The dollar's rise this morning signals the widespread uncertainty at the beginning of a week of high voltage. The US has ordered the evacuation of the family members of the Kiev embassy staff and is planning to send troops to the Baltic countries. But the strength of the US currency, traded at 1,1319, is also linked to the expectation of the decisions that the Fed will announce on Wednesday evening. In the meantime, oil rises, Bitcoin plummets. Here is the framework of a general picture in which Italy occupies a special place, awaiting the start, at 15 pm, of the votes for the Quirinale, the key appointment of European politics. But the focus for now is more on the possible rebound of the Nasdaq. After Friday's crash, the future signals a timid attempt to recover.
FOREIGNERS REDISCOVER SHANGHAI, WEAK HONG KONG
- The most encouraging note comes from China. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists gains 0,5%. Bloomberg reports that in recent weeks, it was mainly large foreign investors who chose China's stock market: since the beginning of the year, the Hang Seng China index has beaten the CIS index denominated in yuan by 10%.
- Taiwan's great enemies were also positive +0,4% amid new signs that the chip crisis is destined to last at least until 2024.
- Tokyo's Nikkei +0,1%, from -1,3% tonight. Kospi of Seoul -1,5%. Hong Kong -0,9%. Sydney's S&P ASX200 -1,1%.
GOLD LITTLE MOVED, BITCOIN STILL STAGGERS
- WTI oil was up 0,8% to $85,8 a barrel. Gold moved little (+0,3% to 1,836 dollars), Bitcoin is stationary around 35 thousand dollars (against the maximum of 69 thousand).
STOP BONDS WAITING FOR THE FED
- The 1,77-year Treasury Notes trade at approximately XNUMX%. In recent days, the expectation of a rate hike of fifty basis points already in March has been reduced, the consensus forecasts three-four increases in the cost of money during the year, but there are also those who expect five or even more.
US FUTURES UP SLIGHTLY, THE BIG ACCOUNTS ARE COMING
The start of voting for the Quirinale coincides with the start of a crucial week both on the geopolitical front and for monetary policy. In a context, moreover, full of corporate events that fall after the worst start to the year for the US markets since the days of the 2008 crisis for the Nasdaq (-16%) and since March 2020 for the S&P.
The spotlight of the markets will focus on FOMC summit, the monetary committee of the Fed, in meeting tomorrow and Wednesday. According to forecasts, Jay Powell should confirm a first rate hike since March. It is possible that the president of the US central bank will also announce the start of the reduction of the federal budget (9 trillion dollars) starting next week.
The Fed's decisions will fall in the middle of the budget campaign of the leading companies in the US stock exchanges. The accounts of Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Intel and Mc Donald's are expected during the week, to name a few of the most representative names. The forecast is for an average growth in profits of 24 percent. However, it is difficult to anticipate the reaction of the markets, stressed by the disappointing results of Netflix.
PMI DATA TODAY, WEIGHTS EXPENSIVE ENERGY
Beyond monetary policy, however, the indicators of the sentiment of the economies under pressure from Omicron will dominate the data publication calendar. The PMI indices on the manufacturing activity of the main European countries will be released this morning, an opportunity to assess the impact of closures, interruptions to production chains and soaring energy costs.
“With the current abnormal energy prices, eroded margins, the scarcity of commodities and the increase in infections, the risk is that the GDP will suffer a stop in the first quarter: at least -0,8% the impact of the expensive- energy on GDP in 2022”, warns the Confindustria Study Center: “The increase in energy prices is affecting Italian industry” while “the high levels of contagion are holding back the consumption of services”.
COMING IFO AND US GDP
It will be only the first of the economic indicators of the week. Tuesday will be the turn of the Ifo, one of the most awaited data because Germany has recorded a modest recovery in 2021. That is why it will be important to find out whether the upheavals along the supply chains and the fourth wave of Covid-19 are weighing on business confidence or it is reasonable to expect a sharp rebound in 2022. The US Consumer Confidence Index will be released on Wednesday. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index from Germany and US Consumer Durables Orders data will be the focus of attention on Thursday. At the end of the week it will be the turn of preliminary data on German GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021 and the Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan.
US GDP for the fourth quarter is also expected on Friday: +5,8% expected.
INTERIM DIVIDEND FOR ENEL AND SNAM
The Piazza Affari calendar calls for the payment of the interim dividend of Enel (0,19 euro) and Snam (0,1048) today.
Unicredit's 2021 data will be published on Friday.
LABRIOLA'S DEBUT SHAKES THE TLC
Tim's navigation under the Pietro Labriola license plate begins today, awaiting Wednesday's board of directors in which the manager will present the plan for the separation between the network infrastructure and services. Iliad's landline service will also make its debut on Tuesday which, according to rumors, aims at an alliance (or even a merger in Italy) with Vodafone in an anti-Telecom function.
