Full speed ahead. Taurus shrugs off worries about inflation, bottlenecks, the Chinese real estate crisis and any other obstacles. Wall Street scored the best session of the year, to then infect the Asian stock markets. Meanwhile, the race for bond yields is slowing down, but not the race for raw materials. In Asia Pacific, the Bloomberg Apac index gained 0,8% this morning.
TOKYO AT HIGHEST SINCE 2019
Tokyo's Nikkei +1,2%, while the dollar-yen exchange rate is pushing to levels not seen since the beginning of 2019. In his first interview, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida anticipates the Financial Times the intention to review Abenomics, i.e. the sub-zero interest rate policy.
The other price lists are all positive: Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0,8% after the passage of the typhoon; BSE Sensex of Mumbai +0,9%; Kospi of Seoul +0,9%, dominated by the efforts of the Central Bank to avoid the revaluation of the won against the dollar; Taiex of Taipei +2% dragged up by the rally of Tsmc, the world chip power.
The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists also rose (+0,3%). Bloomberg reports that the bank regulator has invited the controlled subjects to speed up and simplify the procedures for obtaining home loans. It would be an intervention that aims to prevent the stresses caused by a possible collapse of Evergrande.
THE BEST SITTING SINCE MARCH FOR THE S&P
Wall Street futures rose in the aftermath of the best session of the S&P500 index since March (+1,7%). Yesterday the Dow Jones gained 1,56% (highest daily gain since July 20), the S&P 500 1,71% (highest one-day gain since March 5), Nasdaq +1,73% (never so good on a day from May 20).
RECORD QUARTERLY FOR BANKS
All sectors closed higher. The banks are in great shape: on the day of the results, Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley run, which, thanks to the boom in market operations, have broken previous records.
The lesser tension on interest rates has favored the extension of technology: thanks to Microsoft and Apple, the sector index rises by 2,3%.
ALCOA (ALUMINIUM) +5%: PROFITS DOUBLE
Post-exchange Alcoa rallied more than 5%. The aluminum producer presented results for the quarter well above expectations: Adjusted Ebitda at $728 million, about double the result a year ago. The stock has nearly quadrupled in one year. Over the same period, the benchmark contract for aluminum was up 67%.
GAS RUNS: +35% IN THREE DAYS
Yesterday the Bloomberg Commodity Spot index reached a new all-time high, supported by the gas rush: the price of that traded at the Dutch node gained 35% in three days. But in recent weeks, industrial metals have also risen again: yesterday copper gained 3%.
WTI Oil was up 0,7% to 81,7%. Instead, bonds and the dollar stop. The 1,52-year Treasury Note trades at a yield of 1,160%, little moved. Euro dollar slightly appreciated to XNUMX.
Bitcoin is gaining momentum, +3% to $59.300, the highest since June. The most traded cryptocurrency has gained 36% since the beginning of the month. The latest extension would have been caused by a tweet from the Securities and Exchange Commission in which investors are warned about the high risk deriving from exposure to bitcoin. It seemed like a warning like many others, however, in the world of investors, optimism was unleashed, because according to them the SEC is sending warning signals in view of the imminent approval of an ETF whose underlying is bitcoin.
Why this surprise all-asset rally? The reasons abound. US unemployment benefits surprised on the downside, finally finishing below 300.000 for the first time since the post-pandemic. US producer prices rose much less than expected. In reality, the reason is only the drop in airfares, but the market wanted to reward the glass as half full.
At this point, it is easy to foresee a zigzagging trend of the stock prices in the coming weeks, with sudden upward deviations (the S&P is close to new highs) but also possible corrections after the introduction of the tapering.
THE RISE ALSO AFFECTS EUROPE
The wind of the upside hit the European stocks after the opening of Wall Street. The tweet by Olli Rehn, member of the ECB and governor of the Finnish central bank, contributed to favoring the positive trend: current expectations for inflation in the euro area, equal to 1,9% in the medium term, are in line with the strategy of the European Central Bank. The Board, despite the contrary declarations of the "hawks" (in particular the Dutch Knot), unites around the policy of Madame Lagarde.
