The sell-off triggered by Fed decisions continues. All Asian markets are down sharply this morning, from Korea (-1,5%) to Singapore and Taiwan (-1,8%). The loss for Australia was heavier (-2,7%), driven by the drop in raw materials. Tokyo is closed for public holidays today and tomorrow. Hong Kong was also down (-1%). For now, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (+0,1%) has not moved much: the confidence index of large companies is down significantly.
GREEKS PROMOTE AGREEMENT WITH EU
The financial week thus opens amid heavy uncertainties. Thus a difficult start is looming for the European price lists. In the meantime, the markets are once again dealing with the Eurozone. The Greek elections ensured a robust majority for Syriza (35% of the votes). Alexis Tsipras will thus be able to form the government together with Anel, the small nationalist party already allied after the January vote. Now the harsh reforms, necessary to obtain European aid, can count on an adequate political consensus.
The Greek elections ushered in a busy electoral season for Europe. Next Sunday the Catalan elections could pave the way for the referendum for independence from Madrid. Waiting for the Spanish and Portuguese votes in December. The effect of France's rating downgrading also needs to be assessed this morning.
IN THE SPOTLIGHT: ABE, YELLEN AND XI JINGPIN IN THE USA
Among the macro appointments of the week, the trend of the Chinese manufacturing sector stands out. The statistics elaborated by Caixin will be released tomorrow, the official statistics on Wednesday: a rebound is expected compared to 47,9 in August, well below the boundary between growth and recession.
Great expectations also for Shinzo Abe's speech: the Japanese premier, who has just been reconfirmed at the helm of the majority party, will announce programs and objectives for the remaining government season.
In the United States, the most awaited statistic, the definitive data on GDP growth in the second quarter, will be released on Friday: the forecast is for the confirmation of an increase of 3,7%.
But attention is focused on the trip of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will meet Obama on Friday. Numerous interventions by the Fed. President Janet Yellen will be speaking at the University of Massachusetts on Thursday 24th.
Even in Europe, the PMI data is awaited with interest, the first real test to measure the impact of the drop in Chinese demand on the German economy. The forecast is that the figure for Berlin will drop from 53,3 to 52,8.
In Italy, after the presentation of the Def, the negotiations with the EU are getting underway: the government will ask the European Commission to raise the 2016 deficit to 2,4% against the 1,8% indicated in April also to finance the expenses related to the migrant emergency.
MILAN LOSES 1,14%. GOLD ONLY RISES
It starts again after a week dominated first by waiting for the decisions of the Federal Reserve, then by the concerns that emerged on the international situation. Between 14 and 18 September in Milan, the Ftse Mib index lost 1,14%. Since the beginning of 2015, Piazza Affari has recorded an increase of 13,2%. The Frankfurt Stock Exchange is worse off (-2,05%). Paris and London are also in negative territory. Slight progress for Madrid (+1,12%).
After a week marked by volatility, the American markets did not move much. The S&P index closed with a rise of 0,2%, supported by the good performance of the utilities sector (+2,5%), the most sensitive to the trend in interest rates, down after the failed increase by the Fed. Dow Jones – 0,3%. The Nasdaq gains 0,1%.
Crude oil prices are still weak: Brent -0,4% to 47,65 dollars a barrel. The WTI closed the week at 44,82. Among the few assets in positive territory is gold: +2,8% to 1.139 dollars an ounce.
COLOMBA FED: BTPs FLY
The message coming out of the Fed's monetary committee is “Hawk” for stocks, but sounds “dovish” for government bonds. The yield on the ten-year BTP fell to 1,78% on Friday, ten points below the levels prior to the Fed's choice. The difference in yield between the Italian and German bonds was reduced to 111 points. Tomorrow the Treasury will announce the amount of Ctz and Btpei offered next Friday.
UNIPOL ENTERS THE FTSE MIB. ADVANCE COUPON FOR ENI
Relay in the Ftse Mib index. He returns to the Unipol basket by taking the place of Autogrill which is included in the Mid Cap index where Banco di Desio and Brianza and Inwit make their debut. Instead, Cairo Communication and Trevi Finanziaria exit.
Eni's interim dividend (0,4 euro) and the second tranche of the Stm coupon (0,1 euro) will be paid today.
The Poste Italiane road show in London will end on Friday in anticipation of the IPO scheduled for 12 October. For the occasion, indications could arrive on the dividend policy.
WEAK BANKS, MONTE PASCHI UNDER FIRE
Among the negative data of the week, the slowdown in the banking sector. The worst performance of the week was that of Monte Paschi (-7,6%). A possible partner cannot be seen on the horizon, as confirmed by CEO Fabrizio Viola. Banco Popolare (-5%) and Ubi (-4,2%) also fell sharply.
FERRARI ACCELERATES, VOLKSWAGEN REA CONFESSES IN USA
It could be a difficult day for the auto sector. Volkswagen is about to face a historic fine in the US for having installed software on cars capable of manipulating data on CO2 emissions from diesel engines. CEO Martin Winterkorn has admitted the company's responsibilities, a move that could serve to reduce the amount of the penalty. The German giant risks a drain of 18 billion dollars.
Sergio Marchionne's mood is completely different. Ferrari's triumph in Singapore is the best possible spot for the next IPO of the Maranello company. Meanwhile, after the signing of the contract with the Uaw union, the CEO of Fiat Chrysler accelerates the pressure on GM.
A CHINESE PARTNER FOR ADR? ADVANCE ATLANTIA
Positive eighth for Atlantia (+3,4%), impervious to the resignation of Silvano Cassano as CEO of Alitalia after the bitter controversy over Fiumicino with the top management of the subsidiary Adr. The increase was favored by the news reported by Bloomberg that the sale of a 15% stake in the subsidiary Aeroporti di Roma (AdR) to the Chinese fund Gingko Tree Investment would be close. The proceeds from the sale will be used to invest in other airports: the company is very interested in the privatization of Nice and Lyon airports and in the sale of London City airport.
In their sum of the parts, Equita's analysts value Aeroporti di Roma by applying an M&A premium of 15% to AdR's valuation, equal to 4,1 billion euros or 10,3 times the estimated EBITDA for this year. While according to the experts of Mediobanca Securities the equity value of AdR is equal to 3,5 billion euros (4,1 billion the enterprise value of which 2,3 billion for the aviation business and 1,8 billion for the non-aviation business ).
TELECOM TACKLES THE BRAZIL DOSSIER. BOD IN RIO
Telecom flies to South America. On Friday, the Board will meet in Rio de Janeiro at the Tim Brasil office. On the agenda is the relaunch of the Carioca subsidiary (about one fifth of the group's EBITDA) struggling with the Brazilian recession and the devaluation of the real. The company has initiated cost savings in the order of one billion reals.
Given the economic situation, the hypothesis of a sale, destined to become a fire sale, has lost ground. However, there is talk of the interest of At&t and Nextel. It could be a favorable situation for purchases, but the prospect does not coincide with the intentions of Vivendi, the first shareholder of the former Italian incumbent, who left Brazil with an operation with a fortunate timing, before the Carioca crisis picked up speed.
