There is a storm in the air on the markets, already grappling with the war of duties and the uncertainties of the Italian manoeuvre. Something more serious than a mid-summer downpour, also because it concerns areas of great importance for the Bel Paese. Starting with Turkey, grappling with the long divorce between Erdogan and the West, which risks destabilizing the international finance picture.
Yesterday, Ankara's currency lost 4% to 5,49 against the dollar (-31% since the beginning of the year), after the failure of the mission to Washington by Erdogan's collaborators to remove the sanctions raised by the US. The economy ministry has revised its 2018 GDP growth estimates downwards from +5,5% to +4% in view of a tightening, albeit in contrast with Erdogan's wishes. Meanwhile, the risk of a default rises: exposure to the dollar amounts to 148 billion (4 times as much as in 2006), plus 110 billion to the euro. Today the collapse of the lira continues and worsens, carrying the currency to new all-time lows.
THE ECB MONITOR ALSO ON BNP AND BBVA
And the effects are felt. The Financial Times revealed this morning that the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the arm of the ECB which supervises the activity of the large systemic banks, has already turned on a light on the exposure of Unicredit (which today collapses on the stock market by 4%), the French Bnp Paribas and the Spanish BBVA. The Italian bank boasts credits of 17 billion euros, less than the French (38,3 billion) and, above all, the Spanish group, which boasts credits of 83,3 billion. Unicredit has already valued its stake in Yapi Kredit (40,9% controlled) at 1,15 billion euros from 2,5.
THE RUBLE UNDER FIRE, SHARP DOWN FOR OIL
No less turbulent is the Russian source. The ruble suffers, at 66,03 against the dollar. The cross is at a two-year high following the arrival of US sanctions on Russia, held responsible for the nerve gas attack on former Russian spy Sergei Skripal. But in this case the stakes for Italy are much more modest: Recordati -0,4% and Buzzi -0,9% are the companies listed on the Piazza Affari most exposed to Russia.
The sharp drop in Brent oil -3,2%, to 71,9 dollars a barrel, the lowest in the last three weeks, fits into this picture. Oil prices lost 0,9% on Wall Street last night. Occidental Petroleum-4,2%.
It is easy to predict that the decline will extend to Piazza Affari today. Yesterday Eni -0,7%. Tenaris +0,8%, Saipem +2,5%, the best of the basket.
TOKYO WEAK BUT GDP RISES
The markets thus embark on a weekend dominated by caution, despite comforting signals from the economies, starting from Asia.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange -0,5% is down this morning, despite the macro index beating estimates: in the April-June period, growth was 1,9%. In the first three months of 2018 there was a contraction of 0 or.9%. The consensus was expecting +1,3%. The yen strengthens against the dollar: the dollar-yen cross is down by 0,3% to 110,7.
The other squares are weak. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is down by 0,8%, that of South Korea by 0,9%. CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges -0,3%.
ONLY NASDAQ RISES IN NEW YORK, BITCOIN RECOVERS
On Wall Street, the advance of Apple +0,8% and Amazon +0,6% to a new absolute record made it possible to compensate for the slowdown in the energy and chips sector, after the downgrade of Morgan Stanley.
The Dow Jones closed down 0,29%, S&P 500 – 0,14%, Nasdaq +0,04%. Bitcoin, which has fallen by more than 15% in the last four sessions, rebounds and rises by 3%, the loss since the beginning of the year is 52%.
MILAN -0,7% ONLY FRANKFURT RISES
The economy of the Eurozone, albeit solid, still needs monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank, which does not hide its concern about the possible effects of protectionist policies, the most dangerous in the last 50 years. The judgment of the Economic Bulletin of the ECB summarizes the current phase of the Old Continent's price lists well: the economic situation is holding up, the euro is solid but worries (duties and Italian maneuver in the lead) are holding back animal spirits. Pictet Asset Management writes that it has not taken a more aggressive stance on equity, despite the positive signs in terms of global economic growth and corporate profits, because the tariff war continues to cause concern.
Milan (-0,7% to 21.634,25 points) was the weakest list of the day. London is also weak -0,4%. Dish the Cac 40 of Paris and the Ibex 35 of Madrid. The only positive market is the Frankfurt Dax +0,3%. Adidas flies +9,4% on the wave of the quarterly which confirm the sales boom during the World Cup.
SPREAD STABLE ABOVE 250
The Btp/Bund spread remains above the 250 points threshold. The yield differential between the 252-year Italian benchmark and the same German maturity in fact closed trading at 251 basis points, slightly above the 2,90 points of the previous day but below the highs of the day. The yield of the XNUMX-year benchmark BTP also showed little change, which stood at XNUMX%, the same level as on the previous day.
BANKS UNDER FIRE, MEDIOBANCA HOLDS
The banking sector slowed down the price list, the most sensitive to signs of tension on public finances: the Italian sector fell back by 1,17%. The European index was practically unchanged -0,08%.
Bper Banca (-1,13%) lost further ground after the losses on the eve. Intesa (-1,06%) and Ubi (-1,04%) fell.
Unicredit does even worse -1,9%, while Mediobanca rises +0,41%. Meanwhile, rumors are growing about a possible early cancellation of the Piazzetta Cuccia pact by Unicredit, in the face of disagreements between Jean-Pierre Mustier and Alberto Nagel.
The rest of the sector was weak: Credem -2,25%, Banca MPS down by 1,57%. Going against the trend is Creval (+0,98%). There collaboration with Crédit Agricole “it could lead to an overall potential partnership' said the managing director Mauro Selvetti.
TODAY THE PLANET ACCOUNTS UNIPOL
Spotlights on today on Unipol -2% and Unipolsai -0,19%, while awaiting the results for the first half. Meanwhile, the market is wondering about a possible reorganization of the group, even if the CEO, Carlo Cimbri, has repeatedly dismissed the hypothesis of merging the two companies, defining it unnecessary and in any case not on the table, at least until Unipol Banca snon will get married with another institution (ie Bper).
NEW CEO FOR CNH, RECOVERS FERRAGAMO GUCCI LOOK
Bad day for the Agnelli galaxy: FCA lost 1%. Ferrari 0,4%. The decline also Cnh Industrial -1,6% recorded a decline of 1,6%, on the day of the appointment of the new CEO, Hubertus M. Muehlhaeuser, in office since 17 September.
Ferragamo's recovery continues +0,45% which since 3 August, following the appointment of Micaela Le Divelec (formerly Gucci) at the helm of the group, has gained more than 5%. Moncler was also positive (+0,48%).
Male Aedes (-4,27%) after the approval of the demerger project aimed at separating the typical Siiq activities from the real estate trading ones.
