Twelve trillion dollars up in smoke. This is, according to the IMF, the bill that Covid-19 will present to the global economy. A knockout blow capable of knocking out the Bull despite the efforts of governments and central banks. Also because the Covid-19 these days punishes the countries that wanted to sing victory over the epidemic well in advance. This is the case of the USA, which yesterday recorded 35 new infections: this is the worst increase since mid-April. Next week, according to the WHO, the figure of ten million infected will be exceeded in the world. The markets have thus shifted into reverse.
Asian stock markets are down: in Tokyo the Nikkei index falls by 1,4%, Sydney -1,8%. Chinese and Hong Kong stock exchanges closed for holidays.
WALL STREET IN RED. EVEN THE NASDAQ STOPS
The slowdown in the recovery was immediately reflected in oil prices: Brent prices fell by 5%, back to the 39 dollar level. Wti below 37 dollars after the surprise increase in US stocks. The losses of oil companies in Piazza Affari were heavy: Tenaris -6,19%, Eni -4,52% and Saipem -4,77%.
Even the US stock markets have reversed course. The major indices posted their steepest decline in two weeks: Dow Jones -2,72%, S&P 500 -2,59%. Even the Nasdaq, interrupting a long positive streak, closed in the red at -2,19%.
DUTIES, PANDEMIC AND IMF KO EUROPE
The rally triggered by European PMIs was short-lived. Although the German confidence index, the Ifo, has achieved a significant improvement (from 79,7 to 86,2), the European stock markets have canceled the previous day's gains on the wave of a mix of negative news. The US retaliations against Airbus weigh heavily (3,1 billion euros), which will be followed by countermeasures according to a scheme that has not even been affected by the Covid-19 emergency.
Lastly, the cut in the estimates of the Monetary Fund contributed to completing the negative picture: the world economy will contract this year by 4,9%, or 1,9 percentage points worse than the April estimates. And, in 2021, the rebound will be +5,4%, 0,40 points lower than expected in April.
MILAN -3,4%. IMF: GDP ITALY 2020 A -12,8%
Milan left 3,42% on the ground, falling to 19.162 points: the assault on 20 has failed once again.
The International Monetary Fund has further reduced its estimates on Italian GDP for 2020, bringing them to -12,8% compared to the -9,1% estimated two months ago. However, the Fund estimates a more marked recovery for 2021 than that assumed in April: +6,3% from the previous +4,8%.
The 2020 debt rises considerably, which in the Fund's forecasts rises to 166,1% in relation to GDP from 155,5% in April, while in 2021 it should fall to 161,9%. The deficit/GDP ratio also increased sharply, to 12,7% from 8,3% in April and in 2021 to 7% from 3,5%.
VOLKSWAGEN TOWARDS EUROPCAR. AIRBUS -5%
The losses of the four squares in the crosshairs of US duties are also heavy because they belong to countries that are shareholders or in any case partners of Airbus.
Frankfurt -3,6%. Volkswagen, according to Reuters, is close to buying Europcar, the leading car rental company in Europe: the title flew by 18% and then closed at +1,8%.
Paris -2,92%: Airbus lost 5%.
Madrid -3,29%. The Spanish government will stick to its "cautious" forecasts regarding the gradual recovery of the economy in the second half of 2020. This was reported by Economy Minister Nadia Calvino, reiterating the forecast of a contraction of 9,2% for 2020 published in early May.
LSE TOWARDS THE SALE OF MTS. THE CDP ON TRACK
London -3,12%. Accelerates the London Stock Exchange's sale plan of Mts. The topic will be the subject of a table discussion today at the Bank of Italy: the hypothesis of an operation curated by the Cdp and its French cousin Caisse as part of an agreement with Euronext to create a community champion in the ambit is gaining momentum of the Capital Market Union.
TODAY THE AUCTION BOT. AUSTRIA PLACES 100 YEARS AT 0,88%
Btp hardly moved, with spreads and 2022-year rates remaining at their lowest since March, awaiting the month-end auction round. Today we start with the placement of the Ctz May 2026 and the new Btpei May XNUMX.
In closing, the spread was 171 basis points, from 168 on the previous day. The 10-year yield closes at 1,249%.
Austria priced a 100 billion euro 2-year bond with a yield of 0,88%. Orders for the security on 30 June 2120 exceeded 17,7 billion euros.
GENERALI TOWARDS 25% OF CATTOLICA
Big shot of the Lion. Generali is preparing to grow in Cattolica Assicurazioni (-0,55%) through the subscription of a reserved capital increase of 300 million at the price of 5,55 euro per new share. In addition, Cattolica will launch a capital increase of up to 200 million euro, which Generali will have the option of subscribing on a pro-rata basis. At the end of the operation, Generali will have approximately 24,4% of the Veneto company, which will be transformed into a joint stock company after 124 years of cooperative history.
FCA -4,4%: GOVERNMENT YES TO THE LOAN
The go-ahead for the public guarantee on the 6,3 billion euro loan to the Italian subsidiary of Fiat Chrysler, confirmed by Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri, did not slow down share sales (-4,4%), which practically thwarted the rally of the eve. The decline is in line with the Volkswagen sector (-6,7%) on the day of the reopening of all the group's factories.
Other industrialists also fell sharply: Industrialists also fell sharply, starting with Cnh Industrial (-5,84%), Pirelli (-5,06%) and Leonardo (-4,59%).
CAMPARI GOES DUTCH, TIM BENEFITS THANKS TO INWIT
Campari also made a loss (-2,57%): all the conditions necessary to approve the re-domiciliation of the registered office in the Netherlands were met.
Tim dropped sharply (-4,46%) on which Ubs reduced the target price to 0,23 euro from 0,41 euro, confirming the sell rating. The company has reached an agreement with Ardian for the sale of a 30,2% stake in the co-controlling stake in Inwit currently held by Tim (the other stake belongs to Vodafone Italia). Upon completion of the operation, the Consortium will hold a 49% stake in the Holding's capital against Tim's 51%. The value of the operation is 1 billion euros.
ATLANTIA, THE GAME DOESN'T UNLOCK
Atlantia closed in the red (-2,63%), the only stock on positive ground in the morning, pending a possible agreement with the Government, after the meeting between President Conte and the ministers of the Treasury Gualtieri and Infrastructures De Micheli on the dossier Aspi. But the white smoke hasn't arrived yet.
Deep red for credit securities: Mediobanca -5,72%. Losses exceeding 5% also for Banca Bpm and for Bper. Ubi -3,5%. Among the big names, Unicredit -4,25%, better Intesa (-2,61%).
Letter also among the mid caps: Dovalue (-6,83%), Ivs (-6,72%) and Astm (-5,42%) lose ground.
AIM, CYBERSECURITY BOOM. CY4GATE DEBUT AT +27%
Debut with a bang on Aim for Cy4Gate (+27,62%). The security of the cybersecurity company was placed with 65 institutional investors, 70% Italian, 30% foreign.
