More than a crisis. Gianni Tamburi, investment banker rather than financier, closes another golden year, embellished in the finale by Moncler down jackets. Once again Tip, which stands for Tamburi Investment Partners, was able to bet on a talented entrepreneur in time, repeating with Remo Ruffini, the protagonist of the relaunch of the brand, the pattern followed with many other champions of Made in Italy, by Valerio Battista by Prysmian, Datalogic, Interpump and so on: to strengthen the entrepreneur with a winning business idea with an injection of capital.
And so, before Moncler's IPO, Tip acquired 14% of Ruffini Partecipazioni: probably the operation of the year given the outcome of the listing. But other dossiers are already ready on the table, for a 2014 that promises success. As always, because the crisis, seen from the deck of the Tip, is over. In fact, there never was.
“There isn't a single businessman I know – he blurts out – who wastes time with the problems that fill the newspapers. The real problems are others. As well as the opportunities”. It is an old workhorse of the creator of the living room of the fourth capitalism: under the veneer of a blocked system, Italy has a formidable vitality.
Just know how to look: companies with good exposure to international trade, equipped with a winning business model and, no less important, led by capable and well-experienced shareholders (or managers), are not lacking. Put like this it seems easy. And, all in all, a bit boring.
Does it really change nothing?
"Of course. Everything has changed”.
In what sense?
“Globalisation, as we knew it ten years ago, is now an exhausted phenomenon. China, which used to be the destination for all companies on the planet, has become too expensive to produce. Not only for labor costs but also for bureaucracy and environmental impact”.
So, goodbye globalization…
“No, if anything, he has shed his skin. The companies are moving towards the West to produce: a lot in the States, a part in Eastern Europe. We return to the West but with the aim of growing all over the world. Indeed, it is not correct to speak of a return. It is a new capitalism that moves towards countries that have known how to shed their skin”.
Which?
“The model is undoubtedly America. The US has made a formidable change: today it has competitive labor costs, a streamlined bureaucracy that places itself at the service of those offering jobs. It is a leader in technology and outlet markets. Last but not least, it is again the energy powerhouse of the planet”.
What consequences can it have for Europe?
"Simple. To be competitive we must adapt to a model that is very far from the rituals of the old economy. An example? The job, if you look for it, you will find it. But you have to adapt, if there's nothing better, to a Mc Donald's, hoping to improve. Germany is already on this path: the recovery of employment depends on mini jobs, not on BMW's wages. The same goes for Spain which has adopted a flexible working reform. The job is just one example. The same goes for credit, which in the past, in Italy, was badly allocated to investments that were worse than questionable. A process of adjustment of economic balances and not only is underway, which is necessary if we want to return to healthy growth”.
America is already recovering, as evidenced by the tapering and the recovery of the GDP. Is that it?
“I think Ben Bernanke hesitated too long. The cut, however modest, to purchases had to be made as early as September. But the uncertainty of the federal budget weighed. In any case, the path seems to me well defined: a series of cuts in other purchases until QE is eliminated, I think in the first months of 2015. Rates will remain low, for another couple of years. It is the ideal situation for an M&A season: low interest rates, slow but constant growth, predictable monetary variables”.
Better the stock exchanges than the bonds then?
"I think so. But I don't think Wall Street has much room to go up after this year's rally. I believe the index cannot grow more than 10-15 percent. The best potential is in Southern Europe”.
Better Italy or Spain?
“I am convinced that we would do very well to imitate some Spanish reforms. I have already spoken of employment contracts, but I am also thinking of property incentives. Or in favor of foreign investment”.
One last thing: did you expect the Moncler boom?
"Yes, even if, as always, reality surpasses imagination."
But will the rush of luxury end in a bubble?
"I do not think so. Luxury, in the world, is represented by no more than 150 companies that serve an audience of the rich or aspiring, of one billion people. There is room for growth”.
Is there still something under luxury? Or has the Italy that produces taken flight?
“There are many good companies, even if the newspapers don't notice it”.
Small companies…
"Not only. 2014 could be the year of Fiat”.
