The financial week gets off to a good start: oil recovers positions (Brent and Wti +1,1%), safe-haven assets slow down, from gold (-0,5% to 1.220 dollars an ounce) to the yen (-0,3 ,2016%). Thus the attempt to recover share prices resumes after the bad start of XNUMX.
Tokyo rises (+0,6%), despite the disappointing data that emerged this morning from the PMI indices. Hong Kong (+0,9%) and the squares of Shanghai (+2,1%) and Shenzhen (+1,8%) are doing even better. Over the weekend, the head of the local Consob Xiao Gang, who is very close to the governor of the central bank, was dismissed, thus paying for the reverses suffered by the price lists in recent months. In his place was Liu Shiyu, former president of the Agricultural Bank of China.
BREXIT EFFECT ON STERLING, WORST CURRENCY OF 2016
The European and US markets also seem to be off to a positive start. The pound was in the spotlight, down 0,9% against the dollar in early trading after the announcement of the Brexit referendum. Between now and June 23, the date of the vote on the United Kingdom's permanence in the EU, the markets will bet on the possible schism in London and on the consequences for the Eurozone. The British currency is the worst in 2016 with a decline of 3%. This morning, the mayor of London Boris Johnson took the field, who sided with the proponents of no to the EU.
OIL, THE MARKET AIMS FOR PEACE. ENI ACCOUNTS ON FRIDAY
First of all, the difficult search for an oil pax will take center stage during the week. Consultations between the big oil producers will end on March XNUMX, Russian Nowak revealed. Only then will it be understood whether the agreement between Moscow and Saudi Arabia to freeze production at January levels will have also involved the other OPEC members, starting with Iran and Iraq, and the other big oil producers.
In the meantime, it is foreseeable that the ups and downs on the markets will continue. The last week ended, after significant fluctuations, with a balance sheet in perfect balance. But the first positive signs can be seen: the production of American shale oil is slowing down but, underlines the Wall Street Journal, the markets are looking at the sector with greater confidence: oil and gas producers have in fact successfully issued new shares for more than 5 billion dollars since the beginning of the year, with three offers only on Wednesday the 17th, confirming that according to the major operators, the drop may have reached a minimum.
The Eurostoxx Oil & Gas index (+3,4%) also sent out encouraging signals. The +4,57% of Eni stand out (the 2015 accounts will be communicated on Friday morning) and the +4% of Total. Evidence of recovery also for Saipem (+9,60%). However, the banks in the consortium guaranteeing the capital increase will have to subscribe 1,18 billion shares for a total value of 427 million euro.
G20, US GDP AND THE TTIP NEGOTIATIONS
Other topics will occupy the geopolitical agenda. There is great expectation for next weekend's G20 summit, which will meet in Shanghai, the epicenter of the crisis that has hit the markets since last August. It will be an opportunity to agree on measures capable of averting the dreaded currency war.
More attentive US statistics will arrive on Friday: inflation and US GDP performance in the fourth quarter. The first signs of a recovery in prices above 2% have already rekindled the interest rate debate. A hike at the March 16/17 Fed meeting is unlikely, but markets will be keeping a close eye on the many central bankers' interventions expected this week: Yellen's deputy Stanley Fischer and Atlanta Fed's Dennis Lockart will speak on Tuesday . Reports on the economic situation of Richmond and Kansas City will also be released during the week.
Against the backdrop of this morning's resumption of negotiations for the TTIP, the treaty on tariffs and trade rules between Europe and the United States, the last major appointment of the Obama presidency.
THE UNKNOWN OF RATES BELOW ZERO. TREASURY AUCTIONS UNDERWAY
The Eurozone's attention is already focused on the ECB directorate of 3 March which should launch new expansionary measures to counter deflation. Important in this light is the release of the Eurozone PMI data, a key indicator of the economic trend of the various EU countries. The most awaited numbers are those arriving from Germany (which will also release data on inflation and retail sales), since the indications of recent months have made it clear that the repercussions of the Eurozone slowdown are making themselves felt more and more strength even inside the German fortress.
In the meantime, interest rates are holding back, confirming the difficult international situation. Japanese 0,20-year government bonds slipped into negative territory. German 6-year bonds, down for five weeks, slipped to 1,71% (-1,56 points). The decline also involved the countries on the periphery of the euro area: Spanish 9-year bonds closed the week at XNUMX%, XNUMX-year BTPs at XNUMX% (-XNUMX basis points).
