The long-awaited slap comes at the end of a black day, in which the Milan Stock Exchange confirmed itself as the black shirt of the Old Continent's price lists.
Moody's, after the warning launched against Italy, has placed the rating of the main Italian public companies under observation for a possible downgrade. The companies involved, according to a note, are Eni, Enel, Finmeccanica, Terna and the Post Office.
In particular, the ratings under review are the long-term A2 senior unsecured rating of Enel and its guaranteed subsidiaries Enel Finance International NV and Enel Investment Holding BV, and for Enel Finance International also the short-term rating. The Aa3 long-term senior unsecured rating of Eni and the A1 senior unsecured rating of Eni Lasmo (USA). And again, the long-term A3 senior unsecured rating of Finmeccanica and the long-term Aa2 rating of Poste and the 750 million bond guaranteed by the government. Terna's long-term rating A2 senior unsecured ee issuer ratings and short-term P-1 are also under observation. Poste Italiane's short-term Prime-1 rating has not been placed under observation.
OUTSTANDING HAND OF EADS FOR FINMECCANICA
ENEL REMAINS A BUY FOR MERRILL LYNCH
Moody's decision also affects Finmeccanica (+0,63% to 7,99 euros), one of the few stocks that closed yesterday's session in the black. Merit of the declarations from Le Bourget of the CEO of EADS Louis Gallois who has aired possible collaborations with Finmeccanica, particularly in the field of drones and in space (in addition to existing ones such as Mbda missiles and ATRs). “We believe it is unlikely that anything will happen in the short term”, Equita brakes in her daily note. More credit deserves the indiscretion that Finmeccanica is in the running to buy from Bell 51% of the jv for the development and production of the tiltrotor, in order to speed up the program (it currently has orders for 83 aircraft for about 800 million dollars). “We believe it makes sense from a strategic point of view”, Equita announced that it has maintained the buy recommendation on the stock and the target price at 11,6 euros.
Cold showers also for Enel (-1,2%) which Merrill Lynch had gratified in the morning with the confirmation of the buy judgment with a target price of 5,25 euros. The group is examining the possibility of a nuclear partnership with the Russian government but a final decision has not yet been made, CEO Fulvio Conti told Reuters. Session down also for Eni and Saipem (-3,47%) despite the announcement of new contracts in offshore and onshore drilling for a total value of 600 million dollars
US BAGS. PROFITS OVERCOME GREEK FEAR
AND THE BIG CORPORATIONS ASK OBAMA FOR A TAX SHIELD
Investors from overseas, more than those from the old continent, seem to trust the words of the president of the Eurogroup Jean Claude Juncker, for whom a solution to the Greek question will be found. After a shaky start, the Wall Street indices turned positive. Tensions on the Greek front did not prevent the S&P from closing in surplus (+0,54%) on a par with the Dow (+0,63%) and the Nasdaq (+0,50%) on a day in which it was not released no economic data.
The market, awaiting indications from Europe, also recorded the rebound without emotion (+0,43% to 93,40 dollars). If anything, Wall Street's attention is focused on the fiscal game underway in Washington, in which the multinational lobby plays an important role. The "New York Times" dedicates its opening to pressing the big names to reduce the tax on profits from 35 to 5,25 percent which, otherwise, will not be repatriated. To get an idea of the figures at stake, suffice it to say that Google has cash outside the US of 17 billion dollars, Microsoft 29. It is estimated that the total amount of profits outside the US reaches one trillion dollars. The promise, in the face of this maxi tax shelter, is to put capital back into circulation intended to restart employment, even if a previous agreement at the time of the Bus presidency resulted above all in a shower of buybacks and extra dividends. However, multinationals do not despair: an extra income, albeit with a discount, is a precious commodity for Congress looking for a way to keep the budget under control.
Faced with worries about the fate of the euro and the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the fundamentals of the S&P are playing a few days before the start of the quarterly campaign. According to forecasts, the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 will increase profits by 18 percent, compared to twelve months ago. If this were the case, given current prices, the average price earnings would be at the lowest values since 1985; 14,5 times against an average of 1991 times since 20,5.
