Six months ago, a supply of natural gas cost 18 euros for one megawatt per hour. Yesterday the quotation for delivery in November reached 117,5 euros, with a leap of 23% in a single day, the equivalent of 200 dollars for a barrel of oil. And the situation risks getting worse: the CEO of Gunvor, a commodity giant very close to the Kremlin, declared that "there are no reserves available in the short term". Vladimir Putin, called upon by Ursula von der Leyen for an increase in supplies, froze Brussels arguing that the crisis is the result of "hysteria and confusion", or the result of the decline in Western investments in fossil energy to make way for renewables in tight deadlines. The result, combined with OPEC+'s decision not to accelerate supplies of crude oil, sharply froze tonight the mood of stock lists, invested, waiting for the tapering, by the increase in market rates.
T-BONDS UP 1,55%, FUTURES DOWN
Ten-year US Treasury bonds moved close to the maximum for the period at 1,55%, from 1,53% at the end. The thirty-year bond is on June levels, at 2,12%. The consequences? This morning, US index futures are down by half a point, with a robust reversal of the trends that emerged in yesterday's session. The Nasdaq rallied 1,25% on the rally in tech stocks. Facebook also recovers (+2,1%) afterwards the down, despite dramatic allegations in Congress launched by former employee Frances Haugen. The S&P (+1,05%) and the Dow Jones (+0,95%) also recovered.
TOKYO LOSES, MUMBAI RESISTS
Sitting in the red for Asian stocks, awaiting the reopening of Chinese markets on Friday. The Bloomberg Asia Pacific index lost 1%, to 1.244 points, a level it hasn't seen since March. Tokyo's Nikkei -1,1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0,6%, Seoul's Kospi -1,2%. There are also rising stock markets: Mumbai's BSE Sensex +0,2%, Singapore +0,3%, Jakarta +1,5%.
US security adviser Jack Sullivan and Yang Jiechi, Xi Jingping's right-hand man in foreign policy, meet today in Geneva. At the center of the talks is the attempt to curb the escalation around Taiwan.
NEW ZEALAND RAISES RATES, DOLLAR GOES UP
On the currency market, the most significant movement is that of the New Zealand dollar, up 0,5% after the Central Bank raised interest rates again after seven years warning that this is only the beginning: the trajectory of the inflation should lead to a further cut in monetary stimulus.
The euro dollar is again close to the lows of the last twelve months at 1,158. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index rose for the fourth consecutive day, a new all-time high. Since the depressed levels of March 2020, what was formerly called the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Spot Index has doubled.
OIL AT A SEVEN-YEAR HIGH: $100 RISK
Oil trades at a seven-year high. Texan crude surpasses the $78 barrier. John Driscoll, chief strategist of JTD Energy Services, told CNBC tonight that OPEC +'s very cautious decision on production risks projecting the price of crude oil even above one hundred dollars in the coming months.
RISING YIELDS, BANKS PUSH EUROPE
The air of rate hikes, hot energy prices and the recovery of tech on Wall Street yesterday favored the recovery of European stock markets, driven by the banking boom. The setback by the sovereignists in the Italian elections did the rest, catapulting Piazza Affari to the top of the markets. Perhaps excessive enthusiasm, because the absence of the Lega al Council of Ministers dedicated to tax reform confirms that the road of the executive remains littered with banana peels. Today we will have to deal with the rise in energy prices and tensions on interest rates.
Already yesterday in the final, bonds showed some uncertainty: the spread between Italian and German ten-year bonds was little moved at 105 basis points (+0,46%) but the BTP rate grew to +0,86% (however, even that of the Bund, -0,19%).
OUT OF FIRE AT PIAZZA AFFARI (+1,95%)
Piazza Affari conquered the pink jersey with an increase of 1,95% and remaining one step away from the threshold of 26 points, at 25.956.
Paris is also making a big splash (+1,52%). One of the engines of the increase is Total Energies (+2,99%), included in the conviction list of Oddo securities. The other are the banks: Crédit Agricole +5,67%, Bnp Paribas +4,34%.
REDEEMING CHIPS, INFINEON: INVESTMENTS +50%
The collection of chips instead explains the rise in Amsterdam (+1,85%). Asml advances by 4,14%. Prosus also did well after the authorization to enter the capital of Delivery Hero.
In Frankfurt (+0,95%) a boost to purchases came from the German chipmaker Infineon Technologies (+5%), which will increase investments by about 50% next year in an attempt to benefit from the sharp increase in demand and of the global shortage of semiconductors.
Madrid is supported by the excellent performance of the banking sector: BBVA +6,50%, Banco de Santander +4,6%.
Up also London (+0,95%). British fast-food and bakery chain Greggs rose 7,12% after it revised up its full-year earnings forecast despite staffing and supply chain issues.
BPM WORKS FOR THE THIRD POLO, UNICREDIT RUNS ON MPS
It's the day of banks, insurance companies and oil companies. In the top ten of Piazza Affari, bank stocks occupy four of the top ten positions. The platoon is led by Banco Bpm (+5,62%). The number one in Piazza Meda, Giuseppe Castagna, declared that the Italian market needs another large bank alongside Intesa Sanpaolo (+3,37%) and Unicredit (+4,34%), on which Ubs has raised the target price from 13,55 to 14,45 euros, confirming the buy recommendation. Mps also rises (+2,62%): the negotiations for the transition to Unicredit could be closed by October.
THE BUY BACK COMFORTS THE SOUL
In asset management, Fineco advanced by (+2,59%). Anima collection (+4%) on the day the buyback starts. Generali tonic (+1,8%).
Money on industrialists. Stm recovers (+1,7%), in line with the recovery of the technological ones. Prysmian rebounds (+2,35%).
Stellantis is also up (+2,59%), Leonardo's rally continues (+0,66%) pending the listing of Drs on Wall Street.
ENI ON 20-MONTH HIGHS, SAIPEM DOWN
Eni is also running (+2%), on the highs since February 2020: in addition to the increase in crude oil, the expectation of the IPO of the Gas & Light Renewables division contributes to the increase. On the other hand, Saipem loses hits (-0,95%).
INTERMONTE QUOTES TO AIM, ROMA REBOUNCES
Focus on Safilo (-0,84%). The board of directors defined the details for the launch of the capital increase of 135 million.
Back to snatch Roma As (+15%) after the sharp decline on the eve. Oviesse fell sharply (-9,71%).
Irce +3,64% after Intesa's positive opinion on the company listed on the Star segment and active in the sector of wires for winding electric machines and in the electric cable sector.
Intermonte presented the listing application to Aim. The IMI Corporate & Investment Banking division of Intesa San Paolo will act as Global Coordinator. Edilizia Acrobatica (+3,49%) closed the month of September with a 139% increase in contracts signed, equal to 16,266 million euro.
