Shoot first, then inform yourself. The financial markets have adopted the philosophy of the Old West. Faced with the appearance of the new variant of the virus, called 1.1.520, arriving from South Africa, the stock exchanges reacted with sharp declines even if, for now, not much is known about the variant that has affected some African countries but also Hong Kong . But, as Jeffrey Halley, an analyst at Oanda from Singapore says, “generally the new variants are more dangerous. And it's certainly not the time to risk it." And so Great Britain has already suspended flights from six African countries, plus Hong Kong, where the variant, believed to be very contagious, is already circulating. A cold shower that coincides, ironically, with Black Friday, the great celebration of rediscovered shopping, which promises record results. The extremes are condemned to coexist.
TOKYO AND HONG KONG DOWN 2%, GOLD RISES
- The market reaction was immediate. Tokyo's Nikkei loses 2,6%, Shanghai and Shenzen CSI 300 -0,6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -2%. Kospi of Seoul -1,7%. Mumbai BSE Sensex -1,5%. Sydney's S&P ASX200 -1,7%.
- Regional stocks were also down, from Indonesia to the Philippines. The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell to its lowest level in the last two months. The sales mainly affect tourism, travel and travel companies.
- Safe haven assets such as gold, bonds and currencies considered safe are appreciated: the dollar-yen cross loses 0,5%.
EUROPE AND WALL STREET FUTURES FALL
Futures anticipate a strong downward start also for Europe and Wall Street, today half service (closed at 12) after Thanksgiving Day.
- The future of the S&P500 index marks a decline of 0,8%. Eurostoxx future loses almost 2%.
- Market rates are collapsing. Australia's 1,77-year bond yield fell nine basis points to 1,55%. US Treasury Notes up 7%, -XNUMX basis points.
THE RAND COLLAPSES, THE RUBLE DOWN
- Brent oil and WTI are down 2,5%.
- The euro-dollar cross rises slightly to 1,122.
- The South African rand is down 1,5%. The Russian ruble and the Turkish lira are also declining.
- Gold up 0,5%, just below 1.800 dollars an ounce.
AN ITALIAN MINISTER IN PARIS AND VICE VERSA
In this setting, Rome is preparing to host the signature of Treaty of the Quirinale between Italy and France, a cooperation agreement between the two countries which will favor the convergence of positions as regards European, foreign, security and defence, migration and economic policies. There could also be an article in the final text that provides for high-level institutional integration: once a quarter, and alternately, an Italian minister should participate in the French Council of Ministers and vice versa
- But the most significant financial event concerns the Telecom Italia board of directors, preceded yesterday by a new twist.
GUBITOSI OFFERS THE RESIGNATION, THE POSTAL IN THE FIELD
""In order to facilitate the decision-making process by the board of directors, I place the powers you have granted me at the disposal of the board of directors, for your appropriate evaluation". The first coup de théatre on the eve of a Telecom Italia board of directors which promises to be torrid is the work of Luigi Gubitosi who on Thursday evening handed over his powers to the board to request the appointment of financial advisors and "the immediate granting of a period of reasonable to conduct limited due diligence” against KKR's offer.
Thus the "trial" wanted by Vivendi opens with the manager's exit, the shareholder who disputes both the results and the strategies devised by Gubitosi to react to the drop in revenues, the increase in debt and the flop of the Dazn operation. But the future of the former incumbent of the TLCs is not played out only or above all within the walls of the board, as demonstrated, among other things, by the volatile trend of the share, at the center of exchanges which, in less than a week, involved more than 25% of the capital. Tim went as far as 0,5094 euros, beyond the 0,505 euros placed on the plate by the American fund, with the market starting to believe in a raise to overcome Vivendi's resistance and then retreating to 0,4985 euros.
Then there are the rumors about the interest of other possible protagonists of the match: not only the private equity firms CVC and Advent, but also Poste Italiane -2%, according to a rumor gathered by Dagospia. The following contribute to making these voices possible: 1) the willingness of the Italian government; 2) the favor of competitors for the creation of a single network that is completely independent from a service provider.
ECB SEEKING A COMPROMISE, EURO UNDER PRESSURE
The Governing Council of the ECB held at the end of October "found broad agreement on the fact that in the current situation the accommodative monetary policy position must be confirmed and continues to be appropriate to support the convergence of inflation" towards the medium-term objective by 2%. This is what emerges from the minutes of last month's meeting, in which the bankers put their hands forward: the central bank may not have available by the December 16 meeting all the data necessary to take a firm position on medium-term inflation . An increase can be expected in the short term but "it is important that the Governing Council maintains sufficient freedom of maneuver for future monetary policy actions", especially in the event that the price increase is confirmed as "transitional". In short, a slight advantage for the hawks over the doves with regard to the decisions that will have to be taken on the purchases of securities. But it must be said that all bankers agree that a rate hike in 2022 would be "premature".