BAGS. RISING ASIAN PRICE LISTS
AND THE EURO IS ALSO IMPROVED
The words of Jean-Claude Juncker (“we will find a solution for Greece”) contributed to a positive session, the fourth in a row, of the Far Eastern lists, The Nikkei 225 index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange registers an increase of 0,9 .0,5%, the Msci Pacific index closes with an increase of 1,4332%. The euro also benefits, trading at 114,88 against the dollar and 3 against the yen, a sharp loss, however, for the shares of China Construction Bank (-21%) on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange: the news has spread that Bank of America, in order to meet the required capital parameters, will have to put its $XNUMX billion stake in the Beijing credit giant up for sale.
TONIGHT THE VOTE OF THE GREEK PARLIAMENT
EXPECTED YES TO THE AUSTERITY PACKAGE
Tonight, the spotlights on the markets will all be concentrated on the meeting of the Greek Parliament which will have to give the go-ahead to the package of measures developed by Prime Minister George Papandreou together with experts from the IMF, the EU and the ECB. The forecast is for approval by a large majority given that the opposition, while rejecting the hypothesis of entering a government of national unity, has sent signals in this direction.
Yesterday, European finance ministers asked Athens to introduce new austerity measures, as a condition for giving the green light to the extension of the 12 billion aid package for Greece. The Eurogroup has set an extraordinary meeting for July 3 and by that date the Greek parliament will have to approve the new plan. European ministers expect the new funds (the next tranche in the framework of the 110 billion euro rescue plan provided by the European Union and the Monetary Fund) to be paid by July. Greece said it needed the loans by that time to avoid default.
Meanwhile, the finance ministers of the Eurogroup have decided that the bonds issued as part of the intervention project in favor of Greece, Portugal and Ireland, totaling 500 billion intended for the ESM, will not enjoy privileged credit status. A choice which, according to the Financial Times, will facilitate the return of these three countries to the bond market, once the emergency phase has ended. The ESF fund, which will replace the current ESM mechanism, will become operational from mid-2013.
TREMONTI: IMMEDIATELY THE 40 BILLION MANEUVER
THE MILAN STOCK EXCHANGE BLACK JERSEY OF EUROPE
To turn off the combination of the Moody's-Greek crisis Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti announced yesterday morning the forthcoming go-ahead for the approval of a 40 billion euro plan. The reaction of the bond market yesterday morning was immediate: the differential between the Italian ten-year yield on the German one this morning rose to 195 basis points but in the end it returned to 189 basis points, practically in line with the 190 on Friday. The euro recovers against the dollar with which it is exchanged at 1,43.
However, nothing prevented a black day for the European stock exchanges which still closed down but above the lows reached during the day. Milan lost 2% (-1,5% net of the ex-dividend of some of the main stocks in the list: A2A, Enel, Terna), London -0,4%, Paris -0,6%, Frankfurt -0,2, 12%. Piazza Affari, even taking into account the coupon effect, is the list most affected by the turmoil linked to the Greek crisis. Since the beginning of May, the market has lost about 2 percent, double the German Dax. In addition to the difficult situation in Athens, Moody's decision to put Italy's AaXNUMX rating under review in view of a possible downgrade weighed on it. Today, however, the president of the Eurogroup Juncker declared that Italy is not in danger.
BPM UNDER FIRE DEFENDS ITSELF WITH LEGAL PROBLEMS
DIFFICULT DEBUT FOR THE INCREASE OF MPS
Once again the banking sector led the decline. Once again. We can add the negative protagonist of the day was the Popolare di Milano (-7,39% to 1,628 euros) which almost eliminated the gains achieved on Friday with a leap of about 12%. After the denial of interest by Bnp Bnl, yesterday morning Bper declared that it was not studying "transactions of an extraordinary nature with Popolare di Milano". All this on the eve of a crucial appointment: on 25 June, in fact, the extraordinary shareholders' meeting of the Milanese bank will have to give the go-ahead for the 1,2 billion euro capital increase. In the meantime, the outcry of the internal trade unions also thought about shaking things up, who reiterated that they are against the increase in proxies from 3 to 5 votes, which is one of the indications suggested following pressure from the Banca d Italy for a new governance. Faced with the incoming broadsides against the institute's management systems, the president Massimo Ponzellini abandoned his conciliatory role, moving on to the policy of lawsuits: yesterday the board of directors gave a mandate to proceed against the deputy director of the "Giornale" Nicola Porro and against Luigi Zingales, author of a very harsh indictment in the "Sole 24 Ore" in which he asked for the bank to be placed in receivership.
