“Last call for Athens”. It is the title of the script (with an open ending) that the financial markets will have to interpret until late in the evening, awaiting the confrontation between the heads of state of the euro area and Alexis Tsipras. At stake, Wolfgang Munchau writes in the Financial Times, is not only the future of Greece, but the very survival of the Eurozone.
A high-voltage day marked by rumors and statements by leaders, officials, Sherpas, in which macro news (the definitive US GDP figure for the first quarter, arriving in a few days) will fade into the background, corporate issues but also other geopolitical dossiers of great importance, starting with the resumption of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear power to be concluded in one direction or another, by 30 June: a key step for the oil markets.
The day starts on a positive note in Asia. The Tokyo Stock Exchange rises around a certain percentage, Hong Kong also rises +0,4%. In evidence Fosun, the Chinese financial holding company which has acquired an Israeli insurance company, Phoenix International, which joins the other operations of recent months (Club Med, Cirque du Soleil and Thomas Cook travel) and the next deal on the Portuguese Novo Banco. Chinese price lists closed for holidays.
HERE COMES THE LAST PROPOSAL OF TSIPRAS. JUNCKER: IT'S A GOOD FOUNDATION
The longest day for Greece (and the eurozone) got underway even before the stock exchanges opened. At 8, in fact, the member of the ECB directorate Benoit Coeuré gives a particularly awaited speech after Thursday's gaffe, when Coeuré himself, replying to an EU official, said: “Greek banks are open tomorrow. I don't know on Monday."
Today, the institutions of Athens represent the most vulnerable trench of the crisis: the pre-orders for the withdrawal of deposits for Monday reached one billion euros last Friday. Last week, savers withdrew over 4 billion euros from their banks. The ECB, the system's only source of supply, has already lent over 86 billion euros. This morning the Frankfurt bank will meet to decide on new loans: perhaps the last if there is no agreement, difficult but necessary.
On the eve of the decisive round, Greece flaunts optimism: "The Government has developed a proposal of common convenience", reads a note issued by Athens after a conference call with Angela Merkel, François Hollande and Jean-Claude Juncker, according to the which “this is a good basis for an agreement”.
In reality, the two leaders reiterated to Tsipras that, before the "political" summit at 19 pm, it will be necessary to find an agreement in the "technical" session on the new Greek proposals, including, it seems, a softer position on early retirements.
MILAN +19,4% SINCE JANUARY. NASDAQ AT THE HIGHEST
The financial markets have so far displayed great calm in the face of the evolution of the crisis. Piazza Affari closes the week with a drop of 0,7% which reduces the performance from the beginning of the year to 19,4%, which however remains the most brilliant in Europe ahead of Frankfurt and Paris (+11%) and Madrid (+5 %).
The Athens Stock Exchange makes its own story: -20% since the beginning of the year. The stock market rose by 0,5% on Friday. The overall stock exchange index of the Old Continent fell by 0,9% at the end of the last five sessions. More music on Wall Street. The US stocks archived their best session since April starting with the Nasdaq which reached a new record at 5.143 points.
Billionaire IPOs, such as that of Fitbit, are making a comeback. In the limelight, in the insurance sector, Anthem's offer (47 billion dollars) on Cigna returned to the sender because it was considered "very disappointing".
BTP, BONOS AND BUND: 385 BILLION IN SMOKE SINCE APRIL
The Greek crisis has hit the debt market. In the last two months, the total value of the stock of government bonds in the Eurozone has fallen by 385 billion to 5-600 billion. The yields of Italian securities returned to the levels of last November, nullifying the effect of quantitative easing. Things went worse for the Spanish Bonos, who returned to September prices.
The BTP closed Friday with a yield of 2,27%. In the meantime, the month-end auctions are approaching. Thursday will be the turn of BTPs indexed to the euro, Friday of six-month BOTs and CTZs. Finally, Monday 29 will close with medium-long term securities.
RAIN OF DIVIDENDS, INWIT AT DEBUT
A day full of dividends for Piazza Affari. The following coupons are detached: A2A (0,0363 euro); Enel (0,14); Exor (0,35); Triad (0,13); Telecom Italia resp (0,0275); Unipolsai (0,175); Unipolsai vs. (6,5); Unipolsai resp b (0,20438); Acea (0,45); Hera (0,09); Irene (0,0523); Italmobiliare (0,25); Italmobiliare resp (0,39); Unipol (0,17); Unipol priv (0,19); Mc-link (0,06 euros).
The Inwit stock makes its debut at Piazza Affari. The placement price of the transmission tower company controlled by Telecom Italia was 3,65 euros for a total valuation of 2,19 billion, equal to 16,2 times the pro forma Ebitda ratio of 2014. A higher valuation of competitors which is justified by the extension of the network throughout the national territory, the low debt (120 million) and the high profitability (135 of ebitda on revenues for 314 million).
OVS enters the Ftse Italia Mid Cap Index in place of Cofide.
THE POPULAR MONEY. THE INTESA-UNICRADIT-KKR AXIS AT THE START
Once again the banks will be at the center of market interest. In the spotlight are the Popolari banks which sold 85.79% of Icpbi to a consortium of private companies including Bain, Advent and Clessidra for a total valuation of 2.15 billion. The banks involved are, among others, Credito Valtellinese (20,4% shareholder), Banco Popolare (14,6%), Bper (10,6%), Ubi (5%) and Bpm (5%).
While waiting for the longed-for tax measures, announced a thousand times, the companies promoted by Intesa and Unicredit are starting up together with KKR and Alvarez & Marshall for the treatment of stranded loans. There will be two newco, controlled by US partners who will control a vehicle in which to merge, in the form of bonds, the exposures of Intesa and Unicredit in companies with concrete possibilities of relaunching. Among the names involved in the first tests: Alfapak, Comital, Saiag, Burgo Ferroli and Riello.
The capital increase of Banca Carige will close during the week. Generali Investment communicated the possession of a 5,122% stake.
BUSINESS PLACE MEASURES THE NEW CDP
The turnaround in Cassa Depositi e Prestiti is destined to produce profound effects in Piazza Affari. Among these:
1) The spotlights are on Telecom Italia. Andrea Guerra, Matteo Renzi's adviser who is more focused on the broadband dossier, dismissed the connection between the replacement of Franco Bassanini (who remains president of Metroweb) and the intention to join Telecom Italia as "imaginative", but underlined that the CDP may have "investments in strategic companies" by statute. All this just a few days after Vivendi's debut as a shareholder of the former incumbent of the telecommunications companies.
2) The "new" mission of CDP and its subsidiary Fondo Strategico Italiano could also affect the sale to the company led by Maurizio Tamagni in Saipem, with a 20% stake, perhaps thanks to a capital increase.
3) Another test will be the purchase of the share in Stm controlled by the Treasury. In this case it is the Foundations that are perplexed in the face of a strategic investment but with a volatile profitability.
FCA, GIULIA'S WEEK
Another hot topic will be Fiat Chrysler: on Wednesday 24, the curtain will rise at the Alfa historical museum in Arese on the Giulia, the first of the eight Alfas to which Marchionne attributes the most important role in raising the group's profitability. But the market is watching closely the news that could arrive from the USA where the pressure on GM continues.
