Greece's finances deteriorated further “because Athens has been too slow to implement reforms necessary economics". The International Monetary Fund says so in an analysis presented to the executive board on June 26 and presented today, which underlines how last year a drop in Greek debt was forecast to 128% of GDP: now the debt has returned to travel towards 150% by 2020. In the event of economic shocks, as in the Grexit Hypothesis, according to the always estimated by the IMF, the debt/GDP would travel in 2017 at around 200%.
Reason why, according to the Fund, the Greece needs fresh funds from its European creditors for a return to debt sustainability, which could instead skyrocket in the event of Grexit. However, the Fund calculates a need for additional financing of 50,2 billion between October this year and December 2018. Recognizing the unsustainability of the debt in Athens, the Washington-based institute explains how the reform efforts in the last year have been scarce and that the Hellenic nation must get back on track but to restore breath to the exhausted finances of the country "at a minimum, the maturity of the European loans must be extended significantly while new European financing will have to be provided in similar terms so that Athens can meet its financial needs for years to come.” Furthermore, the situation will only get worse if commitments on the reform front weaken further, so much so that "debt haircuts will become necessary", argues the IMF.
Meanwhile, Greece's exit from the euro comes second Standard & Poor's, it would cost Italy 11 billion euros to finance the debt. This is what emerges from a simulation on the effects of Grexit, on which more will be known next week, after the outcome of the referendum called by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras: according to the US rating agency, the main impact would on the capital market as it would return a component of risk to the bonds of countries considered more vulnerable.
S&P calculates that for 2015 and 2016 the public debt financing of countries should go up by 30 billion, but this increase will be unevenly distributed. L'Italy should face thegreater increase with 11 billion euros.