Sales also on Monte dei Paschi (-2,59% to 0,583 euro) on the first day of the 2,1 billion euro capital increase, which will allow the Sienese bank to repay the 1,9 billion euro Tremonti Bond and strengthen capital ratios in view of the new Basel 3 rules. The issue price of the new shares was set at 0,446 euro and the ratio envisages 18 new shares for every 25 held. The period to subscribe for the rights will end on July 8th. Meanwhile, the information prospectus revealed that the Sienese institute has a 1,08 billion euro dispute underway with the tax authorities in relation to share trading transactions concluded between the dividends and repurchase agreements on foreign bonds. And that Consob has "investigations in progress" on the impairment tests (tests aimed at verifying the loss of lasting value of the goodwill accounted for in the financial statements) carried out by MPS on Biverbanca and Banca Antonveneta. The goodwill relating to the two MPS subsidiaries amounted to 1.624 million. Overall, MPS has goodwill of 6.474 million in its balance sheet, out of a total of intangible assets of 7.539 million. The value represents 43,1% of the consolidated shareholders' equity. The impairment tests carried out on the occasion of the approval of the 2010 financial statements, Mps explains, did not reveal any permanent loss of goodwill "and, consequently, no value adjustments were made". "For the purposes of the analysis - adds the prospectus, however - the stock market price of Bmps was not considered as in the current market condition, penalized by non-structural factors and by the high prospective uncertainty, in the issuer's opinion fully reflects the structural profitability profile and the benefits of the industrial actions implemented"
In the rest of the banking sector, Intesa SanPaolo (-0,82% to 1,804 euros), Unicredit (-2,30% to 1,488 euros) and Banco Popolare (-0,43% to 1,62 euros) also slipped into the red which in the evening announced that it had given the go-ahead for the sale of assets in the Czech Republic, with collection of 48 million and the deconsolidation of one hundred. Ubi Banca, having archived a troubled capital increase ("There's nothing to worry about - declared the chairman of the management board, the former chairman Abi Corrado Faissola -. We still have an excellent underwriting syndicate") showed progress in the 0,76% at 3,99 euros.
Difficult day also for Fonsai (-3,6%). According to Il Messaggero, the banks in the consortium for the capital increase would aim for a 50% discount.
CITI OFFERS THE AUTOGRILL STEW (+2%)
THE MILAN FAIR (+5,3%) CELEBRATES PEACE
Few titles in contrast. Among these Autogrill (+2%) after Citigroup confirmed its Buy judgment this morning, reducing the target price from 12,5 to 12 euros.
"The value created by Autogrill has not been incorporated into the share price," explained the analysts of the US bank. The remedy? A spin-off of the catering business from that of the airports from which a greater value would emerge.
Fiera Milano rose by 5,3% to 4,93 euros, on the wave of the news of the imminent peace between the Milanese company and Aefi, the association of Italian trade fairs. Within the next week Enrico Pazzali CEO of Fiera Milano will meet Ettore Riello, president of Aefi, to define the company's return to the association. The goal is to set up a representative entity of the interests of the sector vis-à-vis the government and the international protection of successful events
EDISON. SAGLIA SAYS YES TO THE FRENCH
“THAT WITH EDF IS A GOOD DEAL”
The cracks in the wall erected by Giulio Tremonti against the agreement reached in March between EDF and A2A which provides for the transfer of control of Edison to the company led by Henry Proglio are widening. Undersecretary for Economic Development Stefano Saglia took sides for the conclusion of the agreement by July and defined the operation which provides for the sale to Italian partners of a package of hydroelectric assets plus a put on 31% of the society. In the event of a lack of agreement, the envelopes will be sent in September, with EDF clearly favored over A2A, given the different capital base.
