It will not be completed by the September 30 deadline, but the sale of the Good banks, which today was the focus of a meeting of the Supervisory board of the ECB, has a good chance of going through in very short extra time.
The fact that Ubi's stock today lost 2,78% to 1,995 euros in Piazza Affari and was the worst of the banks on the Ftse Mib is an indication that the negotiations between the Lombard institution and the Bank of Italy (accompanied by the president of the banks under resolution, Roberto Nicastro) for the sale of three of the four Good banks is now in the final stages.
The bank headed by Victor Massiah effectively submitted a global offer to the resolution authority for the purchase of Banca Etruria, Banca Marche and CariChieti prompting both Bper (which was interested in Banca Etruria) and Popolare di Bari (which had sent a non-binding offer for CariChieti) to remain on standby.
On the other hand, the very cautious Massiah had admitted in recent days that his institute would have done something in the shopping of the Good banks as long as the acquisition served to create value. From this point of view it will be essential to understand how the negotiation will resolve the problem of Npl accumulated by the three banks restored during 2016 and the other problem relating to personnel requirements.
However, by buying Banca delle Marche, Ubi will have to solve an additional Antitrust problem, having already been present for years in the Region with the Popolare di Ancona, where in the meantime the headquarters of the Ubi group for the South has moved. The CEO will therefore have to avoid overlaps and probably sell assets and branches in the Marches to respect the market parameters set by the Antitrust in agreement with Bank of Italy.
If the Ubi operation, on which the moral suasion of via Nazionale was exercised, goes through, only Carife among the four Good banks will remain temporarily unsold, but President Nicastro will be able to say that he has completed his mission in record time .
