Hillary will become the first female president of the United States of America and this third television duel has further confirmed it, despite Trump's attempts to mend previous media defeats. Never had such a bloody presidential campaign been reached, so much so as to involve foreign policy with mutual accusations between the US and Russia of cyber-espionage. Not to mention a clear tightening of relations between the two countries over the Syrian war, which is making the front of pro-Russian alliances intensify in the aftermath of an Indian meeting of the BRICS which sees the function of the Bank of the BRICS further strengthened, which will also be joined by a new rating agency.
Obviously Team Hillary will see majority female representation but it is on foreign policy and alliances in the Senate that a large part of the game of the first three months of the presidential term is played. Especially taking into account the stalemate on the transatlantic pact with the EU (TTIP), and the non-completion of the Asian one (TPP), as well as the growing alarmism on NATO maneuvers and the reciprocal Russian-US provocations on European territory.
If the Republicans lose their majority in the Senate, as it seems from the polls, the domestic policy and budgetary actions of the new president Clinton will be facilitated. But certainly the Republicans will maintain the majority in the House and therefore the legislative functions will remain conditional in any case. All against the backdrop of a scenario of secular stagnation feared by the International Monetary Fund.
Even if Clinton's diplomatic qualities with Congress may be better than Obama's, the financial markets do not price this situation positively, which remains limiting for Clinton. Moreover, even in the house of Democrats inevitably Sanders will weigh his support, demanding a leftist government agenda closer to its positions. In the light of these considerations, some maneuvering on the fiscal side, extremely urgent and necessary, could be reached with a delicate work of compromise with Paul Ryan, the speaker of the Republicans in the House, but Hillary needs the TPP to be definitively ratified with the Asian countries, otherwise due to the US presence in Asia they will be pains. How Japan has approached Russia says it all.
Clinton's future opponent for 2020, Ted Cruz, is already sharpening its weapons and will certainly be one of the most disruptive and impeding elements of any initiative (or worse mistake) of the new administration, with a Bill Clinton as First Mister. Furthermore it will be necessary for Hillary to prove less tough than expected with Wall Street and ready to mend some positions with sectors such as that medical and pharmaceutical, who paid hard for the electoral clash, against the backdrop of the so-called Obamacare Law (ACA- Affordable Care Act), which still sees 27 million citizens without any medical insurance, and hence the need for an intervention by the new president on the side of subsidies to reduce this number as early as next year.
Clinton, on the other hand, is blamed for excessive weakness and therefore tolerance on burning issues such as the social clashes with the African-American community, the protection of borders, radical Islam and an American model of withdrawal from international theaters of war, which has exposed the United States to fierce criticism especially on the complexity of the Middle Eastern situation. Finally, Clinton is at stake on foreign policy for the first two years of her mandate because pointing the finger at Russia without showing evidence as Obama did can be a strategic move as an outgoing President, but the incumbent certainly cannot afford it. Russia has deployed the most impressive naval force in front of Syria since the twilight of the last cold war and the intensification of geopolitical tensions is the prelude to a further strengthening of the ruble, gold and oil, as well as a step back on the beneficial effects of globalisation.