In this context, the end-of-month auctions of the Italian Treasury kick off. Tonight the amount of the 6-month Bots that will be offered at auction on February 25th will be communicated. Friday will be the turn of the Btp. On day 24, Btpei for 0,5-1 billion will be placed. There is no offer from Ctz.
PIAZZA AFFARI, THE FIRST PLUS SIGN OF 2016
The Stock Exchanges archived the first positive week of 2016. But the repercussions on the end of crude oil prices and the banking sector confirmed that the lists, after the great landslide, remain weak. Plus sign for US stocks: S&P +2,8%, Dow Jones +2,6%, Nasdaq +3,8%. Compared to the beginning of January, the S&P index is still down by 6,2%.
Even the Milan Stock Exchange, after an ordeal of seven consecutive weeks of decline, closed in positive territory. The balance of the last five sessions, despite the drop on Friday (-1,1%), marks a recovery of 2,39%. Since the beginning of the year, the performance of the Milan stock exchange has fallen sharply by 21%.
The overall index of the Stoxx 600 European stock exchanges gained 4,1% during the week (today -1%) and thus reduced the loss since the beginning of the year to -11%. The recovery of the Stock Exchanges had as protagonists the stocks of mining and raw materials companies (Stoxx of the sector +8,1% in the week), the Automotive stocks (+7%) and the Insurances (+4,8%) .
FERRARI WINS ITS FIRST GP ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE: COUPON OF 0,46 EURO
The best stock was Ferrari (+14,38%) driven by the entry into the capital of George Soros. The Board of Directors approved the distribution of a coupon of 0,46 euro starting next May 23rd.
Today's agenda includes the board of RCS Mediagroup and Axelero. On Thursday 26 the mandatory conversion of Pirelli savings shares into unlisted special shares will take effect.
VIVENDI SALES AGAIN IN TELECOM. SPOTLIGHT ON MEDIASET
In the spotlights of Piazza Affari today the Vivendi-Telecom Italia-Mediaset triangle. Filings sent to the SEC revealed Friday evening that Vivendi further strengthened its stake in Telecom Italia to 22,8% from the previous 21,4%.
The advance of the Parisian media giant coincides with the interest in Mediaset, +11,54% in the week on the wave of advances from a share (not excluding the majority) of the subsidiary Premium. Vivendi makes no secret of the desire to build a large content hub in Southern Europe through the alliance between Mediaset, Telecom and Telefonica, already a 10% shareholder of Premium.
The main obstacle seems to be the price. Mediaset has already rejected Rupert Murdoch's offer, judging the offer of 1 billion euro insufficient, Bolloré does not seem willing to go further, but is proposing a "card for card" exchange with the aim of a wide-ranging industrial agreement. The 2015 results of Mediaset, which will be announced on 22 March, will be decisive. On that occasion you will have a more accurate picture of the state of health of Premium.
BPM-POPOLARE, TOWARDS THE WEDDING WEEKEND
The board of directors on the accounts of Intesa San Paolo stands out this week, scheduled for tomorrow. It could be the week of the wedding between Bpm (Board of Accounts meeting tomorrow) and Banco Popolare. The cards of the merger between Bpm and Banco Popolare are being studied by the ECB, which allegedly asked for information on the evolution of doubtful loans.
The objective is to achieve a significant increase in coverage of non-performing loans over the course of the business plan, avoiding the need for a capital increase. According to Equita analysts, to date, on the basis of 2016 estimates, the coverage of problem loans of the combined entity is 34% and should rise to 39% at the end of 2018 thanks to the normalization of the flow of problem loans.
In the meantime, confirming the high volatility of the sector, strong sales fell on both Thursday and Friday at the end of the session, above all on Italian banks. Unicredit (-2,86%) and Intesa (-2,84%) are at the bottom of the ranking of the Ftse Mib basket. But among the best stocks, the rebound of Mps (+11,50%) and Bper (+10,50%) stands out.
The Eurostoxx Bank index achieved a positive weekly balance of 1%, first gain after seven consecutive octaves in the red. But, to confirm the high volatility, in the end of the session both last Thursday and last Friday it rained heavy sales, above all on Italian banks.
