“My words at the January 6 rally were adequate”. Donald Trump reappears in public at the Alamo, sanctuary of Texan pride (and John Wayne aficionados) after the assault on Congress and absolves himself of all responsibility. He does not repent, does not apologize, instead attacking the impeachment proceedings against him, which causes "tremendous anger". Regardless of the threat, Congress will vote to impeach the president tonight. And he will be able to count on a handful of Republicans (at least five). Meanwhile, XNUMX National Guard soldiers are converging on Washington: more than the entire US and NATO contingent in Afghanistan. Six thousand, from six states, already garrison the capital of the United States. However, the markets are not overly excited by the dramatic end of the presidency, also because the large groups have now distanced themselves and denied the tycoon funds.
TOKYO AT THE HIGHEST SINCE '90, JACK MA RESISTS
This morning the Nikkei index of the Japan Stock Exchange rises for the fourth consecutive day, reaching new highs since 1990. The Kospi of Seoul (+1%), the Taiex of Taipei (+1,5%) and the BSE are running again Sensex in Mumbai (+0,3% after the Indian Supreme Court blocked Modi's land reform).
The equity markets of China and the South East were on par or slightly down. In Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Alibaba was up 1,5%. The Financial Times reports that founder Jack Ma, who has been absent from the public eye since late October, works from home and is in contact with top management, consultants and friends. But he is trying to convince the government not to oppose the growth of Yu'E Bao, the system that allows you to put money into an investment fund, choosing the destination directly from your mobile phone and without going through other intermediaries, like a normal purchase of e-commerce. A blow to the heart for the banks.
DATES THE FUTURE US. GM +7% THANKS TO ELECTRIC
Wall Street's S&P 500 futures are up 0,2%. But, above all, yields on government bonds are falling again. The 1,12-year Treasury Note moved to 1,1870%, away from the highs of the last three and a half years, reached yesterday at XNUMX before a positive auction for T bonds. The moral suasion of the Fed favored the rebound. We are back to buying bonds, also because three members of the Federal Reserve have ensured that the robust restart of the United States economy expected in the second half of the year will not cause a revival of inflation. Eric Rosengren of Boston, in his speech last night, said that monetary policy will remain ultra-expansionary even from the beginning of the summer onwards, when the effects of mass vaccination will be seen: increased employment, acceleration of growth economy and consumption. The Federal Reserve board member ruled out the possibility of any short-term rethinking, even partial, of the Central Bank's commitment. Yesterday the presidents of the Atlanta and Richmond branches had opened up the possibility of a remodulation of the amount of purchases, but in the face of a completely improved and healthy macroeconomic scenario after the pandemic.
Stock market indices moved little yesterday: Dow Jones +0,19%, S&P 500 +0,04%, Nasdaq +0,28%. The Russell (+1,8%) is an exception, pending measures in favor of small businesses. GM leaps after the presentation of the "electric" plans and the news that Fed Ex will adopt the group's electric cars.
The dollar follows the trend of government bond yields and returns to decline after a few days of recovery. The cross with the euro is back above 1,22. Gold benefits, at $1.858 an ounce. Bitcoin down 5%, to $32.950.
Futures on the Eurostoxx (-0,03%) and on the German Dax (+0,03%) moved little this morning. For now, the Italian crisis does not create imbalances in the Eurozone.
ITALIAN RECOVERY PLAN APPROVED
Last evening the Council of Ministers approved the text of the Recovery Plan. The final document provides a total of 222,9 billion and is divided into six missions and 47 project intervention lines. The missions related to digitization and green transition will receive respectively 46,3 and 69,3 billion, the mission on infrastructure for sustainable mobility 31,4 billion, the one on education and research 28,5 billion. Labor and health policies will benefit respectively from 27,7 billion and 19,8 billion. The share of investments has increased, accounting for more than 70% of resources compared to the 21% allocated to bonuses.
BUT THE GOVERNMENT STAYS IN THE BALANCE
However, the fate of the government remains uncertain: late in the evening, Prime Minister Conte seemed unwilling to resign to start a Conte-ter and intending to aim for a vote in Parliament. On the other hand, Italia Viva has hinted that it will give the green light to the approval of the Pnrr, but that it will withdraw its delegation of ministers from the government. At the time of the vote, the ministers of Italia Viva, Teresa Bellanova and Elena Bonetti, chose to abstain, however postponing any resignation until this morning. The hypotheses in the field range from a piloted flash crisis to a new prime minister with the same majority, up to an executive with a different parliamentary basis. The hypothesis of the polls is more remote, while a call for responsibility comes from Colle.
