The cold shower coming from Standard & Poor's has slowed the rise of European lists, already orphaned by Wall Street, closed today for holidays: Milan falls by 0,2%, the CAC is down by 0,1%, the Footsie rises (+0,56%) and Frankfurt (+0,32%). In the morning, a note from the rating agency warned that a Greek bailout involving the rollover of Greek treasuries, as envisaged by the association of French banks, warns the rating agency, would be considered as a ' selective default'.
"We are of the opinion - writes the rating agency - that both financing options described in the proposal would probably amount, according to our criteria, to a default".
Among the largest holders of Greek Treasury securities, French lenders have proposed the voluntary rollover of some maturing bonds, which would be replaced by securities with a different structure. Germany then insists on the participation of banks and insurance companies in any new bailout plan, the value of which would amount to around 120 billion in new funds until the end of 2014. The fact remains, comments Monumenti Securities analyst Marc Ostwald, that "the breath of relief the market enjoyed last week thanks to the vote [for the measures] is somewhat overshadowed by the S&P announcement".
It is a delicate comparison, which goes beyond the Greek test, underlined the CEO of Banca Intesa, Corrado Passera. “The rating agencies are a big problem – he declared. – The bank can never renounce, in granting credit, the judgment of a third party. The rating agencies have performed poorly in preventing the crisis. Now that they're burned, they overreact." Responding to those who asked him whether or not regulation of the rating agencies was necessary, Passera explained that “it is difficult to intervene legally and legally. Public opinion, the media and businesses need to be more selective”.
On the merits of the Greek match, the banker underlined that “the French proposal is a very interesting starting point. We need to find adjustments that make it acceptable to the rating agencies”, avoiding that it is equated to a default.
FINANCE STERILIZES MAXIMUM PAYMENTS
A DONUT FOR FININVEST AGAINST CIR
According to what emerges from the "Il Sole 24 Ore" website, the Finance Bill contains the novelty that the judge could be forced to "freeze" compensation exceeding 10 million (in the first instance) and 20 (in the second) up to to the pronouncement of the next level of judgment (appeal or Cassation)
Once in force, it will be Fininvest who will be able to benefit from the novelty, which is currently awaiting the appeal ruling in the Mondadori Lodo case. In the first instance, Fininvest was ordered to pay the De Benedetti group 750 million euros in compensation for the damage suffered due to corruption in the legal case which ended with the assignment. Mediaset rises by 1,23%.
THE BULGARIANS AND TRAPANI PASS INTO THE COLLECTION: 2,6 BILLION EUROS
PRADA ALSO MAKES CASH WITH THE GREEN SHOE: $321 MLO
Yesterday the final word was given to the Bulgari operation. In fact, the details of the sales of Francesco Trapani and Nicola and Paolo Bulgari appeared in the "insider dealing" communications. Trapani sold 14.404.899 to Lvmh for a consideration of 175 million and 460 thousand euros. Nicola Bulgari sold 75.040.082 shares for 919.241.004 euros. Finally, Paolo Bulgari collected €942,482.745 against 78.937.367 titles. All sales took place at the unit value of 12,25 euros, as set in the takeover bid.
Prada raises 2,5 billion Hong Kong dollars, about 321 million additional dollars through the exercise of the 'greenshoe', as part of the placement of the title of the fashion house on the Asian stock market. The company has announced that its 'bookrunners' have exercised the subscription option for another 2,5% of the capital, which brings down the stake of the parent company Prada Holding BV to 80% of the shares. Prada raised $2,14 billion through its IPO, which saw the stock price at the low end of its indicated range
ATHENS IS ALREADY DONE FOR BOOKMAKERS
BUT ITALY IS NOT AT A DEFAULT RISK
First Greece and then Venezuela, this is the forecast of international bookmakers on the subject of financial default.
According to the Stan James stockists, as reported by Agipronews, Greece's bankruptcy declaration is the most probable and is played at 1,72, while for Venezuela the proposal is equal to 4,00.
According to the analysts of the American fund Blackrock, Italy is also at risk, but the odds at the moment exclude this possibility, with our country not even present on the betting board. Ireland and Portugal follow the two favourites, but for them the odds are already significantly higher: they are worth 15 against 1, even less than the USA, so the risk of default is set at 10,00 and drops to 2,50 if occurred by 2015.
These are the odds for bettors. Meanwhile, the yield on the Greek government bond with a two-year maturity, the security most sensitive to bankruptcy hypotheses, fell by 50 basis points to 24,24%: 15 days ago it had arrived close to 30%. The yield of the Italian BTP rises by 4 basis points to 4,90%.
WALL STREET ON HOLIDAY, EUROPEAN EXCHANGES DOWN
THE TIME OF THE COLLECTION OF MPS, UBI AND POPOLARE
The Ftse Mib falls by 0,2%. Among the other European markets, the Dax of Frankfurt (+0,32%) and the Ftse 100 of London (+0,46%) advance while the Cac 40 of Paris falls (-0,11%). All in all, a flat day in the absence of orders from Wall Street, stopped for Independence Day.
