The wait is almost over. In 48 hours, America will know the name of the occupant of the White House for the next four years. The day after, the other most awaited event of 2012 will begin: the Chinese Communist Party congress (2.270 delegates) from which the team that will govern the most populated country on the planet for the next ten years will emerge when, as Goldman's Jim O'Neill foresees Sachs, China will be able to overtake the United States.
It is not surprising that, in anticipation of events of this magnitude, the Stock Exchanges pulled the oars in the boat on Friday. Or that the script is destined to repeat itself in today's meeting, lacking in significant macro or corporate events, except for the Mexican G20 meeting, which however does not involve the US and Chinese finance managers. At the center of the discussions were concerns about the US fiscal cliff and, as usual, the European crisis. For Australian Treasury Minister Wayne Swan, the global economy remains "fragile" precisely because of Europe. “Today there are 18,5 million unemployed in the Old Continent – he commented -. More than the inhabitants of the whole of Australia”.
This morning the news arrives from the southern continent that the Federal Court in Canberra has condemned S&P for granting triple A ratings to some Abn Amro products which proved to be toxic. In the ruling (1.500 pages), the first in the world, S& P's judgment is judged "deceptive and misleading".
ASIA
The Japanese Stock Exchange falls (-0,53%) along with Hong Kong (-0,43%), amid thin trading volumes. The markets have entered a phase of waiting for political events, even if some corporate stories hold the court. Shanghai was also down (-0,4%), despite the fact that for the first time in 19 months the non-manufacturing firms index is signaling a recovery.
In Seoul, the news from America that Korean manufacturers allegedly lied about the consumption characteristics of the cars translated into a heavy drop for Kia and Hiunday, both - 6%. Rebounds in Tokyo Toyota, +2,1%, but the exploit of the day is Foxconn: +34% thanks to profits for the production of the iPad.
AMERICA
Many pre-election unknowns. In the event of a Democratic victory, Wall Street predicts, the auto, manufacturing and technology sectors will benefit. Obama's success would be bound to strengthen the policy Ben Bernanke, to the advantage of a monetary policy favorable to the financial system. Big benefits also for gold.
A victory by Romney, in addition to causing a probable rebound in the share price, would be viewed with great favor by the defense, insurance and pharmaceutical sectors. The big energy companies and the investment banks are also cheering on the challenger against the reforms envisaged by Dodd-Frank.
Flat calm on Wall Street, stressed by Sandy's forced vacation and electoral uncertainties. The last week thus closed with a modest gain of the S&P +0,2% and an equally slight drop in the Dow Jones index -0,1%. Prominent the slowdown of Apple, -4,5%, the most marked since 2008. The purges decided after the flop of maps on the iPhone weigh on the Apple stock, but also the "slow" start of the mini iPad. Conversely, industrial and consumer goods stocks are in good health: the Morgan Stanley, Cyclical index rises by 2,4%. 71% of quarterly earnings announced so far beat analysts' estimates.
EUROPA
Relative calm reigns in euro area debt markets. Madrid, which continues to postpone the request for aid to the EU, this week it will launch the most demanding long-term bond auction since the beginning of 2010. A new benchmark will be offered on Thursday 8 November, coupon face 4,5% maturing 2018. The uncertainty regarding Madrid and Athens favored, for the second week in a row, a recovery of the 1,45-year Bund, traded at 9% (-XNUMX basis points).
It will be a crucial month for Europe. An extraordinary European summit will be held on 24 and 25 November in which an agreement will be sought on the banking union, the Commission's budget and the German request for a super commissioner on the budgets of the member states which has so far been rejected by Paris. The keynote speech that Angela Merkel will give to the Euro Parliament on Wednesday 7 will open the November agenda, before a meeting with the eurosceptic David Cameron.
Beyond the intense diplomatic work, the tension remains palpable, especially on the Spain and Greece dossiers. Disturbing news arrives from Frankfurt: the financial director of the German company Merck he said in an interview with Boersen Zeitung on Saturday that the house it will no longer supply Greek hospitals with the anticancer drug Erbitux, given the stop in payments since last June.
Australian Treasury Minister Wayne Swan, leaving for the G20, was explicit: the global economy remains "fragile", starting with Europe. “Today there are 18,5 million unemployed in the Old Continent – he commented – That is more than the inhabitants of the whole of Australia”. A merciless comment that comes on the eve of the publication of the Community's autumn economic forecasts, scheduled for Wednesday.
In Europe, the auto sector was the best performer on Friday with the Stoxx index up 1%. In sharp decline Deutsche Telekom , which lost 2,6% following the newspaper's indiscretions Reuters which hypothesizes a drastic cut in the dividend in the next few years (-30%).
ITALY
Stable the BTP at 10 years with the spread at 349, unchanged. There are no Treasury auctions this week. The ministry has made it known that the calendar of issues already envisaged between now and the end of the year will not change but, thanks to the success of BtpItalia, the amounts will be lighter than the deadlines.
Last week's balance sheet for Piazza Affari that's a 1% hike. Since the beginning of the year, the index has gained 4,4%. This morning the dividend of Danieli & Co. (€0,33 ordinary; €0,3507 savings). Also scheduled for today is the board of directors of tassara, the financial company of Romain Zaleski heavily exposed to banks (understood in the lead). Expected decision to list on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Ally bank. Given the offers deemed insufficient, the hypothesis of a transfer to an entrepreneur or consortium of subjects has faded.
Friday was a mixed day for the Milanese blue chips, even within the same sector. Fiat Industrial lost 2,2% after UBS downgraded to neutral da buy. Stocks most directly affected by the US vote were down: Fiat, always in the eye of the storm, it fell 0,8%. The Lingotto "roots" for Barak Obama. Bad day for Finmeccanica-1,4% which, on the contrary, has to gain from the affirmation of Mitt Romney, proponent of a policy of strong investments in the defense sector.
Pirelli it closed up 0,3%. Meanwhile, the big maneuvers around the holding continue camfin , at the center of the conflict between former allies in the Gpi, Marco Tronchetti Provera and the Malacalza family.
Telecom Italy is down 2%. The stable is highlighted Benetton. Atlantia rose by 1,4%. The motorway group requested access to the Virtual Data room of the auction for 80.11% of the Milan Serravalle (52,19% in the hands of the Province of Milan, 18% of the Municipality and the shares of some Chambers of Commerce) which is scheduled for November 26th. The Gavio group and Vito Gamberale's F2i fund will also participate in the tender, perhaps with a joint offer.
Brilliant throughout the session Rest, gained 2% as Credit Suisse raised its rating to outperform from neutral. The banking sector contrasted: they recorded brilliant increases MontePaschi +3,6% and Mediobanca +2,5%, while Intesa fell -0,6% e PopMilan -0,9%
