“There is too much pessimism about China, we have to be more rational. And immigration can be a resource for Europe”. Everyone was surprised by Nouriel Roubini's speech at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, which touches on the two most delicate topics of the moment, going against the current with respect to the mood of the markets, still today negative on the Chinese fear (but also on US labor data), and a large part of public opinion and European political orientations on the issue of migrants.
In the days of the photos of the children drowned on the Turkish coasts Roubini, who was born there in Turkey, opens the door: "China's slowdown also involves advanced economies, it is true, but in a relatively limited way: US, EU and Japanese investors they are not so exposed to Beijing”, explains the now ex Dr Doom, known for his catastrophic prophecies and a regular at the event on the shores of Lake Como. “The new situation in China, on the other hand, has greater repercussions on emerging markets, because it puts an end to the super-cycle of commodities, managed very badly by some countries, without making structural reforms”.
The decline in commodities, in particular that of the oil price, instead favors the old economies, especially the European one. But it is not enough to reassure the financial markets, still in turmoil today: "The fear of the markets is not so much the slowdown itself, but rather the credibility of the Chinese ruling class and its ability to manage the transition to a new growth model, more sustainable". After all, well-founded fears, given that Roubini himself admits that "Beijing should have opted for a soft landing, but that's not what he did, preferring shock therapy: now there is a well-founded fear, according to some, that the economy can grow by just 3% in the near future”.
The shock therapy kicked off with the drastic depreciation of the currency, which according to the New York University economist lent itself to two interpretations: “Someone thought that such a devaluation could mean a return to a growth model based on exports, but really it's just about making the currency more flexible. Certainly China will prevent a further collapse, to stem the flight of capital which has already occurred in part and because it would not be consistent with the project to stimulate consumption and domestic demand”.
The optimistic Roubini also surprises on the topic of the moment: migrants. “I made this reasoning: let's also assume that one million people arrive on the coasts of Italy and Europe every year: what are they compared to an area that already has 400 million?”. “The question exists, but it is manageable and must be managed constructively – relaunches the Ambrosetian guru -: migrants can contribute to the demographic and therefore economic revitalization of a continent that is aging and in need of a workforce”.
At the end of the press conference there is also room for a quick assessment of the Italian premier Matteo Renzi, expected just tomorrow at Villa d'Este, an appointment that twelve months ago, in his first year as prime minister, had deserted preferring to visit a factory in the Brescia area. Renzi is only half promoted: “The Italian economy is benefiting from interventions of an international nature, such as the ECB's Qe. As far as government reforms are concerned, the direction is the right one but the timing is not: and in any case much remains to be done".