GERMANY, THE RECOVERY WILL GET SPEED IN 2022
Germany's major economic institutes cut their joint forecast for growth in Europe's largest economy for 2021, to 2,4%, from 3,7% previously, amid supply chain issues that continue to undermine manufacturing output. However, the same institutions have revised upwards the estimates for next year to 4,8% from the previous 3,9%, adding that the German economy will reach normal levels of capacity utilization during 2022. In the meantime, the Inflation will grow by 2,5% in 2022, but in 2023, institutions estimate that inflation will grow by 1,7%.
BTP YIELDS ARE HABITING. SPREAD TO 102 POINTS
After Wednesday's surge, the Italian secondary made considerable progress in the afternoon, in line with the bunds: the yield on the ten-year August 2031 slipped to the 0,825% area, on its lowest since Tuesday last week, while the Italy gap -Germany narrows slightly, to 102 basis points. The Italian 0,84-year closes at +0,9% (from +0,23%) and the German one at -XNUMX%.
MILAN +1,23%, FITCH RAISES ESTIMATES FOR ITALY
Piazza Affari rises by 1,23%, to 26,277 points. Fitch has revised upwards its estimates of Italy's growth and debt. The forecasts for 2021 are now equal to 5,7% of GDP and 9,6% of the deficit/GDP, values to be compared with the respective 4,8% and 11,3% of the June estimates, when the agency had confirmed the Italian sovereign rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook.
AMESTERDAM ADVANCES TO THE SOUND OF CHIPS
The other price lists of the Old Continent are on positive ground: Amsterdam leads the race (+1,71%), followed by Frankfurt (+1,37%) and Paris (+1,33%). The Dutch Stock Exchange is confirmed as the most sensitive list to the tech sector. Semiconductor makers, including ASML, Ams and BE semiconductor, trailed after Taiwan giant TSMC reported a 13,8% jump in third-quarter earnings on booming demand.
PUBLICIS AWARDED BY THE DIGITAL TURNING POINT
In Paris, Publicis shines (+2,74%) after raising its outlook for 2021 following a global transition to digital media and e-commerce, pushing organic growth beyond expectations in the third quarter. British rival WPP advanced 0,57%. Behind Piazza Affari, weighed down by Leonardo's thud, London (+0,94%) and Madrid (+0,51%) close.
BANCO BPM LEADS THE CHARGE OF THE BANKS. FOR JEFFERIES IT'S BUY
Leading the blue-chip charge was Banco Bpm (+4,33%), driven by Jefferies' "buy" indication, which highlights the positive effects on accounts that could derive from the possibility of keeping the insurance business in-house, not yet priced by the market. The US broker assigns the hold board to Bper (+1,9%). Note Banca Ifis (+3,09%) after the decision to distribute the 2019 dividend, already frozen due to the blocking of coupons imposed by the US Banking Authority.
Among the strong financials also Finecobank (+4,2%) and Nexi (+2,4%) pending the antitrust's ok on the merger with Sia. Purchases in the energy sector: Eni +1,4%, Saipem +1,1%.
CNH SUFFERS, LEONARDO STOPS BY BOEING
Try to raise your head Cnh Industrial, weak for most of the session, weighed down by the announcement of the temporary closure of several production sites in Europe due to the shortage of key components, especially semiconductors.
Leonardo's slip, on which sales rained following press rumors about his relations with Boeing, inflicted a bad blow on the Milan price list. The manufacturer cites Leonardo as its main supplier for the 787 Dreamliner, adding that the Italian aerospace group in turn acquired the defective parts from a sub-supplier.
INTERMONTE ENTERS AIM, SALCEF IN THE STAR
Intermonte Partners sim is preparing to land in Piazza Affari. The controlling holding company of Intermonte sim presented the application for admission to the Aim to Borsa Italiana. The price range was set between a minimum of 2,6 and a maximum of 2,9 euro per share, for a total capitalisation, net of treasury shares, of between 83,6 and 93,2 million.
In the rest of the Openjobmetis list (+2,97%), on which Banca Akros raised the target to 13,3 euros from 12,2 euros, confirming the buy rating.
Money on Ferrovie Nord Milano (+5,87%), which has issued a 650 million euro bond loan with a 5-year term.
In light Salcef (+3,76%) after yesterday Borsa Italiana gave the group's ordinary shares the Star qualification. The start date of trading on the Star segment is scheduled for October 21st. Kolinpharma (+4,55% to 10,35 euros) stands out on Aim: EnVent raised its target price from 11,42 to 12,61 euros, confirming the outperform recommendation.
