The Italian manufacturing industry recovers but in 2020 it will lose, net of any new generalized lockdowns, 14,3% of its turnover. This is estimated by the Industrial Sector Analysis Report edited by Prometeia and Intesa Sanpaolo and updated in October. The only exception, needless to say, it is pharmaceuticals which, in fact, is advancing by 4%; then there are those who limit the damage such as Food and beverages, FMCG, Household appliances, Electronics and Building products and materials; and those who lose heavily, such as Mechanics, the fashion system and the automotive supply chain. For 2021-22, the study confirms the forecasts of a physiological but significant rebound in turnover, with an average annual growth rate of 6.8% at constant prices.
As for the transformation towards a more sustainable economy, Italy appears well positioned in the race towards climate neutrality European Union, with the reduction of 17.2% of its climate-changing emissions in the period 1990-2018, to which industrial processes also contributed. Italian manufacturing is today the second least intensive of polluting emissions after the German one, ahead of that of France and Spain, thanks to the innovative effort of companies, highlighted by the 5.1% market share on European green patents intended for manufacturing processes.
ANALYSIS BY SECTORS
Confirmed growth estimates for Pharmaceuticals (+3.9% at constant prices in 2020), the only exception in the sector picture, thanks to driving global demand, against a domestic demand for medicines in slight decline (summary of an increase in demand for Covid treatments and a decline in other therapies), and expectations of stability for the turnover of the Food and beverage sector (-2.8%), thanks to the weak growth in exports and the increase in food consumption domestic products, which partially compensate for the general decline in the Ho.Re.Ca. channel.
Following in the ranking, with a drop in turnover of around 7% at constant prices, are FMCG, buoyed by the buoyant demand for hygiene products, which however does not compensate for the decline in cosmetics, and Household Appliances (which are benefiting from a recovery in orders from foreign markets and domestic demand supported by the housing redevelopment driver, in a context in which the domestic environment is more experienced and also used for business needs). For Electronics, both the consumption of domestic technology and investments in digitization contribute to containing the fall in turnover in 2020 (-8.9% at constant prices).
Among the sectors that are expected to contract less than the manufacturing average, we find construction products and materials (-10.5% the expected drop in 2020, again at constant prices), whose turnover is benefiting from the restarting investment in construction, in particular of residential redevelopments (for which the ecological and anti-seismic incentives were strengthened), Other Intermediates (-11.8%), supported by the increase in demand for plastic and paper products linked to the health emergency and Chemical Intermediates (-9.2%) , thanks to the demand for chemicals for sanitizing products which is driving exports.
Performance in line with the average manufacturing trend for Metallurgy and Metal Products (with turnover expected to decrease by 14.3% and 14.5% respectively, at constant prices), whose activity is positively affected by construction but negatively by Mechanics and automotive supply chain. he economic difficulties in the automotive sector are also penalizing Electrical Engineering, which opens the lower part of the sector ranking (-15.2% expected drop in turnover at constant 2020 prices), despite the driving force offered by growing investments in an ecological keyboth in the automotive and construction sectors. Even more penalized was Mechanical Engineering (-18.4% expected contraction on average for the year), which is facing a marked decline in world demand (more than 13% in 2020, according to our estimates, against approximately -10% for total manufacturing) and a setback in investment on the domestic front.
The redevelopment of the home environment linked to smart working is driving the recovery of the Furniture sector, which after a very intense fall in the lockdown phase, should be able to contain the drop in turnover at constant 18.5 prices to 2020%. At the bottom of the ranking the fashion system (-25.4% the expected drop for 2020) and motor vehicles and motorcycles (-26.8%) are placed. They weigh on the performance of fashion a season essentially lost, due to the restrictive measures on mobility undertaken in the spring at an international level, and a closing of the year characterized by a climate of uncertainty, with limitations on social life which will further curb the consumption of these goods.
The automotive sector suffers from the effects of the heavy economic crisis which has led to a postponement of the demand for motor vehicles, even if the expectations are for a partial recovery of the sector's turnover between August and December, thanks to the boost of the eco-incentives for cars approved in the August Decree, which have already brought the registration numbers back to positive in September.
