The fears of the market on theZew index they were founded. After a series of steady declines since last January, the thermometer measuring investor confidence in Germany fell -3,6 points this month, from 6,9 points in September. This is the first negative value since November 2012. The index that measures current conditions is also down, down to 3,2 points from 25,4 last month. Both figures are lower than market expectations, by 1 and 18 points respectively.
The data had a negative impact on the performance of the Stock Exchanges at the end of the morning: Milano -1,1% Frankfurt -0,8% Paris -0,9% Madrid -1% and London -0,7%.
The increasingly negative trend in confidence, mirroring the German slowdown especially in terms ofindustry and export, the finance minister is cornering Wolfgang Schaeuble, penalty taker of the first hour.
Always opposed to any expansionary policy that questions the rigidity of budgetary discipline, Schaeuble had to admit from Washington, where he followed the meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, that budgetary policy "must move towards investments" to respond to the blows of stagnation.
Indeed, now the recession it is around the corner for Germany as well and the data for the third quarter (after -0,2% in the April-June 2014 period) could certify it. The 2014 growth estimate was cut from +1,9 to +1,3%. For 2015, on the other hand, a +1,2% is still forecast.
