A small positive signal from Asia greets the recovery after the holiday break. Chinese import/export data for March are less negative than feared: -6,6% for exports, against the forecast of -14%, -0,9% for imports, supported by purchases of food goods. But the reasons for optimism end there. The markets, after cashing in without particular euphoria the oil deal which probably averted the worst, they set out to deal with the disasters of the epidemic which does not loosen its grip. The desire to restart is growing almost everywhere, but a heavy bill hangs over the fate of the price lists: the numbers of JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, due out in the afternoon, will give a first measure of the damage caused by the coronavirus.
Chinese price lists rise cautiously. Shanghai +0,9%, Hong Kong, closed yesterday, +0,7%. Tokyo and the Korean Kospi also advanced, both up 1%. Australia was also positive (+0,8%).
ONLY AMAZON FLY TO WALL STREET
US stock market futures also signal a positive start after yesterday's uncertainties. Wall Street, which opened yesterday, experienced a mixed session, dominated by concerns both for the peaks recorded by the epidemic in the US and for the far from exciting prospects for corporate balance sheets. The Dow Jones lost 1,39%, S&P 500 -1,01%. However, the Nasdaq rises (+0,48%), thanks to the boost ensured by Amazon (+6,2%), one of the few winners of this unfortunate season: Jeff Bezos' company, overwhelmed by the home delivery boom, has announced the hiring of 72 new employees.
Along the list of losers, starting with the shipping companies. Ford also lost ground (-3,2%) which announced losses in the quarter of 600 million dollars.
CORPORATIONS CUT DIVIDENDS AND BUY BACKS
The US quarterly season opens in a climate of great uncertainty. So far, 13 S&P 500 companies have reduced or suspended their dividend. According to Goldman Sachs (which will announce the results tomorrow), Wall Street's coupons will drop by 25%. The data on buybacks is even worse: only 371 billion dollars against 806 a year ago.
OIL RISES BUT NOT TOO MUCH AFTER THE AGREEMENT
The effect of the Easter deal on oil, reached after overcoming the hostility of Mexico, was short-lived: the initial rebound, driven by the cuts by all 24 producing countries, not just Opec, was followed by a decline caused by the lack of confidence in the recovery of consumption. This morning Brent, recovering, traded at 31,72 dollars, Wti at 22,74 dollars, both slightly up.
GOLD SHINES TO THE HIGHEST SINCE 2013
The market continues to reward gold, which operators are more eager than ever: the yellow metal traded this morning at 1.715 dollars an ounce, the highest since 2013.
The largest gold ETF fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, now holds 1.009 tonnes of gold, the most since June 2013.
The euro appreciated slightly to 1,094 (+0,3%), from -0,3% at Friday's close.
REOPENING TESTS IN ITALY, STILL DISPUTES ABOUT THE MONTH
There are 1.363 new cases of coronavirus in Italy, down from nearly two thousand on Monday. ICU admissions decrease for the tenth day in a row. But the dead exceed twenty thousand and the infections are 159.516, with Lombardy going against the trend: sick people and deaths are increasing.
The government is evaluating the reopening of some parts of the fashion, automotive and metallurgy supply chains from next week.
In Europe, awaiting the premiers' meeting which next week will have to decide the quantity and modalities of the new intervention fund proposed by France, the data on inflation and on the trend of industrial production will arrive during the week, in any case in deep red.
TODAY THE IMF DIAGNOSIS, ARGENTINA TOWARDS DEFAULT
The outlook of the International Monetary Fund will be released today. By teleconference, the chief economist Gita Gopinath will take stock of the slowdown in economies, now the most serious since 29. The talks between the big names will continue with the G20 summit: a moratorium of at least six months is probable for the debts of most of the emerging countries.
It seems almost obvious that Argentina, for the ninth time in less than a century, is about to default.
US BEIGE BOOK DURING THE WEEK, CHINESE GDP ON FRIDAY
Important signals also from other leading economies. The Fed will release the Beige Book tomorrow, while the US releases data on new jobless claims on Thursday.
The most awaited data of the week, however, concerns China. The gross domestic product trend for the first quarter will be published on Friday, i.e. the first official number on the severity of the crisis in the country which was the first to be hit by the pandemic. For the first time in its history, the People's Republic could end the quarter with a negative figure.
STOCK EXCHANGE TEST FOR THE LION, TAVARES ASCLETS ON FCA
To follow in Piazza Affari the reaction of the markets to the decision of Generali which confirmed the dividend on Friday of 0,96 euros per share, albeit divided into two tranches: one equal to 0,50 euros per share payable in May and one equal to 0,46 euros per share payable by the end of the year, subject to board verification of the existence of capital requirements and regulatory. Spotlights also on Fiat Chrysler: the working groups for the FCA-PSA operation are accelerating operations to carry out the merger, despite the coronavirus. The CEO of Peugot, Carlos Tavares, said so in an internal memo.
