The slowdown in the economy does not spare the Dragon. In the third quarter, China's GDP recorded an increase of 7,3%, far below Beijing's target (+7,5%), the lowest since the spring of 2009. To regain a lower growth rate for Chinese economy must be traced back to the early XNUMXs, to the time of Tien An Men. The slowdown is linked above all to the performance of the real estate sector.
The figure, already largely discounted, did not have a negative effect on Hong Kong at 0,7% and Shanghai at +0,3%. Tokyo, on the other hand, fell -0,7%, in the wake of the decline in car stocks, hit by the slowdown in Chinese consumption. The S&P index +0,9% returned above 1900 (closing at 1903) at the end of a positive session, but with reservations. The Dow Jones rose 0,11%, the Nasdaq 1,35%.
However, the market mood is characterized by the utmost caution, given the uncertainties of the situation: the imminent end of US QE, the (sluggish) start of ECB purchases in Europe, the conflict in the Middle East, Ebola and the Hong Kong crisis “they represent – says analyst Jim Wood-Smith , head of research at Hawksmoor Investments – many factors which, isolated, do not have a decisive weight but all together condition the market”.
Much more disappointing was the performance of the European markets. Paris -1%, Frankfurt -1,5%, London down 0,6%. Madrid -0,42%. In Piazza Affari, the Ftse Mib index, after fluctuating between 18414 and 18881, closed the session down by 0,86% to 18.540 points.
The ECB has launched its program for the purchase of short-term covered bonds of various eurozone countries with great caution, with operations of up to 25 million euros, while asset purchases should also begin before the end of the year backed securities (abs). The euro/dollar exchange rate returned to 1,28.
THE BUND ADVANCES AND PUTS BTP AND BONOS UNDER PRESSURE
The Btp Italia maturing in 2020 and with a minimum coupon rate of 1,15% received subscriptions yesterday for an amount equal to 2,955 billion euros, a very modest figure compared to last April's collection, which risks making it difficult to achieve the 100 billion total targeted by the Treasury. Retail orders will be collected until Wednesday, barring early closure, while Thursday will be the turn for the collection of orders from institutional investors.
Meanwhile, tensions over Portugal have caused bonds in the suburbs to retreat. The reaction of the Btp/Bund spread jumped to 173 bp, yielding 2,54%, against 2,22% in Spain. Meanwhile, the race towards "safe havens" continues: the German 0,82-year yield is XNUMX%.
FROM SAP TO IBM, THE CRISIS SINKS HI TECH. BUT THE APPLE HAS PARTY
Here comes another sign of the slowdown in world industry: the crisis in investment in technology. The most targeted sector was that of Tech (Stoxx -2,2%), where the fall of the German company weighed Temple Size, world leader in business software, down 5,6% after the announcement that it will not reach the targets set for 2014. Wall Street did no better than IBM -7,2% after a disappointing quarterly. The IT services giant said it will not achieve the results envisaged for 2015: the new objectives will only be indicated in January. Alcatel fell in Paris by 1,8%, Infineon -1,5%. In Amsterdam Philips it lost 3,6% after announcing lower-than-expected earnings.
StM it fell by 0,9%. Apple goes against the trend: the quarterly accounts close with higher-than-expected profits thanks to the extraordinary success of new products. In the quarter, revenues reached $42,1 billion (vs. a forecast of 40), earnings per share were $1,42 (vs. an estimate of 1,30).
THE CEO OF TOTAL DIES IN AN ACCIDENT. OIL STILL DOWN
A tragedy shakes the world of oil stocks, already under stress due to the continuous decline in oil prices. Last night, in a plane crash near Moscow, the CEO of Total, Christophe de la Margerie, one of the best known and most influential figures in the sector, died. A twist that could have repercussions on prices, already under stress.
In fact, yesterday oil stocks (European Stoxx -2,3%) accelerated their decline, following the new drop in crude oil: Brent at 84,7 dollars a barrel (-1,6%). Eni lost 2,2%, Saipem -2,8% Tenaris -1,6%. In Paris even before the tragedy, Total it was 2,7% down. Among the utilities, a good starting point for Enel +0,3%, included in the Premium list of Société Générale. Enel Green Power loses 0,8%.
MPS TARGET SHOOTING WAITING FOR THE FRANKFURT EXAMS
Expectations on the ECB's banks are holding the table, the results of which will be announced on Sunday 26 October. Under fire MontePaschi -1,8%, after a dramatic opening (-5%), the recovery after the denial of alleged rumors about the stress tests, then down again. In view of the board meeting at the end of October, Odey Asset Management has opened a short position on the bank equal to 0,61% of the capital.
In the rest of the sector, Bpm lost 0,09%, Intesa 0,82% Unicredit -0,90%, Ubi Banca is down 0,26%. In evidence Bper +1,44%, Banco Popolare +0,98%. positive Mediobanca +0,8%. Among the financial UnipolSai loses 3%, Generali -0,2%.
RAIN OF SALES ON MEDIASET. SINKS WDF
Passion day for Mediaset -4,3%, after Bernstein confirmed the share's underperform recommendation and target price at €1,65, but revised his earnings-per-share estimates for this year slightly downwards to €0,03 and those of the next to 0,06 euros. Even more relevant are the fears for the projects of the Murdoch group, intending to launch the launch of free-to-air transmissions of Sky in 2015.
Positive Telecom Italy +0,5%. The storm over Portugal Telecom puts the merger of the Portuguese manager with the Brazilian Oì at risk. One more heavy markdown for World Duty Free -3,9%. Consob communications revealed that on 15 October Fmr (Fidelity) reduced its stake from 10% to 9,8%.
INDUSTRY, PIRELLI AND FINMECCANICA ADVANCE
Among the industrialists, they have gone down Cnh Industrial -2,7% and Prysmian -2,9%. positive Fiat Chrysler + 0,3%. Finmeccanica +0,4% in the wake of rumors according to which a competitive auction could be opened between Hitachi and Cnr/Insigma for the Ansaldo Sts transport division (+0,86% to 8,77 euros).
Pirelli +0,48% benefited both from the agreement with Rosneft to extend the production and supply of synthetic rubber in Nakhodka to a third partner, and from the promotion from underperform to buy by Bank of America (target price raised from 11,6 to 12,8 euros). Finally, the rise of De'Longhi + 4,4%.
