The countdown has begun. In thirty days, barring last-minute agreements, the US will raise tariffs for 60 billion dollars against Chinese imports of high technology (robots and high-speed trains) but not only. Beijing's response was not long in coming: this morning China imposed tariffs for three billion dollars on American goods in response to the entry into force of US tariffs on steel imports. "We do not wish for a trade war - reads a note from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Trade - but we are not afraid".
TRUMP PROMOTES BOLTON, ANOTHER HAWK
Even before this move, Donald Trump sent out another bellicose signal by replacing national security adviser McMaster with John Bolton, the hawk of hawks, who theorized the "sacrosanct need" for a pre-emptive strike against North Korea and the cancellation "as quickly as possible" of the Iranian nuclear deal. In this context, even the postponement of duties on steel arriving from the European Union, South Korea and Japan takes on a disturbing tone: Trump, for now, wants to have a free hand to strike his main rival, but claims the right to straighten out trade deficits in a strong way.
TO THE CARPET BOEING AND FACEBOOK
The president's moves had the effect of an elephant raiding the glassware of the markets. Wall Street closed in deep red: Dow Jones -2,93%, S&P 500 -2,52%, Nasdaq -2,43%. Leading the decline are three giants of the exporting industry: Boeing -5,2%, Caterpillar -5,7% and 3M -4,6%. But financial stocks also closed in deep red (-3,7% for the sector index).
The landslide of Facebook (-2,7%) notwithstanding Mark Zuckerberg's "confession". it has infected the entire tech sector (index -2,69%) which fears the arrival of stricter rules and controls, also to the detriment of advertising revenues.
THE DROPBOX IPO AT 21 DOLLARS
However, the news of the offer price of the shares of Dropbox, the data custody giant, goes against the trend. The securities will be placed at 21 dollars (against the forecast of 18-19) after the excellent reception given in the roadshow.
ASIAN LISTS IN DEEP RED
Equally heavy was the reaction of Asian price lists this morning. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index dropped 3,5% a few hours after the closing. Shanghai loses 3,2%. Also in deep red are Hong Kong, Seoul and the Taiwan Stock Exchange, i.e. the most vulnerable markets in the event of a trade war on the Pacific.
The impact was also felt in the foreign exchange and bond markets. The dollar is losing ground against both the yen (104,635 against the dollar, at its lowest since November 2016) and the euro (1,2336).
The race towards "safe havens" is picking up speed: the yield on the 2,792-year T Bond slipped this morning to 2,907% (from XNUMX on Wednesday).
OPEC STROKE SAVE OIL. TENARIS COLLAPSES
Oil also fell, in line with other commodities, especially those linked to the Chinese industrial cycle: copper at 6.640 per ton, at its lowest in three months. But crude oil prices recovered this morning after the confirmation of the extension of OPEC cuts to production until 2019. Brent is trading at 69.50 dollars a barrel (yesterday's low at 68,91 dollars).
Eni (-1,4%) and Saipem (-4%) weak in Piazza Affari. Violent decrease for Tenaris (-6,7%) after South Korea, one of the main competitors in the pipe segment, was exempt from duties.
HOLDING DOWN THE EUROPEAN RECOVERY. TODAY THE WEB TAX
A day of high tension is looming for European markets, already weak yesterday in anticipation of US moves but also due to the slowdown in the economic situation in the EU as measured by the PMI indices and by the Ifo, the confidence barometer of German industry. The proposal for a Web tax on Internet giants will be presented today at the European Council.
In Milan the session closed in deep red: -1,85%, index at 22.397, however the recovery from the day's lows (22.208). The volumes traded are significant; 3,05 billion far above the average for the first three days of the week (2,03 billion).
Not far away were Frankfurt (-1,7%), Paris (-1,38%) and Madrid (-1,49%).
BANK OF ENGLAND, EVIDENCE OF RATES RISING
London -1,23%. The Bank of England confirmed the key rate at 0,50%, but two of the nine members of the monetary policy committee voted surprisingly for an immediate monetary tightening, a move that will increase investor conviction on a cost hike some money in May.
WHAT TO THE BUNDS, 6 BILLION BOTS AT AUCTION
The climate reduces the propensity for risk and favors the rush to safe havens. Under pressure from the Bund, a traditional refuge in times of tension, the spread widened to 127 points even though the yield on the ten-year BTP fell to 1,8%.
During the placement at the end of the month, next Tuesday 27 March, the Ministry of the Economy will make 6 billion euro of six-month BOTs available to investors, against maturing securities of the same amount. Tonight the Treasury will communicate the amount of medium-long term bonds at auction next Wednesday.
The ECB bulletin, published yesterday, reiterates that the institute intends "to conduct net purchases, at the current monthly rate of 30 billion euros, until the end of September 2018, or even further if necessary, and in any case until it finds a lasting adjustment of the evolution of prices consistent with its inflation target”.
TELECOM, BATTGALIA TO THE LAST VOTE ON MAY 4TH
No sector was saved from the downward pressure yesterday.
Limit the damage Telecom Italia (-1,1%), pending the pitched battle between the shareholder Vivendi and the funds that are siding with the challenger Elliott, which, according to the latest communications, holds 3,75% of the capital in common stock plus an additional 1,99% through a long position with cash settlement (Synthetic equity swap).
The board of directors of the company convened yesterday for May 4 the assembly of the company for the complete renewal of the board. During the board meeting, the executive chairman Arnaud de Puyfontaine resigned, and with him six other directors nominated by Vivendi. Even the vice president with responsibility for safety Giuseppe Recchi resigned with immediate effect. The board replaced him, in the role and in the security delegation, with the councilor Franco Bernabè.
UILITY, GOOD ACCOUNTS BUT ENEL AND TERNA SUFFER
Stormy weather also for utilities, despite the indications coming from Terna and Enel's accounts, announced with the stock exchange closed.
Terna (-3,6%) expects an average annual growth of net profit of 3% over the course of plan to 2022, the announcement is from this morning. Average dividend growth of 6% compared to 2017. Total investments at 5,3 billion euros, +30% compared to the previous plan.
Enel (-1,6%) immediately after the closure, the company announced the results. Enel closed 2017 with 2017 consolidated net profit of 3,779 billion (+47%). The company proposes a 2017 dividend of €0,237 per share, up 32% on 2016.
A2A -1,4%, Italgas -2,5%.
BANKS: AT MONTE PASCHI PEAK, FLY POP.SONDRIO
Difficult day for the banks too. Unicredit -2,3%. Ubi Banca (-2,4%) announced that Banking Supervision has authorized the adoption of a new credit assessment model. Bank Bpm -3%.
The abyss of Banca Monte Paschi (-5,5%) does not stop, which has lost a good third of its value since the announcement of the results. Mps denied in a note that it was studying capital increases and confirmed "the objectives indicated in the restructuring plan which allowed it to obtain temporary state aid".
Going against the trend Banca Popolare di Sondrio (+3%), in the aftermath of judgment on the reform of cooperative banks: the Constitutional Court has rejected the appeal presented by the Banca della Valtellina, therefore, it will be forced to change its statute.
FCA SUFFERS, CAMPARI AND MEDIASET ARE HOLDING
The prospect of a trade war knocked out Fiat Chrysler (-5%). Among the worst stocks also Stm (-5,6%). Leonardo -3%.
In the main basket, plus signs only for Mediaset (+0,49%), Campari (+0,49%) and Ynap (+0,05%).
In the rest of the list, a positive note also comes from Fincantieri (+4,94%) thanks to the 'buy' promotion of Banca Akros, optimistic about 2017 accounts and outlook.
