“Intesa's operation on Ubi, totally unexpected, shines a sudden light on the Italian banking sector, which in recent years had only seen bailouts, and forces operators to re-examine the sector: do you ever see that there is value to be extracted?” . Giuseppe Sersale of Anthilia thus becomes the spokesperson for the reactions of the markets to the sudden awakening of banking risk, the most positive note of an anomalous situation, marked more by medical bulletins than by the trend of the economy. Investors are on the hunt for the more curious statistics: those on home delivery of food, for example, report that Meituan, the most important platform that normally serves 5.500 restaurants, is working at 13%.
After the alarm raised yesterday by Apple, the Asian markets are reacting this morning thanks to some reassurances about the epidemic: Covid 19 killed 136 people yesterday in the Hubei district, while the new confirmed cases, with the new diagnostic system, are 1.749. down from the day before and once again below 2.000. The total infected, including the whole planet, are 74.180, the discharged for recovery are 14.380.
RISE TOKYO, BEIJING TO RESCUE AIRLINES
Tokyo's Nikkei is up 1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 0,4% and the Shanghai Composite is up 0,3% this morning. Supporting the markets is the belief that tomorrow the Central Bank will further reduce lending rates.
Beijing is also studying a plan to support the airline sector which could provide for the granting of extraordinary loans and measures to facilitate consolidation: the largest companies would have an incentive to save regional or local companies on the verge of bankruptcy.
WALL STREET DOESN'T DIGEST APPLE'S ALARM
Apple's warning slowed down the run of US stock markets: Dow Jones -0,56%, S&P 500 -0,29%. In practice, the Nasdaq is flat (+0,02%).
Wal-Mart sales (+1,5%) despite weak results and the expectation of a decline in online sales.
The first macroeconomic indications on the impact of the Chinese virus on the productive structure of the United States are giving relief: the manufacturing index of the State of New York stands at 12,90, against estimates around 5.
The Chinese yuan weakens and returns to 7 against the dollar. The yen falls to 110 against the dollar. In Japan, exports fell for the fourteenth consecutive month.
GOLD ABOVE 1.600 DOLLARS, HISTORIC HIGH
Brent oil up for the seventh consecutive day, at 58,3 dollars a barrel, +1%.
Gold continues to rise, this morning by 0,1% to 1.602 dollars, the highest since the beginning of the year: in euros it is an all-time high.
In the wake of gold, palladium's race continues: this morning the metal gained 4%, a new record, after yesterday's +4%.
Copper remains low, a sign of distrust of the prospects for a rapid restart of China's industrial apparatus.
BUSINESS PLACE DANCES ALONE. THE ZEW BALLASTS THE EURO
The Milan Stock Exchange danced by itself to the sound of the banking risk which finally got under way. However, the other lists did not participate in the party. The collapse of the Zew index, from 26,7 to 8,7, highlighted the slowdown in morale of German traders for fear that the coronavirus epidemic that broke out in China could have repercussions on global trade.
The euro paid the highest price: the euro/dollar exchange rate slipped below the 1,08 threshold, the lowest since April 2017. Since the beginning of the year, the single currency has lost about 3,4% of its value against the greenback. At this point, the reading of the PMI data released on Friday is decisive.
On day one of the process of consolidating Italian banks, the Milan Stock Exchange stands alone on the rise: Ftse Mib index +0,31% to 25.199 points.
The other European stock markets closed down: Dax in Frankfurt -0,86%, CaC 40 in Paris -0,52%, Madrid -0,16%.
London was also in the red (-0,85%) after the crash of the giant HSBC (-6,5%) after the drop in 2019 profits and the announcement of the cut of 35 thousand employees.
Pandemic fears also affect Italian bonds, which worsen towards the end: the spread rises to 133 basis points (+2,35%), the yield on 10-year BTPs is 0,92%.
