also the umpteenth surprise move: last night the US president warned Israel against increasing settlements in the occupied territories: Meteo Borsa is struggling to follow the moves of the new president.
CHINESE STOCK MARKETS REOPEN (DOWN), DOLLAR AT LOWEST SINCE NOVEMBER
The dollar continues to fall, this morning at its lowest in Asia for months and a half: the yen gained 112,2% during the week at 2,2%. The euro-dollar cross moved to its highs since November 15th at 1,081, from 1,077 yesterday. Eastern markets are cautious awaiting the data on the US labor market which will be released in the afternoon: 180.000 new jobs are expected to be created, the unemployment rate should remain around 4,7%.
After the long Lunar New Year holiday, the Chinese price lists have reopened their doors. The novelty was the surprise increase in short-term rates for the first time since July 2011: Shanghai (-0,4%) and Shenzhen (-0,3%) fell. Down also Hong Kong (-0,7%) and Australia (-0,2%).
Wall Street without a compass tries to orient itself among the president's moves. The Dow Jones (-0,03%), Nasdaq -0,11% remained almost unchanged. The S&P 500 index advanced 0,06%.
SNAPCHAT IPO COMING (25 BILLION)
It falls after the Amazon Stock Exchange (-3,74%). The accounts point to a higher-than-expected earnings increase ($1,54 per share versus $1,35 expected) but the e-commerce giant's revenue was lower than estimates ($43,7 billion for the quarter versus $44,68). .
After reaching an all-time high of 133,5 dollars, Facebook reversed course and closed at -2,39%. The data for the quarter presented last night are above estimates, but the company has lost a lawsuit with one of the promoters of Oculus and will have to shell out 500 million euros.
One of the most anticipated IPOs is approaching, that of Snap, the parent company of Snapchat, the social network founded by Evan Siegel (26) which in 2016 managed to overtake Twitter in terms of daily active users. Snapchat allows you to send photos and videos that are automatically deleted after viewing. The placement is expected at 3 billion, the initial capitalization of at least 25 billion. The offering is led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
THUD BY RALPH LAUREN, MACY'S IS FOR SALE
Macy's, champion of the traditional trade, is up 5%. The New York Times reports that the retail company has put itself up for sale.
Straps Ralph Lauren (-12,32%) on the news of the dismissal of the president and CEO Stefan Larsson. The company announced a dramatic restructuring of its assets, with extraordinary costs of approximately $400 million. Larsson has been estranged from his owner, Ralph Lauren.
Oil rose this morning: Brent at 56,88 dollars a barrel, Wti at 53,82. In Piazza Affari little move Eni (-0,21%). Equita's analysts raised the target price to 16,50 euros from the previous 15,50 euros with a Buy rating. New crash for Saipem (-2,75%). Tenaris +0,56%: Equita Sim raised the target price of the share to 15 euro from 12 euro, confirming the hold recommendation.
MILAN RISES BUT THE POLITICAL RISK WEIGHTS ON THE DEBT
In Europe we start again this morning with indicators on political risk in a state of alert. The differential between the Bund and the French XNUMX-year bond has risen in recent days to the highs of the last two years. And also the one between the Spanish Bono and the BTP is at worrying levels, it is roughly the values at which it found itself in the most critical moment of the debt crisis.
Positive closure for the Milan Stock Exchange. The Ftse Mib index closed the day up 0,8% to 18.889 points. The other European Stock Exchanges were positive: Paris +0,2%, Madrid +0,9%. The British central bank left rates unchanged but expects Britain to grow faster than initially expected in the coming years.
Only Frankfurt slows down (-0,1%) conditioned by the thud of Deutsche Bank (-5,21%). The institute closed 2016 with a loss of 1,4 billion euros against the loss of 6,8 billion in 2015.
The measures to fight tax evasion that are part of the package of interventions promised in Brussels to correct the structural deficit of 2017 could arrive even before the Def in April. Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said so in the Senate.
The Btp/Bund yield spread on the ten-year segment closed at 181 basis points after briefly deflating to the 178 area, a level to be compared with the 185 basis points of yesterday's closing and with the 190 on Monday (record since November).
The yield of the ten-year BTP fell to 2,21% from 2,29% yesterday.
THE RED AND THE TRUCKS PUSH THE MARKET
There was no shortage of positive notes in the Italian list. The leap in Cnh Industrial's trucks and agricultural machinery (+5,4%, Banca Imi raised the target price from 7,1 to 9 euros, hold recommendation) was echoed by Ferrari (+3,7% on the day of the accounts the pole position in Piazza Affari). But the attention of the markets was all for the Reds who did not disappoint the expectations of analysts: revenues at 836 million (+12% on the same period of 2015), above the consensus of 812,9 million euros. Ebitda rose to 251 million euros (+38%), against a forecast of 224,1 million. Net earnings per share more than doubled to 59 cents. A dividend of 0,635 euros will go to the shareholders, the forecast was for a coupon of 0,55 euros. As at 31 December, net industrial debt had risen to 653 million, from 585 million at the end of September. Sergio Marchionne anticipated that Ferrari will enter the hybrid car sector (at an increased rate) but reiterated that there will be no Prancing Horse SUV. It is possible, he added the CEO, buying a share of Formula One.
Fiat Chrysler posted a modest +0,2%. Exor +1,7%.
STM IN RALLY, POSTE ITALIANE SICKS UP
The Stmicroelectronics rally continued (+5%) triggered by the sales data of Apple's iPhone7 which mounts a component made by the Italian-French semiconductor group.
Sudden and unexpected tear in the afternoon for Poste Italiane (+3,68% to 6,06 euros). In recent days there has been talk of Poste in relation to the forthcoming sale of the residual 30% stake held by the Treasury. Three days ago Fabrizio Pagani, a top Treasury executive, said that the 30% stake will be put on the market, if conditions permit, already around June. Poste Italiane arrived on the stock exchange at 6,75 euros in 2015. 35,5% of the company is in the hands of the Cassa Depositi e Prestiti. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has fallen by 4% and during 2016 it has lost 11%.
UNICREDIT, CARIVERONA WILL PARTICIPATE IN THE INCREASE
Everything is ready for Unicredit's 13 billion capital increase starting on Monday and ending by 10 March. The stock closed yesterday down 1,6% after a day marked by fluctuations. As is well known, the operation envisages a price of 8,09 euros for each share, equal to a 38% discount on the Terp (Terp = theoretical ex-rights price based on yesterday's official price).
The success of the increase is guaranteed by a pool of 30 banks. Fondazione Cariverona has announced that it will subscribe up to 73% of its share of the 13 billion increase, thus decreasing to 1,8% of the bank's capital after the operation.
MEDIOBANCA AWARDS TELELECOM, TODAY THE BOD
Purchases on Telecom Italia +0,69% on the eve of the board of directors which will approve the 2016 preliminary results and the 2017-2019 business plan: Mediobanca Securities has confirmed the share as its top pick with an outperform recommendation and a target price of €1,23.
Good luxury. In evidence Yoox (+3,6%), Luxottica gained 1,8%, Tod's +1,3%. Safilo, after -7,5% on Wednesday, made a modest recovery (+1,02%). Kepler Cheuvreux cut the recommendation from "hold" to "reduce" by changing the target price from 7,1 to 6 euros, while Banca Akros lowered the rating to "reduce" from "neutral", a target that drops to 5,8, 8 from XNUMX euros.