THE SPREAD WIDES TO 131, BOT AUCTION TODAY
The publication of the minutes on a day with modest trading due to the closure of the US markets allowed a calmer session for the BTPs even if the upward pressure on yields continues.
The risk premium between Btp and Bund went up to 131 points from 127 at the closing.
The yield of the Btp rises up to 1,08% against -0.25% of the Bund of similar duration.
The Treasury has fully assigned the maximum amount offered of 2-year short-term BTPs, with the yield decreasing to -0,26%. Demand was high for the 10-year BTP-i, but the yield rose by 20 basis points to -0,65%.
the market is preparing for today's appointment with the placement of the six-monthly Treasury in which the Treasury is offering 5 billion with rates seen little moved compared to -0,55%, an all-time low, in October.
The euro-dollar rebounds from its medium-term lows of 1,121.
PIATTA BUSINESS SQUARE, FRANKFURT OPEN UNTIL 22pm
Wavering session for Piazza Affari with numerous albeit modest deviations from parity. The index closes in pale red: -0,04% at 27.098 points.
Political agreement has been reached on the 8 billion tax cut. In the end, Irpef prevails over Irap: 7 billion to one. The new Irpef of 2022 drops to four rates from five, strengthens the deductions that also absorb the 100 euro bonus, raises the no-tax area for pensioners and the self-employed. Irap is canceled for almost one million partnerships, VAT numbers, professionals, non-commercial entities, start-ups.
Frankfurt rises by 0,24%. Starting Monday, November 29, Deutsche Boerse will remain open until 22 pm, i.e. until New York closes. The extension of the hours will allow to react in the evening to what is happening on the American market and to benefit from the advantages of trading.
German GDP grew by 1,7% in the third quarter. The increase in coronavirus cases (75.961 new only yesterday) and the unusually high inflation rate are weighing on consumer confidence: the consumer sentiment index fell to -1,6 points, the lowest since June.
REMY COINTREAU +13% MAKES A TOAST FOR PARIS
Paris gains 0,48%; Amsterdam +0,57%; Madrid +0,54%; London +0,32%
Remy Cointreau +13,5% gives the Parisian stock exchange euphoria after excellent results: operating profit doubles thanks to the rally in sales in China and the USA. Pernod Ricard is also advancing +2,95%. Lvmh +1,45% thanks to the towing of Moet Hennessy.
In Zurich, Swiss Life rose by 3,55% after the announcement of a new buyout worth one billion Swiss francs and the increase in dividends.
ENEL LIGHTS UP MILAN, RAIN OF PROMOTIONS
Piazza Affari was once again illuminated by Enel +1,48% in the wake of the positive judgments of analysts after the presentation of the plan to 2024. Intesa Sanpaolo raised the rating on the stock from add to buy. “The new 2022-2024 targets have been substantially in line with our estimates and consensus”, report the analysts, who highlight the boost on investments. Equita sim, on the other hand, increased the weight of the stock in the main portfolio by 100 basis points, confirming the buy recommendation and the target price at 8,4 euro. Buy also confirmed by Deutsche Bank (target price at 8,5 euros). For Kepler Cheuvreux the target price is 9,2 euros, for Barclays it is 9,7 euros (overweight).
Among the utilities, strong increases for Alerion +5,5%, which benefits from the huge investments expected in renewable energies.
CAMPARI RUNS, DIASORIN RECOVERS
Remy Cointreau's exploit gives wings to Campari +3%. Insights on luxury: Tod's +1,4%, Ferragamo +2,35%
Diasorin slightly up +0,2%, recovering after Intesa San Paolo's decision to cut the recommendation to "hold" from "add":
Neglect the bankers: Unicredit -2%. Focus on Generali -0,43% after the insurance group announced that it had entered into exclusive negotiations with Crédit Agricole Assurances for the acquisition of La Medicale, an insurance company aimed at healthcare professionals.
MORGAN STANLEY GIVES CHARGE TO PRYSMIAN
Prysmian sale +1,2% promoted by Morgan Stanley which raised the target price to 35 euros from 34
The oil and oil service sector is down: Tenaris -0,93%, Saipem -0,98%, Eni -0,57%. The focus remains on next week's OPEC+ meeting,
GAS PLUS IN FLIGHT, TAKE OFF TAKES OFF AT EGM
Out of the main basket:
- Vola Gas Plus +9% in the wake of the announcement that construction of the first of the four development wells of the Longanesi project has started, thus kicking off the development phase of the group's most important Italian project, with estimated 2P gas reserves in 1.100 million cubic meters of Gas Plus share.
- Very positive debut on EMG for Take Off, the clothing retail chain that earns 10%.
