“The European Union has taken unfair advantage in trade with us Americans for too many years. But it will end soon!" With this tweet, President Trump officially opened the tariff war with Brussels, inaugurated with the tariffs (11 billion) imposed on imports from Europe in retaliation for aid to Airbus.
The World Trade Organization finds that the European Union subsidies to Airbus has adversely impacted the United States, which will now put Tariffs on $11 Billion of EU products! The EU has taken advantage of the US on trade for many years. It will soon stop!—Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 9 April 2019
The markets welcomed the news with apprehension, which comes even before the agreement announced several times with China, not to mention the dispute with Canada and Mexico. All in a delicate context, characterized by the warning of the Monetary Fund. Therefore, the caution of the Stock Exchanges at the start of a hot day is not surprising, marked among other things by two delicate appointments that see central banks as protagonists: the ECB meeting will be held today, the minutes of the last meeting will be released in the evening of the Fed.
Asian stock exchanges lost ground this morning: Shanghai fell by 0,55%, Hong Kong -0,6%.
However, the stock exchange of the former British colony made a historic overtaking: the capitalization of Hong Kong (5.780 billion dollars) surpassed that of Tokyo (5.760 billion), placing itself in third place among world markets.
The Japanese stock market was held back by the rise of the yen, the safe haven currency par excellence in Asia, traded at 111,48 against the dollar. The euro also recovered positions, to 1,1258 against the US currency.
Bonds benefit from fears about equities: a confirmation comes from the record collection of issues by Aramco, which collected offers for 112 billion dollars and assigned 12.
The Wall Street indices are in the red: Dow Jones -0,72%, S&P %00 -0,61%, Nasdaq -0,56%.
In evidence Facebook (+1,5%), on the wave of Morgan Stanley's promotion for Instagram results. In the crosshairs Microsoft, accused of having collaborated with the Chinese army on the Artificial Intelligence front.
Oil holds back below $71. Oil companies also fell yesterday: Saipem -3,9% and Tenaris -2,67%
IMF: "GLOBAL ECONOMY SLOWS DOWN, ITALY MORE"
“It is a very delicate moment for the global economy”. Words from Gita Gopinath, the new chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, who yesterday updated the estimates of the spring "World economic outlook" downwards: global growth has dropped from the 3,5% expected in October to 3,3% and it won't go beyond 3,6% in 2020. "We don't expect a recession," added the economist. Little consolation, also because the signs of recovery, which are there, only underline the structural problems of advanced economies. There will be a rebound in the second half of the year, but only thanks to the Emerging Countries (+ 4,4% this year, + 4,8% in 2020) and not the advanced Countries, which, according to the Fund, will not they will go over 2020 (+1,6% in the USA). Not only. The trend is destined to accentuate, partly due to the aging of the population and partly because, warns the IMF, automation and digital "will favor consumers but the impact on productivity will be modest". Structural issues that add to the conflicts on tariffs unleashed by Trump also towards Europe.
THE DEF CUTS THE BEL PAESE'S GROWTH TO 0,2%.
Without forgetting Italy which, waiting for the flat tax, discovers flat growth: yesterday the government set a "growth for 2019 equal to 0,2%" in the Economics and Finance Document, in which "no new tax and no corrective measures" are envisaged. A difficult squaring of the circle, in short. The debt public is seen to deteriorate to 132,7% of GDP (from 132,2% in 2018) due to “low nominal growth” and “relatively high real returns”. Even the deficit/GDP worsens, returning to 2,4% which had been blocked by the European Commission at the time of the Maneuver.
THE UNION GRANTS AN EXTENSION IN LONDON
With a view to a field day (not to forget the auctions of government securities not only in Italy) the markets of the Old Continent experienced a cautious session yesterday, with a hopeful ending.
In response to British Prime Minister Theresa May's request, “the European Council agrees on an extension to allow the ratification of the Divorce Agreement”, reads the draft conclusions of the extraordinary summit on Brexit. "If the agreement is ratified before the date", the separation "will take place on the first day of the following month", continues the text. In the document, however, there is no date for the maximum extension, since it is a decision that the leaders of the 27 countries of the community will have to take today.
Piazza Affari closed the session down by 0,46%, 21.671 basis points, after having touched a new annual high of 21.900 points before the Fund's report.
Frankfurt loses 0,92%; Paris -0,65%; Madrid -0,3%; London -0,36%. Zurich (+0,2%) goes against the trend.
THE YIELD OF THE BTP 10 AT THE LOWEST FOR 10 MONTHS
Italian paper closed with a plus sign awaiting the mid-month auctions: an apparently surprising result if one looks at the state of the public finances. But the hunt for yields continues in the hope of again accommodating signals coming from Mario Draghi's press conference.
In closing, the spread narrowed to 244 basis points, from 249 on the previous day.
The ten-year rate stands at 2,43% (at its lowest for ten months) from 2,49% at the previous close.
This morning the Treasury is offering 6 billion 12-month BOTs (6 billion maturing): on the gray market, the security traded at around 0,08% compared to 0,06% in the mid-March auction.
Tomorrow will be the turn of the mid-month medium and long-term auction, in which between 6,25 and 7,75 billion euros in Btp will be available to investors, with the debut of the new 7-year bond, which will detach a coupon of 2,1% (against 2,5% of the current benchmark) and the reopening of 3 and 15 year terms.
THE BANKS ARE HOLDING, NEW MAXIMUM FOR POSTAL
Banks held onto a small gain at the end of a mixed session. Brilliant Bank Bpm (+1%. Understanding + 0,2% Unicredit + 0,27%.
New increase of Italian post (+0,36%), promoted on Monday by Deutsche Bank with a target of 10 euros. The stock touched a new all-time high in the course of at 9,07 euros.
Achievements on asset management: Anima -1,7% FinecoBank -0,7% Azimuth + 0,1 %
DUTIES HOLD LEONARDO, SCOTTISH SHOWER FOR PRYSMIAN
Down Fiat Chrysler (-1,1%), which settled for 110 million dollars to resolve a dispute over misleading information to investors on diesel and the failure to comply with American regulations.
Cnh Industrial it dropped 1,47%. Yesterday the CEO said that Iveco, periodically at the center of speculation about a possible sale, "remains core for the group, but the strategy is being reviewed".
Among industrialists, heavy Leonardo (-2%) on fears of US duties on helicopters.
Very heavy Prysmian (-5%), the worst blue chip. The company has announced that some tests on the WesternLink link between Scotland and Wales have triggered the protection system, putting the infrastructure out of service. It's not the first time this has happened.
TIM, THE NEW BOND SNOBES THE RATING
Telecom Italy +0,24%. The spread between ordinary and savings shares has reached a new all-time low below 4 cents. The company placed a six-year euro bond worth 1 billion at 2,875, just two days after Fitch's downgrade that stripped the former monopolist of the latest 'investment grade' rating from major agencies.
TECHNOGYM -4,4% AFTER PLACEMENT
Out of the main list, Technogym (-4,43%) adjusted to the accelerated bookbuilding price, 10,30 euro, through which the majority shareholder, Wellness Holding, sold a 6,96% stake.
Male Salini Impregilo (-4,2%) victim of profit taking. Shopping continues Molmed (+ 6,9%).