EUROPE "WAITING FOR SURPRISES"
"Surprises never end", wrote Matteo Ramenghi of Ubs prophetic but seraphic. “We expect rapid landscape changes that will require frequent rotations between asset classes, sectors and themes”. And in the meantime the operators wait, tense like so many athletes on the starting line, waiting for less confusing indications from the periphery, Italy in the lead, but above all from the USA, where Donald Trump's last waltz is about to take place. Markets remain split: Investors on one side hope vaccine rollouts and higher government spending will help the economy recover; on the other, they fear that the still high coronavirus cases and political uncertainty represent a heavy ballast, at least in the short term.
BUSINESS PLACE -0,22%. MERKEL: LOCKDOWN UNTIL APRIL
Piazza Affari was almost flat at the end of the session: -0,33%, at 22.646. In pale Frankfurt red, -0,06%. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told her party members to expect the lockdown against the spread of the coronavirus in Germany to last until early April. The German newspaper Bild writes it.
UBS: YOU PAY TO KEEP YOUR MONEY IN THE ACCOUNT
Paris -0,2%; Madrid -0,26%. Swiss bank UBS cracks down on current accounts, which will close a fifth of its Swiss branches this quarter and start applying negative rates to customers who have more than 250 Swiss francs or euros in cash from July: the pandemic is the motivation of the institution, has favored online banking, while persistently low interest rates put severe pressure on the financial sector.
Worse London (-0,61%): the EMA said that AstraZeneca (-2% in London) and the University of Oxford presented a formal offer for the authorization of their anti Covid-19 serum and that a decision could arrive by 29 January.
THE SPREAD RISES TO 118. RATES AT 0,67%
The Italian secondary ended the session with sharply rising yields, in a market that is following the evolution of the internal political crisis. The gap between BTP and Bund rates on the 10-year segment stands at 118 basis points, up from the previous 110. The 0,67-year rate rises to 0,57%, from XNUMX% at the last closing, with a worsening towards the end.
The yields of the Bund, as well as those of the peripherals, also rose, albeit less markedly than that of the Italians. Spain placed €6,151 billion in 6- and 12-month government bonds in today's auction. Annual issuance was assigned at a rate of -0,55% from -0%.
MANAGED SAVINGS LEADS THE LIST
Strongly highlighted securities in the managed savings sector. FinecoBank +2%: new stock market record. In the long interview given to Sole24Ore, the managing director Alessandro Foti speaks with great enthusiasm about the colossal growth opportunities for internal lines, without resorting to acquisitions. The indicators of the performance of the assets are reassuring, especially the Asset Management area, which has reached 16 billion euro of assets under management and continues to grow.
Banca Mediolanum (+4%) was the best stock. Positive comments from all analysts. Banca Akros, which considers the data to be very strong, has raised its rating from neutral to accumulated, with a revised target price of 8 euros from the previous 7,5 euros.
Azimut (+2,3%) announced that 2020 should end with a net result of at least 375 million euros, up to a maximum of 415, against the 300 expected.
Banca Generali also certifies the good time for funding by institutions that are mainly dedicated to managing their customers' savings. The del Leone subsidiary closed the month of December with net inflows of 782 million euros, up 27% compared to December 2019.
Among the other financial stocks, Mediobanca (+1,31%) and Creval (+1,59%) did well.
THE ANTITRUST HOLDING DOWN POSTE, PRYSMIAN -6% AFTER THE PLACEMENT
Italian post office -1,7%. The Antitrust has prescribed the adoption of certain measures to prevent the emergence of a position of concentration in the context of the acquisition of the postal shipping operator Nexive.
Prysmian falls (-6%) after Clubtre, a company in which Tamburi Investment Partners holds 66,226%, sold 3,729% of the capital at a price of 29,250 euros per share through an accelerated bookbuilding procedure.
TIM, SUCCESSFUL LAUNCH OF THE SUSTAINABLE BOND
Tim (-3%) placed its first sustainability bond: one billion euro in value with a maturity of 8 years. The loan is intended to increase the group's energy efficiency and finance green and social projects. Demand exceeded 4 billion euros, which allowed Tim to price it well below the reference secondary market and to pay an annual coupon of 1,625%, the lowest ever. Furthermore, for the first time in Italy a Corporate will invest part of the funds raised in projects with a social value as envisaged in the Sustainability Financing Framework.
JP MORGAN PROMOTES CNH, OIL STOCKS FLY
The automotive sector rebounds: Fiat Chrysler +2,2%, Pirelli +3,6%, Cnh Industrial +0,2% (JP Morgan raises its target price to 14 euros). Lastly, robust performance for oil, on the day when Brent rose above 56 dollars a barrel: Eni (+1,63%) and Saipem (+1,04%) were among the best performing on the list. Tenaris shines (+3,28%).