UBI THROUGH THE STARS (+23,5%). MESSINA: "WE WILL NOT RAISE THE PRICE"
“We surprised you by launching an offer on Ubi, true, but it was a unique opportunity to create an even stronger European reality. We believe that the transaction will create value for all the shareholders of the two banks", said Carlo Messina, the CEO of Intesa, yesterday morning during the conference call with analysts dedicated to thepublic exchange offer with Ubi. Piazza Affari responded enthusiastically to Intesa's blitz, which made use of the direction of Mediobanca: the "hunter" stock closed up by 2,36%, at 2,60 euros.
Ubi Banca rose by 23,55%, to 4,31 euro, after having reached a maximum of 4,51 euro, thus exceeding the offer of Intesa, which envisages 17 newly issued ordinary shares against 10 Ubi. But no one expects raises. "We have no intention of changing the conditions offered or of raising the price we deem fair - said Messina - If they are accepted we will be happy, otherwise we will still be happy and we will continue to work independently on our industrial plan".
Messina also announced 5 thousand redundancies on a voluntary basis.
If the Ops is successful, Intesa will become the sixth banking group in Europe by revenues, very close to Deutsche Bank, and will confirm its third place in the EU by capitalization, consolidating this position. Together with Ubi "we are the third generator of net profit in the Eurozone, we will remain one of the strongest players and we will be able to have a rebound in Europe should interest rates rise".
BPER MISSES BPER: AN INCREASE FROM 7-800 MILLION IS IN SIGHT
The operation involves other entities: Bper Banca sells 9%. The bank has signed a contract with Intesa which, in the event of the success of the offer on Ubi Banca, provides for the purchase of a business unit consisting of around 1,2 million customers distributed across 400/500 bank branches in Northern Italy . The company has warned that to meet the investment it will launch a capital increase of at least 800 million euros.
UnipolSai (-0,1%) is expected to take over the business branches of the insurance companies Bancassurance Popolari, Lombarda Vita and Aviva Vita in which Ubi Banca holds a stake.
RISK EFFECT ALSO ON BPM, POP. SONDRIO AND CREDEM
All on the other banks: Banco Bpm +5%, Creval +5%, Banca Popolare di Sondrio +11%, Banca Monte Paschi +5%, Credem +4% and Unicredit 0,6%.
STM GOES OFF, PININFARINA (+3%) CELEBRATES 90 YEARS
Stm falls (-1,5%) held back by Apple's difficulties in China.
Fiat Chrysler-1%. Banca Imi and Equita Sim confirmed the buy recommendation and the target price at 15 and 16,8 euros respectively, after the data on car registrations in Europe in January dropped by 7,4%. Pirelli limited the losses (-0,23%), on which Mediobanca Securities confirmed a neutral rating and a Target of 5,6 euros pending the 2019 accounts and the new plan. Brembo -2%. Shoot upwards Pininfarina (+3,01%) on its ninetieth birthday.
FERRARI DIVIDEND RISES (+8%)
Ferrari has proposed the distribution of a dividend on 2019 results of 1,13 per share, for a total outlay of approximately 210 million, an increase of 8% compared to the distribution of the previous year, for a unit dividend of 1,03 euro .
In great evidence Poste Italiane (+3,8%): JP Morgan confirmed the overweight recommendation and the target price of 12,6 euros pending the 2019 accounts.
CAMPARI CHOOSES HOLLAND. INCREASE BUYBACK
Campari also chooses Holland. The Board has approved a proposal that provides for the transfer of the registered office to the Netherlands, with the introduction of a higher voting mechanism than the one already adopted by the company, "with the aim of strengthening the shareholder base and pursuing opportunities for external growth ”. The group will maintain its tax domicile in Italy, together with the maintenance of the group's operational and management activities, which will continue without interruption. The company will remain listed on the Stock Exchange.
The group closed 2019 with sales of 1,842 billion euros, with organic growth of 5,9%. Adjusted net profit stood at 267,4 million, up 7,3%. The company has announced that it will continue the buyback program for an increased amount up to 350 million euros over the next 12 months.