To balance the effect S&P's have tried Nomura and Deutsche Bank whose reports promote the European stock market. The Japanese broker, in particular, recommends increasing the weight on Europe and lightening the exposure to Wall Street.
Day of report cards for the banking system of our house. Société Générale reduced the target price on Unicredit (-1,42% to 1,5150 euros) from 2,2 to 1,9 euros, confirming the buy recommendation while it promoted B.Mps (+4,78% to 0,5810. 0,9) by raising the rating from hold to buy while limiting the target price from 0,75 to 2,25 euro. Banca Akros, on the other hand, reduced the target price to 2,9 from 2,91 euro of B.Popolare (+XNUMX) and raised the rating to buy from accumulated as analysts' expectations were confirmed by the recent presentation of the industrial plan .
On Ubi B. (+4,42) Ubs cut its target price from 6,1 to 4,4 euro, confirming its neutral rating. Ubi Banca itself announced in a note that today all the 53.154.927 option rights not exercised as part of the offer relating to the capital increase were sold. The rights may be used to subscribe for 20.249.496 UBI shares. Meanwhile, BPMilano's earnings increased (+1,82%) while Intesa Sanpaolo (-0,63%) and Mediobanca (-1,04%) continued to decline.
Generali ends up in the red (-0,67%), whose target price was reduced from 18 to 16 euros by HSBC. Meanwhile, despite the postponement of the introduction of Solvency 2, the results of the tests conducted by the EIOPA (European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority) on the stability of the system are arriving. Only about 10% of European companies do not reach the sufficiency in the macro worst-case scenario hypothesis. On the other hand, 8% would fail the test in the event of a price shock while 5% would fail in the event of a sovereign shock.
FINANCIAL: HEAVY TOLLS FOR ATLANTIA AND SIAS
YELLOW ON RENEWABLES, HIT ON THE SECURITIES DOSSIER
The text of the maneuver sent to the Quirinale for the signature of the head of state restores the cut to 30% of the incentives contained in electricity and gas bills, state the agencies. Before a sharp denial coming from the minister Paolo Romani, contrary to the request made by the League. The IRAP surtax on banks, insurance companies and financial companies is instead confirmed. On the other hand, the stamp duty on securities dossiers, which will be borne by savers and investors, changes. If the figure of 120 euros per year is confirmed immediately, things will change starting from 2013. From that moment on, sums of less than 50.000 euros will be subject to 150 euros, from 50.000 upwards to 380 euros.
The tightening of the ceiling on tax depreciation of assets under concession contained in the latest version of the financial maneuver is "more penalizing than expected", comments a trader in the face of the reduction, from 2 to 1%, of the ceiling on tax depreciation assets under concession. Atlantia sells 5,23%, with volumes well above the daily average. Sias yields 4,25% to 7,26 euros. Autostrada To-Mila dropped 2,1% at 9,6 euros. It keeps
THE TIMEDIA AFFAIR WEIGHTS ON THE ESPRESSO
MEDIUM CAP: THE DRUM STAR SHINES
Weak Telecom I. (-0,68% to 0,9505 euro) on which Ubs reduced the target price from 1,25 to 1,2 euro and confirmed the buy recommendation. The news from the Financial Times weighs heavily on the EU's intention to intervene with the ax on the international roaming tariffs applied by European telecoms.
Meanwhile, the market links the fortunes of the subsidiary Timedia to L'Espresso (-4,01% to 1,77 euro) downgraded by Bank of America. According to CorrierEconomia, the television company targeted by the De Benedetti group could be valued at 400 million euros, including debt.
Ten days ago, the managing director of Telecom Italia, Franco Bernabè, said that Telecom Italia Media is for sale: an exploratory assignment on the enhancement of the company has been given to Mediobanca. The day before, the CEO of Telecom Italia Media, Giovanni Stella, had revealed the existence of advanced negotiations on the entry into the capital of a new shareholder. On the rest of the Tamburi price list, it rises by 0,47% to 1,49 euros. On the share, Equita raised the target price to 1,94 euro from 1,92 euro after the first exercise period of the 2010-2013 warrants ended.
SEAT SEES THE GOAL OF SALVATION
DI BENEDETTO ONE STEP FROM ROME
Strong increase Seat which, after a strong upward push, yesterday published a note in which it specifies that it has formalized with the Royal Bank of Scotland (Rbs) an amendment to the contract "of a technical nature with the aim of allowing the part of the company in discussions with its financial creditors (other than RBS.) According to rumors, the banks (RBS, Unicredit and BNP Paribas) have given the company the “release” to negotiate debt restructuring.
"It's the last administrative step, we're finally here, after which everything goes to Thomas DiBenedetto". Federico Ghizzoni, CEO of Unicredit, thus minimized the "temporary appointments" in the board of directors of the Giallorossi club of Roberto Cappelli, Unicredit's lawyer, as president and Claudio Fenucci, as new operating director of As Roma, as managing director. Ghizzoni, however, specified that these are "temporary appointments". Speaking of the possible date for the closing of the sale of the yellow and red club, Ghizzoni replies: "the Board of Directors is here today, no closing was foreseen for today, but it will arrive by July".
